European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - April 20, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse By Andrew Mollison Cox news service v Oters in 36 states will decide this Yea what to do about the disintegration of the most activist generation of state governors inmost world War ii history. George Wallace in Alabama recently became the 18th governor to announce that he won t run for re election this year. Eighteen Are expected to run again. The dropouts mentioned a variety of reasons including Job burnout congressional ambitions medical or political problems or limits in their state Constitution on consecutive terms. In any Case the mass bailout Means that at least 18 states will elect a new governor. The winners will determine whether the states continue to be laboratories for change in an Era where Federal Domestic programs Are shrinking. The Federal government in Washington is no longer the principal source of political innovation in our society said former Virginia gov. Charles Robb who started the departure of this generation of governors when he reached Virginia s two term limit last year and was replaced by another Democrat. Today most of the impetus for change and experimentation comes from the states Robb said. But that could change if voters replace the current crop with governors who Don t share the two common characteristics of the present group fiscal conservatism and a willingness to try new programs. Predicting winners of governors races is never easy. Governors have been three times As Likely As members of Congress to lose re election Battles in recent years. But this year with half of the 36 races wide open the outcome is especially unpredictable. History is against the republicans. In modern mid term elections the party in Power in the White House has lost an average of six governorships. That happens says political scientist John f. Bibley because without a presidential race the state executives become More visible and can be lightning rods attracting voter discontent. In the Grain Belt and Oil states this year economic distress is widespread. But political numbers Are against the democrats. They risk 27 seats this year and the republicans risk Only nine. Just because of sheer numbers we re obviously vulnerable said Chuck Dolan of the democratic governors association. We re not As cocky As the republicans who Are predicting they re 2 going to take As Many As a net gain of 10 Bill Greener of the Republican National committee cautiously predicted a net gop gain of More than three governorships. Governors races turn on local issues so beware of so called National patterns Greener warned. But there s no question that unlike the Senate where More republicans than democrats Are seeking re election we re playing offence in governors races this this is what top strategists from the two parties think will happen to the 13 democrats and five republicans who Are seeking re election five considered sure to win Are democrats Joe Frank Harris of Georgia Mario Cuomo of new York and Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts and republicans John Sununu of new Hampshire and Edward Deprete of Rhode Island. Six listed As probable winners Are democrats Rudy Perpich of Minnesota Richard Bryan of Nevada Madeline Kunin of Vermont and Bill Clinton of Arkansas and republicans James Thompson of Illinois and George Deukmejian of California. 6 the four least predictable races involve democrats Mark White of Texas James Blanchard of Michigan Anthony Earl of Wisconsin and Richard Celeste of Ohio. G the three incumbents in the deepest trouble Are democrats Bill Sheffield of Alaska and William o Neill of Connecticut and Republican Terry Brandstad of Iowa. Here is what the rival strategists think about the 14 democratic and four Republican seats being vacated All four Republican open seats Are toss . They Are in Oregon South Dakota Tennessee and Pennsylvania. Three democratic governorships that republicans have the Best Chance to take Are in Oklahoma where Henry Bellmon a former Republican governor and senator is popular Maine where a third party candidate could help a Strong Republican facing the Winner of a confusing democratic primary and new Mexico where departing gov. Toney Anaya s troubles could tar any democratic nominee. Democrats will probably retain four governorships. They Are in Maryland Alabama and Hawaii All traditional democratic strongholds and Kansas where democratic it. Gov. Tom Docking runs 27 to 53 Points ahead in test polls against the leaders of a crowded gop Field. The other seven races to succeed democrats Are toss . Those contests Are in Arizona Idaho Florida Colorado Wyoming South Carolina and Nebraska. Nebraska May make history by having the first gubernatorial race in which the Republican and democratic nominees Are both women. Gov. Mario Cuomo of new York left and Massachusetts gov. Michael Dukakis Are expected to be re elected. Gov. Richard Celeste is running for re election in Ohio. Up photos up photo Orval Faubus is a candidate for governor of Arkansas. If elected it would be his sixth term As governor of the state. By Raad Cawthon Cox news service o real Eugene Frobus 76-year-Olddemocratic candidate for governor of Arkansas leans Forward on his Couch Light another cigarette and tells Why he used National guardsmen to prevent nine Black students from enrolling in Little Rock Central High school in 1957. I wanted to Man Euver the Federal government into the position of enforcing its own court order which they did he says rubbing a wrinkled hand across his clean shaven upper lip. It s a settled Issue now. I regret that it happened but it did. It s a part of it was a time that put Arkansas and Orval Faubus on the map for Good when Black students in Little Rock for the first time tried to make Good on the 1954 . Supreme court ruling de segregating Public schools. Faubus then in the first of what would become a record six