European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - February 5, 1989, Darmstadt, Hesse Iranians Here lined up for elections in 1986 outside the great mosque in the holy City of qom Are increasingly obsessed with How much longer Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini will live and what will happen when he Dies. Political uncertainty amid moves to end isolation by de Blanche associated press Han s islamic revolution has survived 10 turbulent years against All the Odds bloody internal strife a crippling eight year War with Iraq and the hostility of Nuch of the world. On feb. 1 11979, nine Days after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini Nemesis of the Shah of Shah returned to Tehran in Triumph from 15 years of exile his bearded revolutionaries a in Ujj to me being at least the most powerful figure after Khomeini. Caln Dillons or the most aha nor the dispossessed in whose nan16 the revolution was waged. Eye St have not been Able to clarify for people economic benefits As befits islam As we have differences of Odin on among ourselves Over these issues he said. Have not vet tackled the Day to Day aspects of islamic above a ran ans Are increasingly obsessed with How or urn Conqer Khomeini will live and what will happen when a Dies. The Stern Tecec shiite moslem spiritual Leader father of the Revo ution and its undisputed authority is 88 years old a d a sorted to be in poor health rarely venturing from his in quaked residence in the Jamar an suburb of North Hran 9where the Shah s elite once lived. When he is ran faces a Power struggle Between its t some iranians fear could even Start a civil War. D0itical analysts believe that the revolution will at expected turmoil but that its ideological Gud will Likely undergo considerable change Din on in in faction comes out on top. P n time being a Sfanjani and his allies who include president Ali Khamenei foreign minister Ali Akbar Velamati and Khomeini s son Ahmed who controls Access to his ailing father in his North Tehran stronghold appear to have the upper hand. But they face stiff challenges in the Days ahead from hardliners such As Interior minister Ali Akbar Mohtashemi prime minister Hussein Musavi and others who fear his policies Are eroding the revolution s islamic purity. The revolution has endured and it s there to stay said Hans Heino Kopietz a seasoned analyst of iranian affairs with the London based International Institute for strategic studies. But revolutions do not remain rigid for very Long because there Are too Many internal pressures he said in a Telephone interview. A civil War after Khomeini Dies is a possibility. The Power Center in Tehran will probably be Strong enough to prevent Iran s polarizing but the revolution will have to redefine itself if it is to Philip Robbins an analyst with London s Royal Institute for International affairs said outsiders have focused largely on the negative aspects of the last 10 years in Iran its failure in the War and in the Economy two of its flagship policies. But the revolution has done More than just get rid of the Shah. Iran is now very much its own Boss. It has asserted its Independence very forcefully. Whether or not you like the regime its self Confidence and survival have to be the War with Iraq in which by some Western estimates 1 million iranians were killed and tens of thousands maimed was a unifying Force that muted the bickering in the Hierarchy and maintained revolutionary momentum. The end of the War last August when Khomeini reluctantly accepted a United nations sponsored cease fire after a Chain of Battlefield defeats removed that veneer exposing and intensifying the bitter infighting Between rivals for Power in the Post Khomeini Era. Iran s 83-member Council of experts formed in 1983 to in a i \ u United Arab emirates Oman Kuwait saudi Arabia a parliament speaker Hashemi a Sfanjani left the country s leading political pragmatist is considered the most powerful figure in Iran after Khomeini thronged by supporters at far left after his return to Iran from exile in 1979. Designate a successor to Khomeini selected grand Ayatollah Hussein Ali Montazeri two years later. Khomeini apparently went along with that Choice but Many iranian leaders opposed it. Khomeini last year made out a new political testament to be opened after his death in which he reportedly indicated that he now prefers that a triumvirate of senior figures run Iran after his demise. Since the cease fire there have been persistent reports that hundreds possibly thousands of dissidents have been executed including supporters of Montazeri in an apparent Effort to eliminate opposition in the aftermath of Iran s sudden collapse in the War. Khomeini s grudging acceptance of a cease fire at a Sfanjani s urging embittered Many hardliners even if it came As a Relief to Many other iranians. A Sfanjani who is also acting commander in chief and Montazeri s main rival is considered to be behind the current crackdown. It is thought to be the most severe since the regime systematically wiped out its leftist and Liberal allies in 1981 when tens of thousands of people were believed to have been killed. Yet it has come hand in hand with a general move to liberalize Iran s repressive political Structure. Several iranian leaders have called for greater Freedom of expression and a greater role for the Long suppressed private sector in the Economy. The government has passed a Law allowing the formation of political parties provided they Don t conspire against the regime. Even Hartline radicals such As Mohtashemi an increasingly powerful figure and intelligence minister Mohammad Rey Shahri have joined this chorus. Many see this sudden outbreak of tolerance particularly among the radicals to be Little More than an Effort by the various factions to consolidate their Power bases for the Battle for the succession they All see coming. There is no external threat to the regime despite the noises made by opposition groups in exile but after the War it s not surprising that the regime would direct people s thought toward an internal threat Robbins noted. Despite bitter opposition a Sfanjani s policy of building Bridges to the West and Iran s suspicious Arab neighbors in the Gulf is seen As a Triumph of pragmatism Over revolutionary fanaticism. A Sfanjani stressed in a keynote statement recently that revolutionary Fervour had led Iran to make Many mistakes in the Early Days of the revolution. We have Learned not to create unnecessary obstructions he said. We should not embark on making enemies for in a speech soon after a Sfanjani echoed other leaders by calling on some of the hundreds of thousands of educated iranians who Are among the 2 million who have fled since 1979 to return Home to help in postwar reconstruction. If we improve conditions if we give up some of the Short sightedness some of the excesses and some of the crude aspects which were the requirements of the Early general moves to liberalize Iran s repressive political Structure include Calls by leaders for greater Freedom of expression Here a Tehran Street scene. Stages of the revolution and that we have no need of nowadays we will be Able to attract them Back to the country he said. Montazeri who has Long advocated greater Freedom of expression possibly so his voice could be heard in Media largely controlled by a Sfanjani noted in a speech to islamic students if we do not tolerate listening to views opposed to ours those opposition remarks will soon be turned into for most iranian leaders this is a remarkable turnaround from the inflammatory exhortations to the world s 800 million moslem to Rise up in the name of a resurgent islam As Well As Tehran s Long maintained drive to Export its revolution. They be had to Compromise their islamic revolutionary principles to get International economic help to rebuild the country Robbins said. It s a sign of political postwar Iran s first major political test will come in August when the fourth presidential election will be held. Khamenei who has served two terms cannot run for a third under the Constitution. A Sfanjani whose political cunning has earned him the nickname of the shark is understood to be pressing for constitutional reforms to give the presidency greater executive Power and install one of his allies. The presidency is just one of several competing Power centers in Tehran a situation that has complicated the contradictory trends within the Hierarchy. Analysts agree that until the Power struggle is settled and a coherent leadership emerges Iran faces further late Shah in 1979 after fleeing Iran at right with Egypt s Anwar Sadat who was later assassinated the stars and stripes sunday february 5,1989 the stars and stripes Page 15
