European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - May 9, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Saturday May 9, 1992 the stars and stripes a Page 13 commentary Tom Raum ii May polls could change a lot by november with the Republican and democratic nominations now essentially locked up exit polls and surveys Are becoming the real barometer of this skittish political season. They re providing far More insight into the mood of the electorate than actual vote counts. And for better or worse those numbers Are also providing data on Texas billionaire Ross Perot giving the undeclared but expected Independent candidate the luxury of getting numbers from states where he Isnit even on the ballot. So far Perot a who once suggested that exit polls be banned a has gotten a lot of free political mileage and publicity from these surveys without having to do much campaigning or spending. Tuesdays primaries reinforced the dominance held by president Bush and Bill Clinton Over the respective Republican and democratic nominations. Bush already had a mathematical lock on the gop nomination going into the balloting in Indiana North Carolina and the District of Columbia. Clinton scored lopsided victories Over his Only remaining rival Jerry Brown. There is no longer any doubt that democrats will select Clinton at their convention in new York in july and republicans will choose Bush in Houston in August. Recent polls seem to be providing More telling information As the 1992 primary season winds Down into irrelevance. For instance exit polls on tuesday revealed a that roughly a Quarter of the voters in both parties in Indiana and North Carolina would vote for Perot in a three Way race. A that Clinton was making Progress in eliminating concerns about his character. Roughly two thirds of the democratic voters in those two states said he has the honesty and integrity to serve Way up from earlier primaries. A that even so 44 percent of the democratic voters in North Carolina and 43 percent in Indiana think Clinton does no to understand the needs and problems of average americans. Among republicans 42 percent in North Carolina and 36 percent in Indiana said the same of Bush. Analysts say the surveys of voters leaving their polling places open a window on the soul of the electorate. But some wonder if they re not also letting in too much wind. A in some respects the exit poll results have become As big news As the actual results of real people voting a said democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin. A the truth is they be become extraordinarily and in some cases excessively  candidates of All stripes hate or love polls depending on their own Rise or fall. President Bush is the most habitual offender. He Al ways claims he does no to pay attention to polls when he a Down. And he nearly always brags about them when he a up. Now Perot seems to be following that Lead. Although he has said he never pays attention to polls Perot has several times pointed proudly to a Texas poll showing him to be leading both Bush and Clinton in his Home state. Earlier this week the first poll came out showing Perot to be in a virtual dead heat nationwide with Bush and Clinton in a three Way race. The times Mirror poll showed Bush at 33 percent and Clinton and Perot both at 30 percent with a 3 percentage Point margin of error. A a it a a Long Long time from May to november a Perot said in reacting to the poll. But it was Perot himself who brought up the subject tuesday at a meeting of newspaper publishers in new York. Clinton even sought to put a favourable spin on the times Mirror numbers. A i was frankly very pleased with the poll. After what this Campaign has been through the last few months i could be 20 Points behind by now a he said. The Bush Camp which just a week ago was rejoicing that the president appeared to be pulling ahead of Clinton in polls was t saying much about this one. A a it a too much a snapshot of the times which is pretty irrelevant a said Torie Clarke Bush a Campaign spokeswoman. Reminded that Bush has brought up polls himself when it served his interests Clarke said a a lot of politicians fall into  the times Mirror poll in fact was taken during and immediately after the los Angeles riots a and appears to reflect an erosion of support for Bush because of them. Actually Perot a support so far in exit polls has been lower than the 30 percent in the times Mirror poll a hanging in the mid-20s. That a respectable for an Independent candidate. But Independent John Anderson was polling in the same neighbourhood in May 1980 before plunging winding up with less than 7 percent of the vote. After All it is a Long time from May until november. C the associated press Helen Thomasit was t great society s programs that failed White House press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater on whose head a political hat lies heavy is on shaky ground in denouncing the great society programs at a time when Many View them As salvation for the disadvantaged. Fitzwater obeying marching orders stepped to the podium a few Days after the devastating rioting in los Angeles to deliver the manifesto that president Bush a solution to the Urban problems would adhere to his conservative philosophy. Bush would not be buying into federally sponsored programs that the president Calls a failed and create dependency among the recipients of welfare checks instead of jobs Fitzwater stressed. But the press spokesman was hard pressed when asked to itemize the programs of a can do president Lyndon Johnson that had burdened rather than helped the people for whom they were intended. He could not immediately respond and probably did not want to cite programs that have had widespread acceptance since they were passed around 196o. Among them medicare the civil rights and voting rights act creation of the department of housing and Urban development vocational rehabilitation Federal Aid to education the Highway improvement act and Many More that were aimed at alleviating human needs. There is a Glass Case on a Wall of the White House press Center that includes 50 pens used to sign the a historic and fabulous great society Bills in the first session of the 89th Congress. No president since then has shown As much concern or compassion for the deprived on the Domestic scene or the determination to improve the Quality of life for millions. A a in a the president of All the people a Johnson used to say. He put aside some of his Southern traditions when he moved into the White House and when the race riots broke out in 1967 and 1968, he went to the Capitol to deliver the simple message a we shall  since then it has been popular for the conservative political opposition to dismiss the programs As discredited but when asked to name those they would eliminate they sing a different Tunc. Eliminate medicare food Stamps that will be the Day. Medicaid voting rights head Start not if a lawmaker wants to get elected again. President Reagan epitomized the drive to end the great society and he proceeded to Chip away at the landmark Domestic Laws put on the books in the Johnson Era. He chalked it All up to a getting the government off our  Reagan who received Many favors from his wealthy backers throughout his political career and his top aides described poverty As  the Reagan administration called Ketchup a vegetable on school lunch menus. Former attorney general Edwin Meese a close Reagan adviser suggested that people go to soup lines so they wont have to pay Tor their lunch. A we believe that Many of the Root problems that have resulted in inner City difficulties were started in the �?T60s and �?T70s and they have failed a said Fitzwater. A we believe that we do need additional efforts that Are made in the area of people getting people Independence and the ability to get jobs and to earn their Way out of whatever situation they re in to give them Hope to give them Homes to give them a stake in the Community a he added. A we believe that there needs to be a Basic redirection of the inner City programs that focus on giving people Pride in what their abilities Are and to earn a living and to have a stake in the Community a Fitzwater said. The los Angeles racial strife is bound to become a defining moment for the candidates As they hasten to adjust their themes to take in the new reality. 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