European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 14, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 a the stars and stripes wednesday november 14,1990 columns William Safir Iraq playing for time to build nuclear bomb president Bush sent his Secretary of state to inform our allies that a military strike at Saddam Hussein has been postponed until a period a Between Christmas and Ramadan a a late january is now the Best guess when the . Military s last Kitchen sink is in place in saudi Arabia. As the moment of decision approaches however the iraqi Leader is Likely to launch a peace offensive. He May offer to meet the visiting president Bush in Cairo later this month or to dispatch his jordanian puppet to Paris with an offer to discuss withdrawal from Kuwait which president Mitterrand would leap at. This would be a rehash of the phony iraqi proposal that everyone withdraw from everywhere but a Christmas wrapping would provide a pretext for delay. Why does Saddam Hussein play for time this Way a bringing in a Parade of political Paloukas and has beens from Jesse Jackson and Kurt Waldheim to Ted Heath and assorted German and japanese rejects a trickling out some hostages As he rounds up replacements the reason is that every month Iraq goes a bombed brings it a step closer to production of nuclear weapons. Once he gets his Saddam bomb no land Force no matter How powerful would dare invade and As his Tammuz missile is perfected he can impose nuclear blackmail on the superpowers. Of but that a years away says the burgeoning appeasement movement. Maybe hell get religion or get overthrown or die of natural causes Between now and then besides arabs Are not scientists a the West will refuse to help and hell never build the bomb. Lets throw a couple of unrevealed facts at that racist notion. At the Airport in Frankfurt Germany just three weeks before the invasion of Kuwait German customs inspected a curious shipment of a thousand Metal parts on its Way from Switzerland to Iraq. German technicians were called in and tested the Metal it was a strategic material known As �?o350-Grade managing steel a its exportation controlled because the High tensile strength Alloy is used in High Speed Gas centrifuges. German police sensitive to charges in the press that past laxity had led to iraqi and libyan Poison Gas production in Anthony Lewis to paix a Tiki a pounded the shipment and tipped off High level officials in Switzerland. Swiss authorities realized that their customs inspectors had been either incredibly naive or had been corrupted. Three weeks later just after iraqi forces swept into Kuwait Swiss police raided a production facility a half hours drive from Bern. Five computer controlled lathes were found there being readied for shipment to Iraq under the Guise of optical machinery along with 30 Centrifuge parts similar to those seized in Frankfurt. The dismaying discovery the handful of sophisticated machines remaining to be shipped were the Tail end of a Large order that had already been delivered to Iraq a with the approval of Swiss customs. What a the big Deal about High tech lathes and Centrifuge parts ask any atomic scientist this Means that Iraq is now today in the business of producing Gas centrifuges on its own. With the first few thousand off the line a a a cascades can be set up to separate u-235 from uranium in a gaseous state. Each Cascade can turn out 50 pounds of weapons Grade uranium a enough for a City destroying atom bomb a every three months. The Point in All this technical stuff is that Saddam Hussein has achieved the ability to make his own Arsenal without More outside help. We could keep on an airtight embargo or we could Cut a Deal that includes his Heartfelt Promise to let us inspect civilian reactors neither strategy would Stop him from building bombs at a variety of secret Sites. Under a sense of urgency even greater than at our world War ii a Manhattan project a iraqis working by themselves will produce deliverable bombs much sooner than our complacent analysts predict. Look its always possible that my information is All wet. Or perhaps another a1 Qaq a explosion the investigation of which Cost the reporter Farzad Bazot Bis life will set Back bomb production. Or maybe a coup or heart attack or mid life crisis will remove the Saddam threat. All Are Long shot possibilities a but Are we willing to bet the world on them we face a dictator who has caused a million casualties created a million refugees reintroduced the horror of Poison Gas and kidnaps civilians for use As human Shields. He has demonstrated he will Stop at nothing to extend his Rule. All he needs is time and with each passing month with each escalation of preparation with each excuse for diplomatic delay a time is exactly what we re giving him. C new York times logic says Bush plans to use military Force if Saddam Hussein does not withdraw from Kuwait by Early in the new year president Bush intends to use military Force against him. That is the inescapable logic of Bush a decision to Send massive additional . Force do the persian Gulf. By then the United states will have nearly half a million men and women in the Gulf. To Send such a Force and then bring it Home without achieving Saddam Hussein a withdrawal would be a staggering defeat for the United states and for All its allies one that Bush surely does not contemplate. Or her hand a it a Force of that size cannot remain in the saudi desert indefinitely a not in terms of its own morale or in terms of local feelings. And beginning in March the Muslim holy month of Ramadan will inhibit action. That is the logic of War Early in 1991. Of course Bush would prefer to avoid War. His decision to Send More troops can be seen As what the Senate majority Leader George Mitchell called a the threat of War to prevent  but the threat is credible Only if the president is really prepared to carry it out. We must assume that he is. But that raises profound questions that neither he nor we have yet faced. When Bush made the announcement about the further buildup in the Gulf a reporter asked him a do you feel that you Are free to take offensive action without any kind of . Resolution authorizing it a he replied a yes. We have  if Bush believes that and acts on it he will be making a tragic mistake for his country and himself. For he lacks the authority essential to take a democratic country into a costly War support in Law and in the opinion of his people. In Law the presidents claim is dubious. The assertion that the United states could act unilaterally now without authorization by the . Security Council seems to rest on article 51 of the . Charter which recognizes the a inherent right of individual or collective  but the charter says that right exists Only a until the Security Council has taken the necessary measures to maintain International peace and  if the Council does not act then the individual country would be free to carry on. But Here the Council has acted at the request of the United states we have recognized and relied on its authority. The Legal argument is in Accord with the political really. The Bush administration went to the United nations because it wanted the broadest possible coalition against Iraq. If it acted unilaterally now it would destroy the hard won consensus. When Secretary of state Baker toured Allied capitals last week he was told in most places that United nations authority should be sought for military action. That was in All likelihood the answer he wanted. In any event . Approval is necessary if we want to keep the coalition together. Then there Are the More fateful questions of Ameri can Law and american politics. Can the president conceivably be thinking of ordering military action on h own without the approval of Congress presidents have taken the United states into All Kint of wars on their own in the last 50 years. But this Tim there can be no excuse of sudden attack or hidden Dot Velo ments. To decide for War without a con ression declaration would be constitutional and political Folk on a disastrous scale. Henry Kissinger has not been known for def ence to Congress to put it mildly. But writing in the los Angeles times be said the administration my involve Congress in any decision for military action and it must explain to the Public what our nation interest is in the  must not be Given the impression the they have a duty to go. To War against every evil Leader i the  said. They a need to unde stand Why this specific aggression by this a Artiuh Leader if unchecked will in time threaten their of  by acting decisively As he did in August George bus prevented an iraqi takeover of saudi Arabia with Terr ble consequences for the world. Now he must convince Congress and the Public that the stakes Are Worth the risk of War. Only by doing so can he convince Saddam Husser that he must fear military action. C new York times