European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 16, 1993, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Pago 14 the stars and stripes Money matters tuesday november 16,1993 a i i a 11today�?Ts rates following arc fixed fates at which Community Hanking and credit Union facilities Wilt sell foreign currencies to . Personnel for personal use German Mark 64 British Pound. 1.53 dutch Guilder 1.04 greek drachma a a a a a a a a a 236.7673 onto the  above apply within the Host country. Figure Ere expressed in totter to the British Pound other currencies to the Dollar. Following arc Interbank rates that fluctuate and should he regarded As the approximate value of the . Dollar to foreign currencies italian lira 1,653.00 turkish lira 13,330.00 Spanish peseta 130.95 portuguese eee Udo 172.50 austrian Echo Llang 11.8525 saudi rival 3.75 bahraini Dinar a a a off a a a a a a a a a a a a a 0.37670 kuwaiti Dinar 0.29790 norwegian Krona a a a a a a oooo 7.3320 danish Krone a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a to 0.7290 j British Pound $1.4910 German Mark Swiss Irine a  1.4915 French franc  aaa 5.8005 dutch Guilder  8892 belgian franc a a a a a a a a oooo oooo 36.06 Canadian Dollar a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a 1.3230 note figures Are expressed in dollars to the British Pound other currencies to the Dollar Gold quota $373 80enounce. Silver quote $4.50 an ounce fed May be setting stage for rate hike experts say Union workers ending strike Washington a the recent improvement in economic growth is raising speculation the Federal Reserve May be getting ready to nudge Short term interest rates higher to prevent inflation from worsening. Almost no one expects monetary policy Rrt Akers meeting och ind closed doors today to increase rates this year despite an october surge in retail sales and other signs that fourth Quarter growth could be As Strong As 4 percent. But if growth is still healthy Early next year the Central Bank almost certainly will become concerned that greater inflation will result economists say. A it would seem to me the fed will move toward restraint fairly Early in the new year a said economist a Crinan Rob crts on an adjunct professor at Carnegie Mellon University in  name of the game is to forestall inflation not react to it because by that time it s too  however at least for now the feds policy making Federal open Market committee probably will opt for unchanged rates analysts predict. The labor departments consumer Price Index Rose a brisk 0.4 percent in october. But part of the increase was at tribute to a one time jump in the Federal excise tax on gasoline. And even with the october Rise inflation is running at just a 2.8 percent annual rate this year a Shade less than the the Flam of Tho Gama la to forestall inflation not Raset to it because by that time its too  Norman Robertson Carnegie Mellon University 2.9 percent Price increase for All of last year and the 3 percent Rise predicted by economists for next year. A a they re not going to do anything at the next meeting. Its hard to make the Case that 2.8 percent inflation is a problem a said economist Evelina Caincr of prime economic consulting in Chicago. The key Short term interest rate set by the Central Bank a the Federal funds rate a has remained at a three decade Low of 3 percent for an extraordinarily Long stretch since september 1992. As Long As economic growth remained weak the fed had Little reason to anticipate higher inflation. Growth in the Gross Domestic product averaged a pallid 1.4 percent during the first half of this year. But it strengthened to 2.8 percent in the third Quarter and economists predict it will be even better for the final three months of this year. If statistics for the first three months of of Caterpillar wac ree Peoria Iii. A thousands of a a Vij 11 w ii w w i on eve of next year show economic growth continuing in a moderately healthy Range the fed probably will Start raising the funds rate a the rate charged among Banks for overnight Loans a in Quarter Point increments economists said. Some such As Robertson Are looking for the move As soon As the first Quarter. Others including Paul Lally of . Wrightson amp associates expect a longer wait. A the fed is on hold for quite a while. They wont make a move unless the Leon omy really accelerates and As it does inflation docs also a he said. A i just done to think the fed will change policy until sometime toward  by then the unemployment rate now at 6.8 percent probably will be lower and the operating rate at Industrial firms now at a relatively Low 81.6 percent should be higher. Tainer is predicting the Federal funds rate will be 4 percent by the end of next year. That would be Good news for Bank and savings institution depositors but bad news for people with adjustable rate mortgages and other Loans tied to current rates. A a a a Long term interest rates Over which the fed has Little direct influence already Are moving higher in anticipation of a moderate pickup in inflation. Thirty year mortgages which hit a 25-year Low of 6.74 percent last month averaged 7.12 percent last week. Peoria Iii. Apr thousands of unionized workers at Caterpillar inc. Said sunday they were ending their three Day strike against the worlds largest maker of Earth moving equipment. Officials