European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - February 20, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Thursday february 20, 1992 the stars and stripes Page 13commentary . Apple or. It was bad Day for Bush and the status quo the republicans of new Hampshire made their views Clear enough on tuesday. Nearly half of them Felt dissatisfied enough with George Bush a performance especially his handling of the Economy to vote for a television commentator Patrick j. Buchanan in preference to the incumbent president. The question is will republicans elsewhere feel and do the same and will Bush a evident weakness together with the rather indecisive outcome of the democratic primary propel other democrats into the contest it was a bad Day for the status quo. Not Only did Bush suffer from voters Wrath the Winner among the democrats former sen. Paul e. Tsongas was a Man who has been out of office for eight years and ran against politics As usual. Buchanan had a lot of advantages in new Hampshire that will not be available to him in subsequent contests. New Hampshire has been hit harder than almost any other state by the recession. Television advertising is cheap an advantage to a challenger and Buchanan had the exuberant backing of the states dominant newspaper the Union Leader in Manchester. But the political Trade winds could carry the dissatisfaction registered to other states. Clearly Buchanan was the recipient of Many protest votes. According to a Survey of voters leaving polling places about half of the challengers supporters said they had backed him mainly to a Send a  even after Buchanan a near Triumph on tuesday politicians and political analysts see him less As a threat to Bush a renomination which most of them take for granted and More As a threat to Bush a eventual reelection. The longer he stays in the race they say the More he distracts the president from the main business at hand fighting the democrats. But then Buchanan has been underestimated before notably by the White House political operatives. The candidates sister Angela who Heads his Campaign says she is confident that $2 million can be raised in a matter of Days to finance the next phase of his Effort. Bush a backers sought to dismiss the new Hampshire results As an aberration. A what this was not is a tidal wave of support for Pat Buchanan As the next president of the United states a said Mitchell e. Daniels jr., who was a White House political director during the Reagan administration. But Kevin Phillips a conservative analyst described Buchanan a Challenge to Bush As the most serious to an elected Republican president since 1912, when Theodore Roosevelt broke with William Howard Taft. Deciding what approach to take next will be a big test for Bush a Campaign organization led by Robert m. Teeter and Richard n. Bond. Its performance Here looked like that of a team forced into a big game in the midst of Spring training a reflexes slow too Many strikeouts in the clutch. Their inept performance is an embarrassment that they will have to live with but they Jack w. Germond still have plenty of time to recover for the playoffs. Bush a bloody nose May encourage new democratic candidacies in that it confirms his vulnerability. Even among new Hampshire Republican voters Only 48 percent approved of his performance As president with 49 percent disapproving. But the democratic results with Tsongas winning and gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas running a respectable second Send no Clear message. While Clinton did less Well than he had hoped before his Campaign was swamped for a time by charges of marital infidelity and draft evasion which he denied he did Well enough to head toward the South his natural base with his head High. He did equally Well among men and women and Only 5 percent of the democratic voters said that Clinton a character influenced the Way they voted Accord ing to the Survey of voters. The arkansans now faces a Stern test. He must demonstrate in the next month in the culturally and politically conservative South that the charges Don t Cut there either. If he can restive National democratic leaders Many of whom continue to View Clinton As a damaged political property May change their minds. It will take a few weeks to answer the question of whether Tsongas political magic can be exported. During that time in the primaries in South Dakota and elsewhere the second tier of democratic candidates a former gov. Edmund g. Brown of California and Sens. Tom Harkin of Iowa and Bob Kerrey of Nebraska a will vie to see which of them survives. Their Blanket finish meant that new Hampshire a traditional winnowing function was frustrated. Sen. Lloyd Bentsen of Texas rep. Richard a. Gephardt of Missouri or sen. A1 Gore of Tennessee May decide in the next few Days to make a late entry. Frank Watkins an aide to Jesse Jackson the civil rights Leader called reporters on tuesday to suggest that his Man was a under pressure to  it is even possible that gov. Mario m. Cuomo of new York might jump in though the write in Campaign in his behalf did not really catch fire. With so Many questions still open however a late entrant might Well be seen As a spoiler or worse and it seems More Likely that everyone will wait to see whether any of the Active contenders demonstrates staying Power. C the now York times democrats May have to recruit third Man in the end the new Hampshire democratic primary Here has raised More questions than it has answered. The one that matters is this one where do the democrats find the candidate who can take advantage of the vulnerability president Bush demonstrated so clearly no one in the democratic party except Paul Tsongas and his most devoted admirers would argue that the returns produced a satisfying answer. So the second question is do the democrats now try to recruit an alternative a third Many such As House majority Leader Richard Gephardt the Triumph of Tsongas was by any rational measure a remarkable achievement for a one term senator from Massachusetts no one would Ever accuse of being an exciting campaigner. But Tsongas now must demonstrate he can win in other parts of the country where he does no to have As much time to grow on the democratic voters with his Earnest insistence on telling voters the bad news. Arkansas gov. Bill Clinton a second place finish coming three weeks after he held a Clear Lead in the opinion polls inevitably will be attributed to a voter reaction against the controversies about his personal life and draft history. For Clinton the critical question now is whether he can demonstrate that he can overcome those reservations in the electorate elsewhere. For Many democratic professionals the most disappointing result of the returns was their failure to produce another candidate showing the obvious Promise to become a serious contender Down the line. The consensus favorite was sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska who seemed less flawed As a general election candidate than the others but he failed to set himself clearly apart from sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa and former gov. Jerry Brown of California. The indecisive Quality of the democratic returns is most evident in the fact the primary has not left anyone dead on the political Battlefield. On the contrary even Kerrey and Harkin have received enough political nourishment to go on to the next rounds in the Maine caucuses sunday the South Dakota primary next tuesday and a round of tests in seven states March 3. In trying to establish their Bona fides As serious contenders the survivors Are Likely to choose their battlegrounds carefully. For Clinton for example the first priority will be the Georgia primary which offers him an Opportunity to disprove the suspicion in the political Community that Nis draft history will be a heavy Burden with conservative Southern democratic voters who have been deserting the party for Ronald Reagan and George Bush in the last three elections. The first target for Tsongas will be the Maine party caucuses sunday where he now will be established As the Clear favorite. But Tsongas also intends to make several stops in South Dakota in the next week before concentrating on Maryland in the March 3 round. For Kerrey and Harkin the South Dakota vote next week will be significant because both come from nearby farm Belt states and have had Campaign operations running for several weeks. It one of them takes a serious fall there he will find it difficult to make a Case As even a Strong regional favorite much less a National candidate. The problem for Tsongas is not just the Label of a regional candidate a one that really Isnit valid a but the kind of frenetic schedule he now faces. Tsong ask strength As a candidate has been his ability to Wear Well with the electorate and drive Home the substance of his message week after week until he won increasing acceptance. If he is Able to do that elsewhere Tsongas could be the final answer to that Basic democratic question. But few in the political world would make that bet today. C the Baltimore Sun