European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - March 12, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Thursday March 12, 1992 the stars and stripes a Page 13 columns . Apple  took South but can he take Bush Southern democratic leaders achieved tuesday what they sought in vain to do four years ago they gave a mighty heave Forward to the presidential bid of a moderate candidate from their own Region. Whether the heave will prove decisive and gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas wins the nomination in new York this summer remains to be seen of course. But his sweep of the Southern states on super tuesday 1992 established him As his party a undisputed front runner with a big Lead in convention delegates and gave him a shot at clinching things this month. It was a grim Day for former sen. Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts. Having failed even to come close in Florida the Only Southern state where he had a fighting Chance he must now win next week in either Illinois or Michigan with their big Blue Collar voting blocs both ethnic and Black to reinvigorate his Campaign. Neither tuesday nor in earlier primaries have such voters been very much attracted to him and one of his advisers Ted Van Dyk said tuesday night that Tsongas was facing a a Stalingrad in the Midwest in whose snows his candidacy could easily perish. The democrats system of proportional representation ensured the former senator even in defeat that he would gain some delegates from All the major super tuesday states. Even if he loses both Michigan and Illinois he will probably get delegates there too and Clinton would not be Able to put a mathematical lock on the nomination until Many More states had voted. But without at least one Victory in the big great lakes states next week Tsongas would run Short of Money quickly and Clinton might look unstoppable. Tsongas next Chance to win a dramatic image reversing Victory would not come for three weeks until the new York primary april 7. The question that lurked in Many minds even As Clinton won six primaries in the South including the hard fought contest in Florida was whether the democrats were playing into the republicans hands. The Arkansas governor in the View of Many political pros would be highly vulnerable to assault by the republicans this fall because of questions about his extramarital relations his draft status during Vietnam and his financial dealings while governor. A the looks like Jack Dempsey at the moment a said a senator from a Border state a but the republicans Haven to started punching  Richard Murray a professor of political science at the University of Houston said that a fear about jobs Trumps concerns about character in really hard  but with Clinton As its nominee and the Economy ticking Over a bit better he continued the democratic party might find itself this fall a having problems not with its message but with its  president Bush also won everywhere in Dixie but once again he failed to decisively dispatch his main challenger Patrick Buchanan. In the two electoral powerhouses of the Region Texas and Florida the president once again lost Between 30 and 3.5 percent As he has around the country. Only in Tennessee was Bush Able to minimize the protest vote. As a result he is closer to the nomination in a numerical sense but no closer to party Mastery. Voters who backed Buchanan in Texas and Florida were mostly people who think the Economy has deteriorated who Are angry about Bush a breaking his pledge not to increase taxes and who wanted a to shake things  but nowhere were there enough of them to put Buchanan close to Victory and Republican congressional leaders began urging him tuesday night to fold his Campaign. Super tuesday was created As an antidote to the tendency of Early voting states to make inevitable the nomination of liberals such As sen. George s. Mcgovern in 1972 and former vice president Walter f. Mondale in 1984. Convinced that such nominees were unelectable southerners grouped their primaries Early in the political year As a Means of getting leverage. But in 1988 the Southern Hope sen. Albert Gore of Tennessee was buried in the South by the Rev. Jesse Jackson and gov. Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts both liberals. Clinton Learned something from Gores experience. Although he never seemed Likely to beat sen. Tom Harkin in Iowa and knew he faced a fight from Tsongas in new Hampshire he plunged into a number of Early tests unlike Gore who Hung Back until super tuesday allowing his rivals to become far better known. Tsongas lacked a skill that proved valuable to Dukakis his ability to Appeal in Spanish to hispanic voters. Dukakis scored heavily among such voters four years ago but a poll of Texas voters leaving the Booths by voter research and surveys a cooperative venture by four television networks showed Tsongas gained the support of Only about 20 percent of the hispanic electorate. Surprisingly the same Survey showed Tsongas and Clinton splitting the jewish votes in Florida one of the main building blocks of the Dukakis Victory there in 1988. Clinton had sought to convince jewish retirees of whom tens of thousands Are clustered in South Florida that the former senator was lukewarm in his support of Israel and of social Security. In some ways Florida was a demographically Ideal state for Tsongas certainly far More suited to him than Illinois or Michigan with their Urban wards filled with polish ukrainian and italian americans according to the exit poll More than 60 percent of the participants in the democratic primary in Florida had some College education. Those were the kinds of voters among whom the former senator had done Best in previous elections. He easily carried those with undergraduate and graduate degrees but Clinton trounced him among the Large group w Ith Only some College. In the end Clinton appeared to have won the bitter debate Over whose economic plan would do More for the country. In both Texas and Florida the governor got a majority of the votes of those who said they thought the Economy was in poor shape. C Thyl now York Timna Jules Witcover Buchanan remains Thorn in president s Side super tuesday in the Republican presidential race proved to be not much different from the previous three tuesdays of the 1992 election year a except in reinforcing that president Bush while running safely ahead for renomination has a tenacious bulldog biting his ankle with no indication that he intends to let go once again the president dominated the Republican primaries and caucuses a this time there were eight of them in the single biggest Day of voting of the season including Delegate Rich Texas and Florida. But also once again challenger Patrick Buchanan provided a disturbing reminder to Bush that a Good portion of voters casting Republican ballots either oppose him or want to Send him a message to shape up at least on the Domestic front. Robert Teeter the Bush Quayle Campaign manager was predicting on the night of the new Hampshire primary three weeks ago that Bush would have the nomination wrapped up by the night of super tuesday. Practically speaking Teeter was right. The president has now swept through 26 state contests All but shutting Buchanan out of convention delegates As a result of the Republican party a Winner take All allocation. Buchanan has been Able to win a handful by carrying a few congressional districts but is no threat to Bush a renomination. He is however becoming an increasing threat to the presidents re election by demonstrating week after week Bush a vulnerability and by spelling out the ingredients of the Public discontent with in. Not Only has Buchanan a tenacity kept the president on the defensive and displayed his campaigns uncertainty of direction it also has provided the democrats with ammunition and a game plan to use against the president in the fall. Buchanan has been plainly frustrated about his inability to score a breakthrough shattering his Early dream of driving Bush from the race As Democrat Eugene Mccarthy dispatched president Johnson in 1968. But he has replaced that dream with another a so weakening Bush that he will lose his grip on the Republican party not during the Campaign but afterwards so that a a True conservatives of Buchanan a variety can recapture the Reagan revolution he believes Bush usurped. As Buchanan presses on a he was in Michigan on tuesday night getting a jump on next tuesdays primary there a he is talking increasingly not about winning the nomination but about igniting a a a movement to take Back that revolution. He has been reminding audiences that he was a foot Soldier in the Barry Goldwater political army As Early As i960 when the Arizona senator set in motion the grassroots conservative movement that finally produced president elect Reagan in 1980. As the Hope of a Buchanan nomination fades another is shaping of this television commentator turned political candidate addressing the Republican National convention in Houston in August and arousing the conservative faithful from their passivity. Buchanan Well remembers that his first political hero Goldwater did just that at the 1960 convention when bowing to the nomination of Richard m. Nixon he delivered a fiery Call of a Wake up conservatives that started the drive that won him the nomination in 1964. K Tho a t Noro soft