with United Auto workers said the nearly 9,000 workers in Peoria 2,000 members in Decatur and 600 Mem hers in Pontiac began returning to work sunday night. Barry Koicuba president of Law local 786 in York pa., said his unions 1,580 members also were returning to work. Decatur local president Larry Solomon said he believed workers at plants in Colorado and Pennsylvania were also planning to end their strike. About 13,300 Law members began walking off their jobs thursday to protest the suspension of Union representative George Boze for allegedly shoving a supervisor during an argument at the Rossville Caterpillar Plant. A we just figured its time to go Back a said Walt Koprowski bargaining chairman in Pontiac. A we made our Point. Why should our members suffer for something the company did wrong a Caterpillar vice president Wayne Zimmerman said Boze remains suspended indefinitely. He said the company would review Bozen Scase As it had promised to do before the walkout. Americans gloomy about Job Security jew York a More than two thirds of americans say Job Security is worse than when the economic recovery officially began two years ago according to a time Magazine can poll. Only 22 percent of americans say Job Security is better today than two years ago according to the Survey which was conducted by Yankelovich partners on nov. 11. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage Points. New York a Wall Street is bracing for a suspenseful week in the worlds financial markets pending action in Congress on the North american free Trade agreement. Most analysts expect the tally to be very dose in the House of representatives vote wednesday on a measure to put Naftal into effect. If the House approves it it would then go to the Senate. The most common guess on the Street is that the legislation will pass in much the same manner that last Summers Bud get plan squeaked through by the narrowest of margins. But if those expectations prove wrong Many say the markets will be in for a spell of turbulence. Beyond the economic pros and cons of the pact analysts say the situation has taken on great Domestic political significance Given the risks president Clinton has taken to try to get it passed and the opposition he has encountered from within his own party. A the danger lies in its not passing a said Alan Gottlieb president of the investment management firm of Reynders Gray a Gottlieb in new York. A i think it would have some emotional kick. A a it a largely staking a presidents reputation on the outcome. He a put a lot of chips on the table. The ramifications of that Are much More serious than just the treaty  in the View of Thomas Gallagher political economist at Lehman Brothers the president a has too much of a stake in Naftal to let it fail even if it Means making Tough deals in Congress. A it does look increasingly Likely that this will be a repeat of the budget vote in the House with the outcome unknown before the vote actually begins. If Naftal wins it will surely be by single ingers crossed in House Mickey Kantor one of president Clinton Stop salesmen for Naftal makes his pitch on Abc tvs meet the press.  predicting How the markets will respond on any sensitive Issue like this is a Dicey proposition. The More obvious and inevitable a Given Market swing appears ahead of time the greater the Chance that it wont happen the Way people think it will. Still the Naftal news promises to Ripple through the whole International trading system of stocks Bonds and currencies. A if Naftal is derailed for whatever reason a says Heiko Thieme portfolio manager of the american heritage fund a new York Mutual fund a it will at least temporarily have serious repercussions for the mexican Stock and Bond Market and will put psychological pressure on the .  beyond its immediate implications however Many analysts take a less dramatic View of the Long term importance of this weeks vote. A i think most of the effects on the markets will be fairly Short lived a says Clifford Mccarthy senior vice president at the Bull amp Bear group a Mutual fund firm. A Una fat or not Competition with Low wage economies will remain a downward influence on american  a say economists David Levy and s. Jay Levy in Qia Paqua . A people who fear an imminent reversal of inflation Overlook this situation and the dominant influence of labor costs on  adds Robert Pelosky who analyses the latin american markets for Morgan Stanley amp co a equity investors have tended to shy away from Mexico for most of the year although that trend has been changing Over the last month or so As investors seem to have decided that Mexico i attractively priced regardless of Naftal risk. A we done to think Naftal Means either the beginning or the end for Mexico As an it Onomy or As an investment opportune at the same time though the debate symbolically touches something of sustained importance to the markets a global Prosperity without the eroding fleets of inflation. David Hale chief economist at Kemper securities in Chicago said a Basic Assumption of the 2-year-old Bull Market in stocks has been rising demand for goods and services by developing Market oriented economies such As Mexico a. Part of the Assumption Hale said is that the rising demand a will be matched by a Rise in output from them so Large As to restrain