European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - January 26, 1989, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes columns George will cheap Oil a big Blessing but obscures the future return of the pln0sau�s twelve years ago a new administration began by declaring a dramatic moral equivalent of War on the Energy crisis. But Ever since 1891, when the . Geological Survey discounted the possibility of discovering Oil in Texas the world has had pleasant surprises. In 1965, proven world reserves were 353 billion barrels in 1979, 611 billion today 887 billion. Iran s reserves Are huge. Iraq s May match saudi Arabia s. Geological formations in Western China suggest vast reserves As does the fact that Siberia is on the same latitude Salaska s Prudhoe Bay. . Taxpayers now own 560 million barrels in the strategic Petroleum re serve with a distribution capacity of 4million barrels a Day. The apr is a weapon against open s Oil weapon but open s weapon has been largely Dis armed by economic and technological developments. It has been said that if the Strait of Hormuz were closed the lights would go out. But that Strait is hard to close and harder still to keep closed. Anyway last year on one Day five tankers were Burn ing in the persian Gulf and the Price of Oil barely moved. Markets know the Oil will flow. Pipelines connect Iraq with the Mediterranean and the red sea. In the 1990s, upwards of 7 million barrels a Day will be Able to leave the persian Gulf by pipe line. Furthermore three of America s top four suppliers Mexico Canada Venezu Ela saudi Arabia is the fourth Are no insecure sources. Open is not impotent. Absent open Oil might Cost $7 rather than $12-$ 15. But Many open nations have development needs that require a High Cash flow. Thus they need High production of Oil. Furthermore both Iran and Iraq have War debts exceeding $40 billion and each needs at least that much for reconstruction. Cash hungry open nations Are not exactly mendicant begging for markets but they Are in effect buying markets by Means of downstream  they Are buying refineries and service stations. Such producers e.g., Taco intjs0 p1? for Vears Means the us Oil economic vigor "?.dustrv.� in Twilight. Eighty percent of the probable persistence of the Oil conservation has far exceeded 1970s projections. Gasoline costs less today in real terms than at almost any time since 1935, but today s automobile Fleet goes 50 percent farther on a gallon than in 1976. However american demand is growing and american production is dropping. We Are importing 42 percent of our needs we hit a High of 48 percent in 1977 and Oil imports account for one Quarter of the Trade deficit. But there Are non economic As Well As economic arguments for draining foreign sources first. And there is no compelling argument for Rushing exploration in the Arctic National wildlife Refuge or off California s coast. If the Price goes High enough Sev eral centuries Supply of Oil can be extracted from Sand shale and other sources in Colorado Canada and else where in this hemisphere. But even with out Scarcity there is a move to alternative forms of Energy. Japan s strategic Petroleum Reserve May be plutonium As Japan becomes More reliant even than France on nuclear Power. Australia May become the saudi Arabia of uranium. Fifty seven percent of America s electricity is generated by Coal of which America has a 300 to 500-year Supply. But we do not want to pay the Environ mental costs of mining and burning it. This is especially so because of the Green House effect which is aggravated by Bur Ning hydrocarbons. Natural Gas is a relatively benign fuel and . Reserves of it May be As Large As . Oil reserves. Furthermore vast quantities of natural Gas Are being found in places like Qatar s North dome Field the largest discovery Ever. And the Pacific rim is an extremely promising source. Most of the data in this column comes from John Herrington who just stepped Down As Secretary of Energy. The data Point toward several hopeful conclusions and a chastening conclusion cheap Oil although it inhibits the search for alternative Energy sources that might be environmentally preferable is on balance a big Blessing. And the Pace and direction of change in the Energy picture in the last dozen years is a timely reminder to the new administration of Jim Fain midget Man needed in Slimmer defense budget the rat s nest the rat s nest of defense said. He fire cow a Romfo a a u.  to decisions awaiting president Bush one Toughie ought to be made quickly. It s time to end the dec Ade Long haggling Over modernizing the land based strategic missile Force and Start producing midget Man. This Mobile single warhead missile bears a $50-billion Price tag but is the Only Way to maintain an Invulnerable land based deterrent. Along with the new highly accurate Trident ii d-5 missile it is the Blue Chip we need for a retaliatory punch completely secure from enemy attack. In a last minute burst of false Economy the Rea Gan administration sought to dump midget Man in favor of rail Basing the 10-warhead my. Defense Secretary Frank Carlucci argued that intelligence inevitably would provide the five to six hour warn ing needed to scramble my onto tracks from it sitting Duck Cradle. Fortunately incoming National Security adviser rent scowcroft is midget Man s longtime Friend. He retorted that raw intelligence never has ensure Correct military decisions. We had plenty of warning of Pearl Harbor he said. He foresaw a confused few hours during Anabert with such contingencies As european allies urging caution on a president beset with conflicting advice. My never made sense As proved by a Succes Sion of oddball Basing plans. We bought it out of strategic bewilderment and Industry greed in the austerity ahead we cannot afford such mistakes we have to slim Down to a Bare Bones menu of weapons systems. As a result it s vital we pick the right ones. Midget Man s single warhead makes it costly target. It can be kept in perpetual motion it s the most survivable land system yet conceived. Cap Weinberger s Long spending spree mainly provided the services with a romantic journey Down nostalgia Lane. All three Are in love with the weapons 9f their youth. Admirals dote on huge carriers sitting ducks in a real War. Air Force flyby yearn for manned strategic bombers in an Era when they cannot penetrate enemy airspace. Patton s Oro Geny want dreadnought tanks. Reagan wasted $28 billion by reviving the a which Carter had cancelled. The b-2 will be far More expensive and probably As ineffective the nuclear triad is not As sacred As the Pentagon makes e i uen s0 in 9an be maintained at a fraction of health s Price with stand off bombers firing cruise missiles. Pagan s Star wars fantasy is totally unrealistic. S Cut to , sustainable  such drastic economies will be necessary to get defense Down to affordable numbers but the Fatis there for the cutting. Reagan gave us billionaire Drunken sailors. Next to deficit and Iran Contra Stal a waste ?1 be his most testing  s people will need to make a Tough Examina Tion 9 Overall strategy before combing out Duplica Tion in roles and missions. Though defense Secre tary John Tower is a dubious Choice for this Bare knuckle exercise scowcroft is first rate. One priority should be to Force career minded brass into the Grunt work of redesigning conventional forces and providing the limited War and anti terrorist capability we be Long been promised but never received. That la take awhile but there s no reason Toad ii m scrubbing unnecessary weapons systems and no need for any delay whatever in funding mid Ian much time s been wasted already on Cox news service