European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - September 27, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Friday september 27, 1991 the stars and stripes a Page 13commentary George will Fig ures add up to dilemma for democrats refuting the arithmetic of fatalism is the Challenge to any Democrat who would be president. It is a daunting task but it can be done. The arithmetic turns on two numbers 270 and $500 billion. The former is the number of electoral votes needed to win. The latter is the size the annual deficit honestly calculated is approaching. The deficit seems to make winning a Barren exercise. By january 1993, two Republican presidents in a dozen years will have presided Over the quadrupling of the National debt that existed when Reagan was inaugurated. Republicans reckless governance and skillful politics have created today s dilemma for democrats. For a Democrat getting to 270 is difficult partly because the deficit generates Domestic policy paralysis. This paralysis makes foreign policy George Bush a claim to competence the Only Arena of presidential action. Democrats fatalism about the presidency is the result of familiar facts about electoral votes. In the 10 elections since 1952, republicans have won seven and lost two 1960, 1976 narrowly. Since 1952, 27 states with 274 votes have voted Republican eight or More times. In the six elections since 1968, republicans have won five. Thirty four states with 336 votes have voted Republican five of the six times. Twenty one states with 191 votes have voted Republican All six times. Since 1952, republicans have won 69 percent of the electoral votes since 1968, 79 percent in the 1980s, 89 percent. In their last four victories republicans have won 91 percent better than Franklin d. Roosevelt a four election average of 88.3. As population moves South and West the Republican advantage grows. If the 1992 allocation of electoral votes had been in place in 1988, Bush s margin would have widened by 10 votes. In 10 of the 11 former Confederate states Democrat Michael Dukakis failed to reach 44 percent of the popular vote. Those states which had 138 electoral votes in 1988, now have 147. In those states the democrats record in their last five defeats is 2 wins 53 losses. In the 24 contiguous states West of the Mississippi the democrats record in the last five elections is 12 wins 108 losses. One question about 1992 is which Democrat can reclaim support recently lost from Southern Whites and Northern ethnics the South the poorest Region is susceptible to economic liberalism right evidently not. Dukakis like George Mcgovern and Walter Mondale before him was shut out there and even ran behind his National average. One of every 16 Urban americans has been robbed or mugged so almost every urbanite at least knows people who Are victims of crime and All urbanite Are afraid. A candidate who is a social Liberal a praising court decisions limiting police Powers and expanding defendants rights and opposing capital punishment a is Apt to be mugged by these voters. From 1952 through 1984, an average of 20 percent of voters calling themselves democrats voted for Republican presidential candidates. In 1972, Nixon got 33 percent of those votes. Bush got Only 10 percent but carried 40 states. To win a Democrat must attract lots of republicans. Tom Harkin Mario Cuomo be serious. In 1988, a Wise Democrat said the nominee should be a a combination of Horace Greeley and Ulysses Grant someone who can both go West and capture the  democrats unwisely nominated a northeastern Liberal. Fortunately for democrats the task of breaking the republicans Quot electoral College lock Points toward a strategy for governance. If democrats want to go on another ideological Bender Harkin or Cuomo will do. But if democrats want four years of Power rather than four months of feckless fun then the candidate should be someone from a Long Way West of Washington someone who understands that for millions of americans the two great facts about government today Are its failures at two primary functions a the provision of Domestic Tranquility and economic Opportunity. He should be someone who knows that crime is not a code word for racism but a word for barbarism and misery. He should be someone with a strategy for running to fiscal Daylight by generating growth for the Economy generally rather than entitlements for factions. Someone who knows it is a scandal when not one of 4,000-plus Domestic programs is killed by a bipartisan budget Deal that of last october. Someone who will run right at the incumbent on the grounds that it is disgusting for americans to be dying from stray bullets and for schools and Bridges and trauma care and much else to be failing while the president is preoccupied with Fine tuning the demography of Judea and Samaria. Could such a candidate win Why not the Berlin Wall is a million souvenirs the communist party is banished in Russia the Minnesota twins have gone from last to first in a single season and the Atlanta braves May yet do so. But Bush losing is unimaginable can to democrats comprehend How quickly a party can go see the gop 1964-68 from hiking immolated to being inaugurated c the Washington Post David proper heartland voters ready to Bounce lawmakers there a nothing like the Midwest to restore a sense of reality. Alter a week of reporting in and around Akron Cleveland Indianapolis and Detroit the fogs of Washington have been lifted from my brain. The picture that a revealed is not a Happy one for politicians in general a and democrats in particular. Casual conversations radio Call in shows and More structured interviews All confirmed that the news from Washington which had registered most deeply with my fellow midwesterner last week had nothing to do with the confirmation hearings of judge Clarence Thomas or prospective Cia director Robert Gates. Still less did it concern israeli loan guarantees or the future of american policy toward Yugoslavia or the soviet Union. The news that hit Home was the Story that members of the House of representatives regularly Bounce bad checks they have written on the House Bank and Are allowed to make them Good without penalty. The report raised the roof by saying More than 4,000 such rubber checks a almost 10 per member of the House a had been floated in the most recent six month accounting period. It fed the barely repressed anger at recent pay raises that House and Senate members had voted for themselves. Egged on by several of the talk show hosts callers had no trouble suggesting what they thought should be done to people who cannot live on salaries that seem luxurious to most working families. The bad Check Story resonated because almost everyone knows that Banks charge a penalty when the Check comes Back stamped a insufficient  that House members a who Are paid $125,000 a year a indulged in penalty free Check bouncing by their own Bank serves As the perfect Symbol of a system most voters think is run by insiders for their own personal convenience and Benefit. Fairly or not most of this blame attaches to Congress a and to the democrats who have dominated Congress for the last two generations. The worst mistake the democrats could make would be to ignore this rising tide of Public anger. They May feel Safe behind the barricades of incumbency with All the advantages that gives them in fund raising staff and other Perks of office. But the anti incumbent mood that surfaced in 1990 and sliced the re election percentages of 110 House members to the lowest Levels of their careers has not spent its Force. It it does not topple More incumbents next year it will certainly fuel the growing movement to limit terms which eventually will Cut Short their tenure in office. All this poses a particular danger to the democrats. In the pattern of divided government that has prevailed since 1968. They Are identified with Congress while the republicans derive their reputation from the presidents voters have i acted since then. In the Midwest the Republican party reflects the considerable strengths of George Bush. No one symbolizes or defines the democrats in the same Way. If democrats thought that the personal integrity and ability of House speaker Thomas s. Foley d-wash., or Senate majority Leader George j. Mitchell a Maine would rub off on Congress they were wrong. Their Public presence is zilch. And Congress name is mud. That is one important reason Why the democrats literally cannot afford to disregard the 1992 presidential race. Weak As their chances of defeating Bush appear to be the presidential contest offers them the Only Hope in the next year of shifting the Public s perception of the party away from the ruinous reputation of the Washington congressional insiders. It May not seem difficult for the democrats to capture the Banner of change from a president who is peculiarly complacent about Domestic challenges. But so Long As the democrats Are identified with the congressional insiders the Public sees As corrupted by too Many years of entrenched Power they will not be plausible agents of change. To was Mugion Host write s group