European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 26, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Monday november 26, 1990 the stars and stripes a a a Page 3crisis in the null Iraq seeks simple solutions to . Might by Patrick e. Tyler new York times iraqi military commanders Are taking Steps to offset the technological superiority that will be the United states major military advantage in any persian Gulf conflict american defense and intelligence specialists say. The experts say the iraqis Are developing Low technology solutions such As anti aircraft barrages from infantry that in effect a mine the sky against Low flying aircraft which might otherwise inflict devastating strikes. The conclusion is the result of a Broad review of the iraqi military in which american analysts have also decided that the passage of time is rapidly degrading iraqi military ability and some of the advanced weapons in. Baghdad s Arsenal through maintenance difficulties. The american officials say the iraqi commanders realize that the . And Allied forces have Many High technology weapons that Iraq has not encountered before on the Battlefield. A the iraqis have never faced anything like we would present them if we executed a successful air land Battle with close air support a said it. Col. Douglas v. Johnson ii co author of a recently published study of the iraqi army for the strategic studies Institute of the army War College. A the electronic warfare we could wage against them they have not experienced  but government specialists and defense officials involved in the Pentagon a daily intelligence assessment of the iraqi occupation army in and around Kuwait say iraqi commanders Are showing the industriousness and adaptability they exhibited in their final successful military operations against Iran. In recent weeks the iraqi air Force has conducted High Altitude interception exercises with its soviet made Mig-25 fighters in what appears to be preparation to defend against american b-52 bombers according to one government specialist on Iraq. The b-52s, capable of flying at altitudes up to 30,000 feet with payloads of 30 tons per aircraft will be an important element of any Allied attack on iraqi forces military officials say. The iraqi exercises along with defensive preparations at iraqi air bases suggest that iraqis military command will seek to protect its air Force from destruction during the opening phase of a War so its pilots could undermine Allied air supremacy through attrition attacks that divert Allied pilots from other tasks the official said. He said Iraq has three fortified hangar Sites for each of the combat aircraft in its air Force which will improve their chances of surviving bombing raids and missile attacks. Iraqi air defense commanders have been improving their ability to counter the threat from Low level attacks by Allied warplanes military officials say. In the last two months they have moved hundreds of anti aircraft batteries into the War zone to protect their ground forces. To safeguard their anti aircraft systems from radar seeking missiles in the Western Arsenal iraqi air defense commanders May employ tactics that use radar sparingly to spot enemy planes. They would then launch anti aircraft missiles in the path of oncoming planes in Hopes that some missiles would get close enough to lock onto their targets. . Officials say they expect iraqi forces to employ a zone of fire tactics a soldiers firing their assault rifles and anti aircraft weapons into one quadrant of the sky to Block an approaching Aerial attack. This method used by the North vietnamese successfully against . Helicopters is virtually impossible to counter military experts say. Discontent plots brewing behind the scenes in Iraq Nicosia Cyprus apr iraqis fractious opposition groups Are plotting ways to topple what they nope will be a weakened Saddam Husser if he survives an attack to Force him to give up Kuwait. But some Middle East analysts believe that if the iraqi dictator is ousted or killed Iraq would be plunged into chaos. Others believe that under International supervision a democratic government could be established to preserve order. Even so a crippled Iraq would face a period of turbulence. A one May find that there a a vacuum at the Center in Iraq which would Lead to a breakdown of authority a said analyst Philip Robins at London a Royal Institute of International affairs. A total chaos could not be ruled out a he said. A a lot depends on How he goes and who perpetrates his  Robins is among those who believe Saddam so most Likely threat would come from within his immediate circles whether that be the military or the intelligence apparatus or civilian  Western analysts in Baghdad have said iraqis army is showing signs of disorder because of Supply problems purges of High ranking officers sinking morale and desertions. Analysts familiar with iraqis military machine said the recent Surprise replacement of the chief of staff it. Gen. Nizar Al Khazravi indicated opposition to the strategy of holding onto Kuwait. There is believed to be significant discontent because Saddam conceded to Iran a demands for a final peace in the 1980-88 War Between the two nations. Saddam made the concessions shortly after he invaded Kuwait on aug. 2, in effect relinquishing gains made in the War with Iran. The new chief of staff Gen. Hussein Rashid was commander of the elite Republican guard. But some analysts believe even the current situation might not be Safe for Saddam. A the rest of the army May be neutralized a said Bernard Trainor a former . Marine general who has made several visits to Iraq. A but the Republican guard could turn against him if he takes them Down the Road to National suicide a said Trainor now head of the National Security program at Harvard University a Kennedy school of government. The iraqi opposition groups operate outside the country and they Are trying to prepare for the future even if there is no military action. For More than a month they have been meeting in Syria to a reunite the iraqi opposition which might overthrow the iraqi regime even without War a said Mohammed Bakir Hakim head of the Tehran based iraqi revolutionary supreme Council. Syria ruled by a Wing of the baath socialist party that has Long been at Odds with rival baathist in Baghdad is sponsoring the Damascus conference. Robins said the meeting underscores How the opposition groups Are trying to overcome differences. Still a a there a Little basis of support for any of the groups in Iraq and no Strong individual to fill Saddam a shoes he said. The two dozen opposition groups fall into four major categories Arab nationalists leftists kurd and islamic activists. A we want a democratic government to have a free election and the kurd should be represented in the government genuinely a said Hosh Yir Zebari the London based spokesman for the Kurdistan democratic party. A most Likely you would find a coalition  he said the West has been ambiguous in its strategy. A is it to get Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait or is it to depose him a Zebari asked. He said that getting rid of Saddam a is the Only Way peace could prevail in the  president Bush strongly hinted last week during a visit to saudi Arabia that destroying Saddam a military might is his prime objective. He told . Troops thursday that their Mission was marked by a a real sense of urgency because of iraqis drive to achieve nuclear weapons capability. If that development were left unchecked Saddam would remain a great threat Bush said. If Saddam goes there is the danger of a clash Between the opposition groups whose fractious Ness has stopped them from challenging Saddam a totalitarian Rule. Some fear that the kurd who have been battling Baghdad for decades for an autonomous Homeland would seek to establish an Independent state in iraqis mountainous North. However Zebari said a a we a have a genuine interest in maintaining peace in the Region. And establish a genuine democratic  the islamic groups face the Specter of Iran slate Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. His exhortations to iraqis shiite moslem majority during the 1980-88 War to Rise up against Saddam did not work. A but suspicions linger that if Saddam were toppled the shiites some 55 percent of iraqis 16 million people might try to create an iranian style islamic Republic in Iraq. Saddam Hussein. What happens after him a amps Steve Taylor treats for troops Christina Fox 5, of Munich Germany meticulously paints one of 93 care packages prepared for desert shield troops by 125 girl scouts brownies and daisies from the Munich military Community. The boxes of goodies contain Pine Cone Christmas Trees ornaments Gingerbread cookies books hand painted cards and other donated  s lawmakers criticize Western intervention in Gulf Amman Jordan up a the lower House of parliament on saturday slammed the .-led intervention in the Gulf and condemned its Arab allies. The criticism was the lawmakers first official response since the Start of the Gulf crisis and the reconvening of parliament last week. In a reply to King Hussein a speech last week the lower House said the foreign forces were deployed in the Gulf a to achieve their greed in their Hegemony Over our wealth of  Hussein criticized Western intervention in the Gulf and said it obstructed any possibility of finding a solution within the Arab framework