European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - December 29, 1994, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Thursday december 29, 1994 rec fictions aria my a v the stars and stripes Page 13 1995 the year ahead in preview by Scripps Howard news service Washington the final pages Are being torn from 1994 calendars and it s time to look ahead to the events of 1995. Here s what the Scripps Howard staff sees in its Crysta Ball. Congress will pass a tax Cut but it will fall far Short of the politicians overheated promises. Look for reductions in the capital gains tax and Middle class tax Cut stitched together out of bits and pieces a trim in the marriage penalty Here a Little More generous per child tax credit there an easing of Ira restrictions. But a whole slew of other widely discussed tax cuts depreciation changes tuition deductions Etc. Will not pass. Reason there s simply no Way to pay for them. Other decisions will include Congress will pass a welfare Reform Bill but it will finesse the really Tough questions no payments to teen age mothers a two year cutoff lifetime limit work requirements by leaving those decisions up to the states. Orphanages will be reduced to a Pilot program. Both the House and the Senate will pass a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution but the state swill never ratify it. Congressional term limits will come to a vote but won t get the two thirds of the House s votes necessary to pass. The supreme court will strike Down state impose term limits. A school prayer amendment to the Constitution will pass the House but die in the Senate. Despite an epic filibuster by sen. Robert Byrd d-w.va., Congress will give president Clinton a modified line item veto. A comprehensive immigration Reform Bill will be introduced and High profile House Senate hearings will be held in 1995. But nothing will be passed until 1996.the final legislation will bar government benefits to illegal aliens and reduce Legal immigration. It will hot require teachers to report children in the country illegally. "-.= ,. / " Congress also will pass health care reforms although not in a Way the Public at Large will notice. The reforms will come in legislative ribs and drabs More managed care in medicare and medicaid medical malpractice limits medical savings accounts and some insurance changes. \ . " House republicans will not Complete action on most of their contract with America in the first 100 Days As promised but they la give it a Good try. By then however the House gop juggernaut will begin running out of steam As budget and legislative realities kick in and the democrats regain their balance. Senate Leader sob dote " re Phu Gramm open hostilities Between Senate gop Leader Bob Dole and sen. Phil Grain a Texas before the August recess Are a Good bet not Only Are they presidential rivals they really Donl like each other and neither do their staffs. Open hostilities Between Senate gop Leader Bob Dole and sen. Phil Gramm a Texas before the August recess Are a Good bet. Not Only Are they presidential rivals buy they also really Don t like each other and neither do their staffs. Speculation will grow that Dole r-kan., will Bow out of the race for the gop nomination. He won t. Hell Joina Field of As Many As 10 republicans hoping to Challenge Clinton. Like All presidents in trouble at Home Clinton will discover air Force one and the Joys of foreign travel. Hell visit Post apartheid South Africa. Hell go to Europe for ceremonies marking the 50th anniversary of president Clinton jes acteon by the end of 1095, president Clinton will have a Challenge from the democratic loft prob Amy Esse Jackson. World War ii s conclusion where unlike a Day Germany will participate. Hell go to Canada for an economic Summit. Hell meet with russian president Boris Yeltsin maybe in Moscow maybe at a Neutral site. He s also Likely to make his first visit to latin America. Instead of agent of change the president will portray himself As or. Stability. Meanwhile his popularity ratings will Yoyo but mostly they la be Down. By the end of 1995, hell have a Challenge from the democratic left probably Jesse Jackson. \. Despite big talk about downsizing the number of Cabinet departments will remain intact. Although suffering some cuts the departments of education Commerce transportation Energy and housing and Urban development All will survive. "  " the Economy will chug along Ata growth rate of about 3 percent in 1995 but slump badly toward the end of the year As High interest rates slow consumer spending. Mortgage rates will go Over 10 percent in the first half of the year and that Means a spate of foreclosures As the rising rates squeeze holders of adjustable rate mortgages. None of the supreme court justices will retire in 1995. Mortgage rates will go Over 10 percent in the first half of the year highest More military bases will be ordered closed in 1995 than in any year in decades. The army has Cut 35 percent of its manpower in recent years but Only 10 percent of its property. The difference is up for grabs. Big bases will do better than smaller bases. Any Small base without an air operation is As Good As gone. A  gov. Jim Guy Tucker will be the ranking victim of the Whitewater probe in 1995. The probe itself will continue into 1996. Whitewater Independent counsel Kenneth Starr will reaffirm the findings of his predecessor Robert Fiske that White House aide Vincent Foster did indeed commit suicide. As time drags on and tensions in the refugee Camps Rise the Clinton administration will reverse itself and begin allowing into the United states the cubans being warehoused in Guantanamo Bay Ana Panama. If the republicans succeed in ordering . Troops out of Haiti look for newly reinstalled president Jean Arkansas gov. Jim Guy Tucker will be the highest ranking victim of the Whitewater probe in 1995. The probe itself will continue into 1996. Three missile carrying if the republicans succeed in ordering . Troops out of Haiti took for newly reinstalled president Jean Bertrand Aristide to be re ousted in another coup. Bertrand Aristide to be re ousted in another coup. And overseas. China s neighbors will Start to become alarmed by Beijing s naval program destroyers and a missile launching submarine being added to the Fleet each year. It s the first time that China has built a Blue water Navy North Africa will be plagued by civil strife As islamic fundamentalists seek to oust secular governments. Algeria will suffer the worst but Tunisia Egypt and maybe even Morocco will come in for their share of trouble. Fundamentalists will pose a growing threat to the monarchy of saudi Arabia. Iran is in for Domestic unrest but there it will be because of the continuing economic collapse. However the Radical clerics will remain in Power. For the first time . History the . Contribution to the organization will be Cut. In Britain John major s conservative government will fall thanks to a split in tory ranks Between the pro and anti Europe Camps. Financier James Goldsmith May try to play a Ross Perot like role opening the door to a Victory by the bumbling labor party its first since 1979. Prince Charles and his wife the Princess of Wales will get divorce " the baseball strike will drag into july or August. Owners replacement teams will get Chilly receptions from fans but slowly some big name players including Barry Bonds Frank Thomas and Jose Canseco will Cross the picket lines. Baltimore s Cal Ripken will not costing him his Chance to break Lou Gehrig s consecutive game record. The eventual settlement will involve an insanely complicated tax plan that makes no one Happy. Attendance to Revenue and ratings and general interest in the game will suffer for the remainder of the decade. The hockey strike will end in late january in time to Salvage a 45-game season and playoffs that drag past the fourth of july. Again the settlement involves a tax system that baffles everybody. By the end of 1995, electronic mail email will be Standard in most offices and Many Homes bringing an end to the age of fax. Happy new year. The baseball strike will drag into july or August