European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - August 23, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Friday August 23, 1991 the stars and stripes Page 13 commentary Susan Eisenhowe soviets must take hold of economic watching the scenes from Moscow on tuesday one was sobered by the Odds against the democratic forces. Despite that they exuded a Confidence enhanced by the fact that no Boris n. Yeltsin supporters had been arrested. It reminded one of the Early Days of Tiana men Square when a people Power seemed enough to overcome any obstacle the authoritarian regime might put in the demonstrators Way. However the february revolution of 1917 produced virtually no immediate arrests and the travelling population was free to leave and enter Russia pretty much at will. The provisional government was doomed not by the presence of resistance but by the fact that it had no specific plan for addressing the country a problems. Eventually the disintegrating Economy and the Public unrest overwhelmed it and brought about the bolshevik coup. The bolsheviks also started out with a tolerance for opposition. It was not until they held elections for the constituent Assembly in december and received Only 25 percent of the electoral vote that real repression began. It was precisely this Lack of support that prompted the bolsheviks to commence the ruthless crackdown that spanned decades. The now ousted members of the committee for the state of emergency no doubt know their russian history. Its members also know that the fight under Way right now is for the hearts and the minds of the a Lumpen proletariat a who make up the vast majority of the working population and who Are essentially apolitical. Last summer for instance during the dangerous a cigarette rebellion a people Laid their bodies across Tram tracks to protest the shortage of cigarettes and tobacco. These protests did no to distinguish Between communism and democracy. This vast but silent majority will support whomever comes Forward who can address their abysmal living and working Jill Lawrence conditions and put bread on the table. Given the ferocity of complaints and dissatisfaction among Ordinary people during Mikhail s. Gorbachev a last Days before the coup the new regime had Good reason to believe that its Appeal to Rescue the soviet Union from chaos and hunger would have resonance in Many parts of the population. They were probably Only too mindful of the populations mood. Black humor jokes about Public uprisings had been circulating in the capital for months. A Good Case can be made that the timing of this coup was staged now not just because of the signing of the Union treaty but also to ensure that the authoritarian regime could mobilize a and coerce if necessary a the human and material resources to get through the Winter. They did not however have any Long term plans. In the emergency Resolution that was released monday the emergency committee decreed for instance that a taking into account the critical situation in harvesting and the threat of famine. Enterprises and office workers and employees students and servicemen in the necessary numbers should be promptly sent to the country to save the  it also stated that a the Cabinet of ministers should Complete within two weeks the drawing up of plans for emergency measures to be taken to pull the country a fuel and Power Complex out of the crisis and prepare for  the democratic response to the coup has been both stirring and heroic and Yeltsin and his followers deserve our deepest admiration and support. However the prospects for democracy and eventually a Market Economy will depend on the improvement of some of the catastrophic problems that the coun try faces. With inflation at 100 percent to 300 percent and rising unemployment the situation is made worse by the fact that 80 per cent of All machine building in the soviet Union is arms related. With significant layoffs As part of the painful conversion process one can begin to Sec the Depths of the crisis for both the Short term and the Lon term development of the country. Americans should abandon any Hope they have that the confrontation has yielded real winners and losers. The Only thing that will stabilize the political situation in the soviet Union is an improvement in the Economy. And that can to be done until a Well thought through plan is adopted that will allow for self determination. Such an element is crucial for providing the incentive and the inspiration acc Essaiy to stimulate the soviet people to take ownership of their problems and get Down to the hard work of rebuilding their future. Until that happens there could be a protracted Power struggle that could create a further drop in production and a continued deterioration of the Economy. Such an eventuality could ultimately Herald in a Force More dangerous than anything we have seen since the october revolution of 1917. Editor s note Eisenhower is dlr Octor of the Contor for the study of soviet change a Washington based research and Public outreach organization Gorbachev s critics Savouring their sameness