European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - September 23, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 16 the stars and stripes tuesday september 23,1990fears hold Stock prices Down by Chet Currier a business writer the bears look like runaway winners As the Stock Market Heads into the Homestretch of 1990. With the arrival of autumn on Wall Street Stock prices Are close to their lowest Levels of the year. Fears abound the spectres of War in the persian Gulf a recession in the Domestic Economy and possible new shocks to a worldwide banking and financial system that seems ill prepared to absorb them. Chairman Alan Greenspan of the Federal Reserve has told Congress that he has limited options in trying to stimulate the Economy Given inflationary pressures that have been aggravated by soaring Oil prices. More than a year after profits of corporate America went into a slump Wall Street analysts Are still Busy lowering their earnings projections for the last part of this year and the Early stages of 1991. A the probability of recession mounts yet stocks remain overvalued says forecaster Martin Zweig in the new Issue of his advisory letter the Zweig forecast. A the major risk is that if recession bites the Mountain of debt in the Economy will  for most of the time since Early August Wall Street has been preoccupied with the tensions in the Middle East arising from iraqis aug. 2 invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent upsurge in world Oil prices. But other concerns have crept into the picture a fears of More bad news from the beleaguered banking Industry and strains on the budgets of the Federal government and some state and local governments. Amid All that gloom a Good Many analysts still see reasons for optimism about the intermediate and Lon term Outlook for stocks and Bonds. Most of the problems confronting the markets Are characteristic of the business Cycle after a prolonged expansion they say and Are obscuring important Long term growth opportunities such As the opening up of much of Eastern Europe and Asia to capitalism. Quot you can make a very bullish Case for the rest of this decade a contends Harold Mackinney at Fleet no Star financial group in Providence . Such reassurances did no to carry much weight with Wall Street traders in the past week however. The Dow Jones average of 30 industrials dropped 51.73 Points to 2,512.38. The new York Stock Exchange composite Index fell 3.12 to 171.03 the Nash a composite Index for the Over the counter Market dropped 12.17 to 362.25, and the american Stock Exchange Market value Index was Down 9.44 at 316.01. Volume on the big Board averaged 149.08 million shares a Day against 174.15 million the week before. Some observers believe the Federal reserves dilemma will be resolved possibly in the not too Distant future As the dangers posed by credit problems and slumping economic conditions become clearer. A the Federal Reserve has every reason to ease monetary policy and bring interest rates lower a maintain analysts at the investment management firm of Wright investors service. A initially following such a move toward easing it is possible that Bond Market investors May somewhat perversely push Bond yields higher for fear of the inflationary implications of the feds easing. But later this year or Early next year a Bull Market rally in Bonds is expected to get under Way. A if the present weakness in employment production and incomes persists inflation pressures will move Down once the temporary boost from higher Oil prices moves through the system a Wright argues. A recession is by far a greater threat to the . Economy than  deadline nears for cashing old Federal government checks Washington apr if you re holding a Federal government Check dated before oct. 1, 1989 a there Are 5.5 million of you out there a you have one week to Cash it. That does no to mean you can to get another one but you la have to go to the government and ask for a replacement. Americans Are sitting on Between $2.5 billion and $3 billion in government checks More than a year old according to Andy Montgomery a spokesman for the Treasury departments financial management service. A Law that went into effect a year ago requires people with checks issued before last oct. 1 to Cash them not later than sept. 30. The new Law also requires people receiving checks written after last oct 1 to Cash them within a year. All government checks now Bear the reminder void after one year. After the deadline the checks Are automatically cancelled. Until now government checks were Good indefinitely. The deadline does not affect the governments liability the financial management service emphasizes. But once a Check is cancelled a person must go to the Federal Agency that wrote it for a replacement. Iraqi Grain imports expected to total 1.75 million tons  the Washington Post Washington the department of agriculture contradicting the official . Position on the effectiveness of sanctions against Iraq predicts that 1.75 million tons of Grain will find their Way to that county by next july in Defiance of the United nations Trade embargo. Commodity Industry sources questioned the assessment saying that it would be almost inconceivable for ships to run the naval blockade of iraqi ports with significant quantities of Grain. The sources agreed that it is possible at least in the Short term for Small undetected shipments to Cross land Borders from neighbouring countries. The Usdan a prediction was contained in its monthly report on the world s Grain markets. It predicted that Iraq will import i million tons of wheat 350,000 tons of Rice and 400,000 tons of Barley and other coarse grains Between july 1, 1990, and june 30,1991. The total represents a Sharp reduction from the country a Normal level of imports in recent years Iraq has imported about 3 million tons each year of wheat and wheat flour alone. But it u much higher than estimates by . Officials of the amount that would be Able to slip by the . Embargo. A we have a group of analysts from various agencies that give us their Best estimates based on a number of factors a said James r. Donald chairman of the Usdan a world agricultural Outlook Board authors of the report. A if you ask me today the 1.75 million tons is a valid number. We will sit Down again on oct. 11 to examine new  Donald declined to describe what factors the Outlook Board evaluated in making its analysis. Department sources said however that the Only Way Iraq could in Eort significant quantities of Grain would e to bring it in by land from Iran Turkey Syria or Jordan. All of those nations Are participating in the embargo however As Are the United states and All other major Grain exporting countries. The official . Position on the embargo imposed after iraqis aug. 2 invasion of Kuwait is that it is almost totally effective and is already causing shortages of Staple food items. A a Iraq a exports Are being blocked in the High 90 percentile a John Kelly assistant Secretary of state told Congress last week. A iraqi imports Are blocked in the Low 90s.�?� for Iraq to obtain Grain said commodity Industry sources one of its neighbors would have to relax economic sanctions or private individuals would have to smuggle the Grain across Borders in Defiance of the embargo. Both methods say commodity Industry analysts would eventually be detected. A if they tried to Send ships the blockade would turn them away said Steven a. Mccoy the president of the North american Export Grain association which represents major . And Canadian Grain Export companies. A so we re talking about Grain smuggled in Over land a Mccoy added. He said Grain companies and the us a Are aware of most if not All Large commodity shipments to major importing countries like Iraq which normally buys 70 percent of its foodstuffs overseas. \ \sv,.a f is a a Mph Fllch sleek and solar a Honda claims the prototype that it wants to enter in a world solar car contest is capable of cruising at speeds up to 75 Miles an hour. The single seat Auto has 1,900 solar cells placed Over its Flat body two front wheels and one rear wheel. The contest is scheduled for november in Australia. Canada Union negotiators Settle on contract with Ford Toronto apr Canadian Auto workers Union negotiators and Ford of Canada reached a Deal on a new 3-year contract Friday that could end a walkout by 12,800 striking workers at nine Canadian plants. Workers will hold a ratification vote sunday and could be Back on the Job monday if they accept the proposed contract said Canadian Auto workers president Robert White. The 12,800-member Ford department of the Auto workers struck Ford motor  Canadian subsidiary at Midnight sept. 14, mainly Over wages. Negotiators for both sides met through the night and worked out the final details Friday morning before announcing the agreement. Under the proposed agreement wages will increase by 7.5 percent in the first year 6.7 percent in the second and 4.8 percent in the third the Union said. That Means workers now earning the base rate of 17.83 Canadian dollars $15.46 . An hour will earn 21.41 Canadian dollars $18.57 . By the end of the contract workers also will get three extra Days off a year