European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - May 23, 1985, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes May 1985 columns George will deterrence fhe product of readiness to wage War out on and beneath the great Plains the breadbasket of the soviet Union resides part of the the strategic air Long ago someone someone too Clever by half saddled Sac with the slogan peace is our which was like putting Chintz curtains in a deterrence is a product of a National readiness material and moral to wage Sac is at the Center of an ongoing com plex but of what the strategic Arsenal must include in order to absorb a soviet first strike and remain Able to inflict unacceptable damage on the soviet one difficult assessment is what docs the soviet elite consider unacceptable the United states can target strategic Mili tary support the Industrial and the leadership this last is crucial because the soviets have been rapidly increasing investment in dispersed and hardened shelters to protect Many thousands of the soviet elite in a nuclear the inescapable conclusion is that those who make and implement soviet policy regard shelters As War fighting and regard nuclear War As survivable and in commemorations of the end of the second world the great fact of the last 40 years has been too Little it is never in history has there been a Fritt ering away of military advantage comparable to that by the United relative to the soviet since Sac Headquarters is a place to in the minds the change imagine How a Sac commander of just 20 years ago would react to the intelligence data that pours in for today everywhere that technical Means of intelligence gathering look in the soviet menacing military activity is soviet planners know that in any crisis they will shoot and the task confronting soviet target ers is there Are Many fewer targets in the United states than in the soviet the soviet Union is larger and its targets Are increasingly hard dispersed and a significant and growing fraction of the soviet target base is the soviet Union could hold nearly half its strategic forces in re serve and with the other half do damage to the United states comparable to what the United states would do using All its forces against the soviet the Good news is that on june 30 years to the Day after the first b52 was delivered to the first by will be the last b52 was delivered 23 years so the youngest b52 is older than some members of its the by was killed by Jimmy Carter and resurrected by Ronald Reagan and is a suitable Symbol of the difference Reagan has made for David Broder the but even in some especially in an Era of High tech weapons such As the the most important variables in the military organization Are men and the crucial variable of morale May be about to vary because of a political climate to which Reagan policies have by shrinking the government s Revenue and making politically impossible even a Small restoration of the base through a tax Reagan has forced Congress to choose be tween cutting Middle class Domestic programs or Cut Ting the the result from Amtrak a Large bite from the shield of Many of sacs key personnel Middle rank men and women operating computers and other Complex systems could triple their incomes by entering the private that so Many stay in uniform is attributable to two one is a system of military pen Sions that is a form of deferred the other is High morale that results from believing the country appreciates what they Are this is jeopardized by the drumbeat of criticism of the and especially of political rhetoric encourages the Public to believe the budget can be balanced by curbing run away military spending and that the key is to Cut expensive strategic and eliminate screwdrivers and scandalous but strategic systems Are a Small slice of the defense budget and Congress Milays More Money in a morning than is spent on overpriced pensions become the target of of course one Way to run up the Cost of defending the country is to defend Amtrak subsidies by attacking the material and moral incentives that keep trained personnel in the one but not that the men and women who maintain americas shield Are too Busy doing so to notice some of the rubbish spoken by persons whose Liberty to speak rubbish is the result of the Washington Post writers group waiting Tor the conservative mood to swing left in recent issues of his biweekly the american political re and in an article in new York times Kevin Phillips has offered As interesting an analysis of the Reagan administration and its political prospects As anything that has come across this Phillips writes from the perspective of a conservative who shares Many All of reagans policy he has been not just a student but a proponent of the conservative movement since his late 1960s the emerging Republican written after a stint in the Nixon this background is part of what makes Phillips views so interesting Many including this reporter Are far More dubious of some of reagans but we have written of his election and reelection As signalling the Advent of a possible conserva Tive Era in National Phillips has been moving in the other he argues that 1984 is Likely to be seen As the highwater Mark of conservatism in this political and that the tide of senti ment and elections is far More Likely to swing Back in the other in his he has argued mainly that economic and political cycles Are con the conservatives he added a Spring to frustrate in the times third Factor the human Over ambition and exaggerated Pride or hubris which he says is leading the Reagan administration to misinterpret and overstate the mandate of his Phillips is the Popularizer of the notion of the six year he has drawn at Tention to the pattern of severe of year losses of House and gubernatorial seats for the presidents party in the sixth year after a change of party control of the White what happened to the republicans in 1958 and 1974 six years after Eisenhower and Nixon were first and what happened to the democrats in 1938 and 1966 six years after Roosevelt and Ken Nedy is Likely to happen to the gop in he said a political the political he is linked to an economic Cycle of severe recession or inflation occurring at that Point of a Par Tys tenure in the White As Many of the rest of us have watched the changing candidate picture for we have written about the improving Odds for continued gop control of the Senate and for gubernatorial we have seen reagans agreement to the Senate budget package As the possible Harbinger of sustained economic and we have suggested that tax re form is an Issue on which republicans May lock in the allegiance of previous ticket split ters and but through All the conservative Pessimist Phillips has been plucking at our Coats and do not disregard the patterns of the in the he has added another mandate hubris has helped Nur Ture excesses in the second term Reagan White ranging from interventionism in Nicaragua to cutbacks in social Security and other Middle class entitlement pro to Lavisse Zaire tolerance of Trade def to continuing emphasis on fundamentalist religious is Phillips right is Reagan in the process of blowing the conservatives big Chance there is a contradiction in Herent in his if the cycles of party growth and decline Are As ironclad As he suggests in his six year itch Theo then Reagan is powerless to Avert a Republican debacle in 1986 and probably in and his policies Are but i doubt the automatic Ity of those by a party that can reduce the deficits and tax rates tax Reform in its second As republicans May be Able to can per haps sustain economic growth and earn enor Mous political such a performance could Well outweigh voters doubts about elements of that party foreign policy arid social i think Phillips is right and enormously relevant in reminding us that All of american history suggests we will see swings in Public mood from want ing governmental activism to fearing and Back to the extent that Reagan has identified conservatism with outright opposition to any governmental initiatives unrelated to National he has almost certainly limited its Lon term tenure in Phillips is Wise in reminding his fellow conservatives in Power that people want More from government than stockpiles of As he the threats of americas jeopardized eroded manufacturing rundown transportation shaky financial institutions and troubled educational system May be about to Force Washington when they the voters May turn from reagans antigovernment rhetoric to the democrats for activist As the old saying what goes comes Washington Post group