European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - June 10, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                What do you do without a cold War nato Cor Lan nothing to report except Tom Are attack Mem to swoop tree at the North sate academically minded and the military Between the thinkers and the fighters. To their critics defense intellectuals were the wizards of armageddon As Fred Kaplan a Boston Globe reporter called them in his Book on Rand. Men and women who in another age might have pored Over great books or solved scientific problems turned instead to thinking about War an Enterprise that won ample financing from the growing defense establishment. Rand s $95.5 million annual budget 78 percent of which comes from the military supports about 1,100 people about one fourth of whom hold . Randy a analysts View themselves As Independent sorts hired by the various branches of the military precisely because they can offer opinions at least moderately dispassionate. Azrael said he had been pleasantly surprised by the by . Dionne or. Washington Post Hen president Bush met with president Mikhail s. Gorbachev last week during the Post cold War Summit he also was deciding the fortunes and careers of thousands of americans who have devoted their working lives to rehearsing War with the soviet Union. For four decades these physicists engineers political scientists economists and other Quot defense intellectuals Quot under contract to the Pentagon have replayed scenarios for War in Central Europe Over and Over. They know every Rock and Rifle in Germany every tree and tank in Poland every meandering Stream and missile silo in the Ukraine. They came to understand the minute details of countless Battles that have never happened. They applied extraordinary scientific and technical sophistication to issues like How the attacked Side in a nuclear War might preserve enough weapons to launch a second strike. They understood the inner Workings of communist bureaucracies throughout Central Europe and predicted with varying Success which communist officials were on the Rise or in decline. Suddenly the chief premise of their work a the notion of a world organized around the  conflict a is falling apart. As a result the defense intellectuals Are scrambling to figure out what to do next. Their jobs depend on their ability to imagine a new world order a labor for which there is much Short term demand and on their Long term skill in adapting to a situation few of them predicted. Many defense analysts say there still will be much for them to do. But some express concern that there will be pressure to invent new threats to . Security. Quot there is a terrible danger that defense intellectuals will have to go whoring Quot said Jeremy Azrail a soviet specialist at the Rand corp. In Santa Monica calif., perhaps the Premier . Military research Center. Quot folks in the services will go looking for threats out  the Prospect of a new world order is causing excitement and anxiety at Rand s sprawling Campus of Aust rely functional 1950s-style buildings facing the Pacific Ocean. Founded after world War ii to give advice and intellectual heft to the air Force Rand became the Symbol to friends and enemies alike of the military Industrial Complex of a new style of intellectual Endeavor involving a close Alliance Between the a there is a terrible danger that defense intellectuals will have to go whoring. Folks in the services will go looking for threats out there. A Jeremy Azrail the Rand corp. Willingness of most Rand analysts to accept the disappearance of the cold War world that had been very Good to them. A there was a kind of Community vested interest in saying that the world really had t changed a he said. Quot what impressed me is the rapidity with which folks recognized the obvious a that the world had changed an awful  still Azrael and others at Rand worry about what their fellow National Security intellectuals might do just to keep the old business alive. Quot it May be much harder to stay honest in a world of tight budgets Quot Azrael said warning against Quot new shibboleths like the muslims Are going to get  the end of the cold War has forced Large changes at Rand no less than within the Pentagon itself. Quot every study has been affected one Way or another Quot said Michael Rich vice president of Randy a National Security research division. Quot we be cancelled some downsized  among the biggest losers Are War Between the United states and the soviet Union in Central Europe the principal preoccupation of Many defense analysts for 40 years. No War in history has been better planned Analysed acted out on computers and replayed than the one Between the nato and the Warsaw pact. Quot we have a Battlefield that s been mapped instrumented and signed Quot said James Quinlivan a program director with Rand s project air Force. Quot those units that have been there have been planning Down to the tree they would have been  now it is not Only much harder to imagine a War breaking out in Central Europe but also to figure out How it might be fought. Rich said that planners thinking about such a War now have to plan for Many More contingencies a for example the poles resisting a soviet invasion. A much bigger task is figuring out just How big a military the United states might need and what the military would be used for if the cold War is truly Over. Like stockbrokers who make a commission whether they buy or sell Rand analysts who helped plan the military buildup during the Reagan years Are hard at work thinking about How to Cut defense in the 1990s. People at Rand Are a trifle sensitive Over the failure of virtually All National Security analysts including themselves to predict the upheavals in Eastern Europe. Quot in no Way can you say that any piece of work predicted what would happen in 1989,&Quot said Rich echoing the View of others at Rand. But he quickly added that a number of Rand studies foreshadowed the events of 1989 by demonstrating weaknesses within the soviet system and the tenuous nature of its ties with its Eastern european satellites. Still the general Tenor at Rand is become ugly modest a Quality not normally associated with defense intellectuals. A this year analysts Are a lot More Humble and they should be Quot said Stephen m. Drezner vice president of Randy a army division. The surest sign that the world really is changing is that Rand analysts Are now speaking of a kind of intellectual peace dividend a the possibility of beating intellectual swords into Plo shares. They expect to do More work on Domestic problems. The glimmering of a Kinder gentler Rand corp. Already Are visible in its new thinking about what it wants to study in Eastern Europe. No one Ever thought of Rand As an environmental organization but Drezner said that Rand was trying to find environmentalists who specialize in Eastern Europe to help East european nations with massive pollution problems. Jonathan Pollack head of Rand s political science department said that growth areas for Rand included studies on India Japan and China. Rand also is undertaking a Large study of the andean nations in connection with the drug Trade and doing considerable work on the Middle East. Sunday june 10, 1990 the stars and stripes a Page 13