European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 14, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Tuesday january 14, 1992 the stars and stripes a Page 13 commentary Paul Beaver peace efforts could make 92 a dramatic year 1991 certainly had its exciting moments. A failed coup in the soviet Union the downfall of Mikhail s. Gorbachev civil War in Yugoslavia and a  Victory Over Iraq that liberated Kuwait. Will 1992 be As dramatic As the new year Bells chimed in red Square the red White and Blue russian Tricolour Flag fluttered Over Peter the great a Arsenal building in the Kremlin. Inside Boris n. Yeltsin russians first elected Leader was the Man with his Finger on the nuclear Button. Interim military commander Yevgeniy i. Shaposhnikov controls the no. 2 Button a for the moment. Within the new Commonwealth of Independent states with its legacy of 32,800 warheads the vast military machine is restless. Food and fuel Are scarce. One senior officer second in command of a 16,000-Strong tank division has carved a Home for his family in a condemned building in Ukraine that was a psychiatric Hospital Ward. About 1 million former soviet soldiers and airmen fresh from the relative luxury of former Warsaw pact Host nations now live in tents. Bush administration fears that the old Union would disintegrate into Complete anarchy have eased. But the risk is growing of a soviet nuclear scientist brain Drain and the Sale of nuclear technology. According to the Moscow based Institute of geography More than 75 potential Border disputes simmer in the former soviet Union Many of them on russians Borders. The risk of a new coup remains very real. In the Middle East if the Washington brokered peace conference fails will there be renewed conflict the prospects for iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein to stay in Power Are solid in the Short term. But iraqis infrastructure is almost totally destroyed. The question is How Long will the people stand for such poverty Libya under col. Moa mar Qadhafi has current Border disputes with Algeria Chad niger and Tunisia. Qadhafi still aspires to Muslim and North african regional superpower leadership status a even though he has not repeated any armed confrontation with the United states. Algerians recent election of the first democratic Muslim Nind mentalist government has set off warning Bells in Egypt Morocco and saudi Arabia a pro Western nations troubled by their own growing Muslim fundamentalist movements. In Egypt a october presidential elections fundamentalists Are expected to make new moves toward Power. Iran will continue its Drift toward a pro Western stance. But Iran which is building up its armed forces will retain its goals for regional dominance by the year 2000. Among the worlds few communist nations Cuba is destined to change. It will remain almost completely disowned by its former soviet allies. Fidel Castro a regime has a legacy of More than 40,000 soldiers who fought in africans civil wars. The cuban government is worried about these Battle trained troops with nothing to do. Albania is in a bad Way. Internal pressures to Reform its chinese style communist government will go on. This May Lead to More migration attempts by members of an uneasy population witnessing the moves toward Western style democracy elsewhere. Peru a shining path a maoist insurgency group continues to terrorize that country procuring arms and equipment from China and any other nations willing to sell. It is not Likely that China will curb its weapons sales to the third world. The country gets far too much income from these deals. In the last five years China sold Between $7 and $8 billion in arms a significant part of their Export Economy. Does the . Withdrawal from bases in the Philippines signal the beginning of the end of the . Security role in Asia will it alter the Security agreement with Japan not really because both Japan and the United states need the Alliance. It is in Japan a interests to pay a portion of maintaining . Troops in Okinawa and on the Mainland. And it is still economical for the United states to keep troops in Japan. Reunification of North Ana South Korea will happen eventually but not Likely in 1992. What a More neither Seoul nor Pyongyang wants the expense of nuclear weapons. This is one reason the two sides which have broken Many of their agreements since 1953, May finally stick to a new plan allowing inspections and Banning nuclear weapons from the Peninsula. As the new year dawns warring yugoslavian have accepted yet another . Peace plan. But there is Little sign of a lasting cease fire and it seems no respite from the civil War. Slovenia seems assured of a prosperous 1992. But Croatia remains locked in a bitter struggle with communist dominated Serbia with major elements of the armed forces apparently out of control. European stability is threatened by the global trend toward nationalism and civil War. The european Community guidelines for recognition of separate yugoslavian republics could in fact open the Way to new secession a for instance of the czech and slovak populations in Czechoslovakia. France Spain and Italy must find a Way to Deal with mass migration from the North african nations. On the african continent migration is a major concern. Refugees flee across lazily defined Borders running from civil wars that continue to plague the Region. More than 1 million refugees have already been displaced by the ethiopian civil War alone. Kenya is concerned about new poaching by armed groups fresh from ethiopians civil War moving in through Ethiopia and Somalia. In latin America the peace process is moving. The United nations will try to keep the lid on fragile accords in Al Salvador and Nicaragua. But further South drug Barons continue to dominate Colombia. The risks of narc terrorism being exported have already led to . Military involvement. How close the world can get to lasting peace May be one of the most crucial issues of 1992. C jan0 s defence weekly Helen Thomas have to curtail Campaign schedule Bush May president Bush who has had Superman stamina on the Campaign Trail in the past May be told to slow Down no matter what the stakes. The president had served fair warning that he expected his re election Campaign to be a a dog eat dog contest and that be would do anything he had to do to win. But in View of his recent bout with the flu in Tokyo during his 12-Day asian swing his doctors May urge him to curtail his travel schedule that Nas been monumental in the past three years. As president he has travelled to nearly 30 countries and touched base in nearly All 50 states always admittedly a bit hyper always on the go the 67-year-old president had a very ambitious Campaign schedule carved out not Only to win the primaries where conservative commentator Pat Buchanan is challenging him for the Nomi nation but after that to go on to an even More rigorous election Campaign against the democratic nominee. The president has said that Only health could keep him from seeking a second term. At the same time he has hastened to Tell interviewers that he feels Fine and knows of no medical problems that would keep him from running again. He was diagnosed As having Graves disease a hyper thyroid condition last Spring when he suffered an irregular heartbeat while jogging at Camp David my. Since then he was Given Medicine to destroy his thyroid and to replace it with hormones. Last september his doctors gave him a clean Bill of health and took Nim off All medication except for baby aspirins to prevent blood clots. Bush a health so far has not been an Issue with his opponents. With his tendency to push himself it will take some doing to keep Bush off the Road despite his ready Access to television and the wide audiences that it reaches. He likes to get out amongst them and in recent weeks has attempted a More Folksy populist style to assure potential voters that he knows that they Are hurting in the current sluggish Economy. Bush has indicated that he does not see a a pleasant Days ahead when the National climate will be As he put it a politics politics  As a consequence he has held off As Long As he could a formal announcement that he is running for re election a which has been a foregone conclusion a in order to keep a strictly presidential profile As Long As possible. But he cannot hold Back the Dawn much longer and he is expected to say within Days that he is a candidate. Unless he radically changes his style Bush will tax himself to the Hilt during the Campaign. Competitive As he is he always plays to win and has made no promises to take the High Road. Furthermore he has never repudiated the tactics in the 1988 election Campaign that put him in the White House even though one of his key operatives Lee Atwater before he died was remorseful and apologetic Over some of the strategy. So Bush a last Hurrah May be rough and Tumble with his opponents trying to put him on the defensive As soon As he jumps into the fray. As for the voters a show me attitude is probably in the picture. C United press International