terms As Arkansas governor used the National guard to keep the Black children out of school until president Dwight Eisenhower sent in the 101st airborne div to assure their admission. It was a confrontation the Power of the state arrayed against the might of the Federal government that galvanized the nation. Nothing like it had been seen in America since Appomattox. Little Rock set the stage for the other racial confrontations that followed in places like Oxford Selma and Birmingham. And Orval Faubus s name along with the names of George Wallace and Lester Maddox became emblazoned on the Long list of racist Southern politicians. Now Faubus his ears filled with exhortations from aging supporters has roused himself for another run for office. It was ironic that Faubus announced his latest political resurrection the same week Alabama s gov. Wallace announced his departure from the political stage. But Faubus sees Little parallel Between himself and Wallace. Wallace once the nation s Best known segregationist converted himself in later campaigns into a born again populist and received the support of the majority of Alabama s Black voters. But Faubus despite the desire by some to see him do it has never said what he did in 1957 was wrong. In his Small cluttered apartment in a High Rise building near the Arkansas River Faubus is unrepentant and says he is not like Wallace and never was. I always thought my being pictured As a segregationist was a bum rap he says one Long hand nervously clicking a pair of eyeglasses the other holding a cigarette. It is difficult for people to understand the attitude that prevailed then in Arkansas and across the Faubus Points out that he never painted himself As a segregationist but was instead Content to take the politically prudent course of letting people guess what he was. And Faubus Points out that in 1960, when he ran for re election he was opposed by a Rabid segregationist candidate who accused Faubus of being soft on the race Issue. The confrontation at Little Rock Central was a matter of the governor trying to keep a lid on the problem and to protect lives and property he says. Let s go Back and think if i had t done something Faubus says. There would have been four or five people killed and the bitterness would have lingered and lingered. I Don t think there is any bitterness gov. Bill Clinton the progressive 39-year-old, three term governor of Arkansas who is running for re election is not so sure. What Faubus did cast a terrible pall Over this state and its image for years he says. Clinton is considered the heavy favorite in the democratic gubernatorial primary set for May 27. Yet Clinton admits Faubus is a serious candidate with the potential to do him damage. Faubus is a tragic character to me Clinton says. He had tremendous ability. But he represents a past we Don t want to return in what he Hopes will be one of the themes of this Campaign Clinton says the main Issue is whether Arkansas future is going to be different than Arkansas Faubus for his part says the state is ready to return to a governor who understands the problems and concerns of the common Man. He claims Clinton one of the rising stars of the democratic party and a Man whose name is once again being bandied about As a possible presidential candidate has lost touch with Arkansas. Most of the people have lost Faith in Clinton because he is a Fence rider Faubus says. There is such a thing As being Neutral but there is no such thing As being on both sides and that is what he s attempted to but Faubus who has yet to open a Campaign Headquarters is not specific about his charges against Clinton or about his own ideas for Arkansas. When asked about his programs he talks vaguely about lowering interest rates cutting Utility Bills and taxes and sweeping the liberals from office. And when someone asks him about the alleged abuses of his administration the gambling in hot Springs the cronyism lax insurance regulations Faubus sweeps them away with an airy wave of his hand. You can make enough charges in five minutes to keep any candidate explaining for five hours. But there was really no scandal in any of those things he says. As much difference As there is Between Clinton and Faubus they Are inexorably tied. Faubus left office voluntarily in 1967 after beating the Well heeled Republican Winthrop Rockefeller for a sixth term in 1965. Even though he won that race analysts say Faubus who had one of the most powerful political machines in the state s history saw the writing on the Wall put there by the Well financed Rockefeller. With Faubus out of the race in 1968, Rockefeller became the state s governor. Faubus languished out of office and his once potent machine shattered. Never a wealthy Man Faubus fell into financial difficulties and became a Bank Teller in his adopted Home of Huntsville. Twice in 1970 and 1974, he roused himself to run for governor and lost both races. During the latter part of the decade beset with bad health and personal trials including a divorce the death of his second wife and the death of his son Faubus dropped from the political consciousness of Arkansas. He said he needed a warmer climate and moved to Houston. A series of Young progressive democrats like Dale bumpers David Pryor and Bill Clinton captured the state s electoral attention. Then in 1979, Clinton was elected to his first term and in a move that caused controversy invited Faubus Back to his gala inaugural introduced him from the podium and embraced him publicly. Like an aging ghost once disturbed Faubus has haunted Clinton Ever since. Clinton now says he was Only following an old Arkansas tradition by inviting All living governors to return for the inaugural. I thought perhaps he wanted to do As George Wallace did in Alabama that he had some things he wanted to reconcile with the people. I guess that just shows How naive i was Clinton says now. 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