they struck a discordant note for years by insisting that Mikhail s. Gorbachev could not last that . Policy toward the soviet Union had grown too dependent on the Uncertain future of one Maii. But now the doomsayers seem prescient and they re not shy about it. A a i am one of those who said years ago a done to let Gorb mania allow you to take your eyes off the Ball a a sen. Alfonse do Amato r-n.y., said after Gorbachev was removed from office monday. A a i have been warning All along about relying totally on one Man in the soviet Union a said former Secretary of state Henry Kissinger. A slew of monday morning quarterbacks has emerged in the Wake of the soviet coup prompting conservative analyst Frank Gaffney to comment a a they re coming out of the Woodwork now. Where were they yesterday a Gorbachev generated so much optimism that voices of caution sounded jarring. But there were a few a conservative analysts and lawmakers even a former president and two members of the Bush administration a who resisted the euphoria. Some warned against making policy decisions based on Trust in Gorbachev a longevity some urged the administration to support the soviet republics desire for Independence and develop relations with democratic reformers outside the Central soviet government. More than two years ago with communism still choking Eastern Europe defense Secretary Dick Cheney offered a strikingly grim and accurate prognosis. A i would guess that he would ultimately fail a Cheney said of Gorbachev in an april 1989 interview on can. A that is to say that he will not be Able to Reform the soviet Economy to turn it into an efficient modern society. And when that happens he a Likely to be replaced by somebody who will be far More hostile than he a been in terms of his attitude toward the  following Cheney a statements president Bush hastily assured the world that the United states wanted Gorbachev to succeed. A the administration chooses not to speculate on his chances White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said at the time. Vice president Dan Quayle also seemed at times to be at Odds with Bush a embrace of the soviet Leader. In december 1989, he warned that relations should not be based on one Man and added a Gorbachev will not sometime Down the Road. Be the Leader of the soviet  president Nixon weighed in with a warning two months ago in the Washington Post. . Policies cannot be built on the fortunes of one Man a he wrote a even As outstanding a Man As  the administration has Many staunch defenders of course. A your policies have been Wise and prudent and rightly focused on Gorbachev former . Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick said after mondays coup. A Gorbachev was a Good example of the importance of individuals in history. He led the  but a number of conservative Republican senators this week asserted they had longstanding concerns about Bush a approach a among them do Amato Trent Lott of Mississippi Malcolm Wallop of Wyoming and Bob Dole of Kansas. A i believe the crisis underscores a couple of Points in be been making for a Long time a said Dole the Senate gop Leader. A the first is we can to afford to put All of our eggs in Gorbachev a Basket and the second is we be got to increase our contacts with both the soviet Central government and the republics a we need to do More in the  some persistent critics of the administration now Are saying that its policy did Gorbachev More harm than Good that Bush a almost unconditional backing created Little pressure for the soviet Leader to take decisive actions or ally himself with russian president Boris n. Yeltsin and other reformers. A a Bush a Strong personal championing of Gorbachev encouraged him to isolate himself a said Burton Pines senior vice president of the conservative heritage foundation a the never joined the ranks of the democratic reformers. He never adopted economic reforms. He could ignore them because he believed he had support from George Bush and other Western  Paul Weyrich president of the conservative free Congress foundation said Bush ironically May have weakened Gorbachev a hand by refusing to provide Aid moral support and trading privileges to restive soviet republics. If he had a Gorbachev could have said to the hardliners a look Well have to make some concessions because in be got the United states breathing Down my Throat Quot said Weyrich who returned from a soviet trip 10 Days ago. He and others cited Bosh a recent speech in Kiev in which he urged the republics to reject a the hopeless course of isolation a As exactly the wrong move. Pines was in Moscow at the time. A i know How horrified the leaders of the democratic Reform movements were Quot he said. A the hard liners in Moscow could Sec this Only As an endorsement of what they were  Gaffney director of the Center for Security policy called the Kiev speech a a signal like the one we sent to hard liners in Nina and Iraq and  and what was the message a we still remain enamoured of dealing with the Center and of the control or so called stability that offers  c the associated press