European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - August 12, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Sunday August 12, 1990 the stars and stripes Page 13 business news a 9 Middle East Likely to guide Dollar s path predictions Are mixed for where the Dollar might be headed As tension remains High in the Middle East. Economists and currency traders Are keeping a close Eye on the Price of Oil the buildup of american troops in the Region and the Battle lines taking shape on the Border separating Iraq and Kuwait from saudi Arabia. Late last week world Oil prices were in the neigh boyhood of $25 per barrel after having skyrocketed to almost $28 per barrel earlier in the week. But even the $25-per-barrel level is consid ered by Many experts to be Steep enough to tip the teetering . Economy into a recession in the third and fourth quarters this year. And that could be a serious blow to the Dollar. Foreign Exchange analysts said the Buck s Best prospects for gains Are if the persian Gulf confrontation escalates into a shooting War. If the situation escalates it could mean a temporary move up for the Dollar perhaps to 1.65 Marks said Petra Ott an economist with Citi Bank in Frankfurt West Germany. On Friday afternoon the Dollar n j Rii s was trading in the Randy Mcclain neighbourhood of 1.5965 Marks in Europe. The military Exchange Rale for the weekend was set at 1.57 Marks based on a mid afternoon Price fixing in Frankfurt. That represents a net gain of 1 pfennig on the week. In England 1 Pound was Selling for $1.868 Friday afternoon on the world Market and the military Exchange rate was set at $1.91 per Pound for . . Ott said the Dollar is not Likely to fall in the next few Days particularly if the Middle East remains a hot spot. But Tim Fox a currency analyst with Midland Montagu Bank in London said he s personally disappointed that the Dollar has t done better in recent Days. Its minimal gains even in this time of world crisis illustrate that financial markets have Little Faith in the . Economy he said. Our opinion at Citibank is that the Dollar would be lower already if the situation in the Middle East had not taken place Ott added. The tension has helped to stabilize the Dollar around its present   Fox said Oil prices could be the key to where the Dollar trades in the weeks ahead. Rising Oil prices most economic experts believe would be a particularly difficult development for the United states which relies on imports for More than 50 percent of its Energy needs. So what direction will Oil prices Lake on London Oil analyst who spoke on the Onia Ilion that his name Noi be used it d the liver to that question depend1, on military developments. I War Breaks out Between Iraq and Trio United states we will go Way past $30 a  he said. The analyst pointed out that world Oil prices stabilized somewhat last week As evidence mounted that the United states is willing to dip into its strategic Petroleum reserves and that Venezuela and saudia Arabia appear willing to increase their production to make up for the loss of 5 million barrels of Oil per Day from Iraq. The analyst said however that tapping re serves and increasing Oil production can keep prices Down Only so Long. If an effective economic embargo remains in place against. Iraq the Oil Market could get tighter and tighter and prices would Rise significantly even shout a shooting War in the Middle East he said. If bullets Are fired All bets Are off the analyst added. Any escalation would Lead to Over-$30 � l. And if there is any permanent damage to saudi arabian Oil Fields or even a temporary cuts1 Supply for six months or so the world s in ii Uble basically he said. The stars and stripes off base jobs in England soften blow of weak Dollar Dave Diehl . Bureau Raf Greenham common England Ameri cans living and working on military bases in much of Europe May be feeling the Pinch As european Curren cies squeeze life out of the almighty Dollar. But in England some americans Are fighting Back by working on the local Economy and getting paid in pounds. As the Dollar dipped last week to its lowest Mark against British Sterling in More than two years Esra Saunders the wife of an air Force no assigned to Raf Greenhorn common said she did t even feel it. Saunders 28, is an office manager with racial Voda fone a big cellular phone company in Newbury. She said she rarely thinks about the Dollar s  and Downs. She s too Busy climbing the English corporate ladder and pulling Down a salary paid in the Ever strengthening Pound. Saunders wife of tech. Sgt. Cortland Saunders is one of Many americans at . Bases in Britain who have opted to work off base rather than on. Some choose to go off base for the pay others for the convenience and a few for the adventure. But there is no language Barrier and getting a Job in the British business world is much the same As in the United states. Jobs also Are plentiful in most parts of the country. Saunders said she in t working for a British company Only for the Money. My theory is if i m going to be living in a foreign country i m going to get to know the people said the native of Shelby . Still based on the current Exchange rate of i Pound to $1.91, Saunders is making the equivalent of More than $19,000 a year. She anticipates a promotion and a raise by the end of August. With that raise will come a company car a common perk for mid level managers in England. Even the tax consequences of working in great Brit Ain Aren t that bad. Americans working on the econ omy generally Are required to pay British taxes which Are on a similar scale to those in the United states. Rick Meyers a 24-year-old air Force Veteran said he Only briefly considered taking a Job on an american military base when he arrived in England two years ago with his wife air Force tech. Sgt. Paula Kyle. I looked on the base but the jobs they were offer ing did t seem to have much of a future he said. I had just come out of the air Force and i wanted to do something i could use my mind  american Margaret Kuti rings up groceries. Sas  of out student Sidney Gill stocks shelves it the Tysco store. On military base s in England salaries Range from around $8,320 per year for a food service worker or bar assistant to about $ 14,600 annually for skilled labourers. Meyers works for first Alert a big name american smoke alarm company near Newbury and is making about $17,000 a year not including what co workers say will be an almost certain $1,900 Christmas Bonus. Meyers said he landed the Job through a British employment  and Meyers arc Lucky to be living in one of England s most thriving areas. The communities of Reading and Newbury ab9ut 60 Miles West of London Are 1980s Boom towns still going Strong. The area is populated by a number of electronics companies Lead ing some to dub the Region England s Silicon Valley. When jobs Are plentiful off base though it can he difficult to find workers willing to fill lower paying jobs on base. "1 Don t have a Secretary sitting in my office because the wages Are about 3,000 to .4,000 pounds less than downtown said Apt. Mike rein the Public affairs officer at Grenham common s 501st tac missile Wing. Moreover working conditions air often belter Oil base said 17-year-old Sidney Gill a student and the son of a air Force staff sergeant Gill look a Job Al Kal Milden Hall s Burger bar earlier this year but left after Only a few weeks because he did t like the environment. It was Messy he said. Gill s new Job is stocking shelves at the Tesco grocery store near his Home. Gill is one of about three do in americans who work at Tesco which is Only a few Hundred Yards away from the Large Raf Lakenheath and Mildenhall hous ing area at stud lands  manager Neville Goodchild said he s Happy to have the american contingent among his 308 workers. We find the americans work better than the English Goodchild said. If you ask an american to do some thing they want to do it right. The English Are not that  the americans working for Goodchild mostly fill jobs As Cashiers and stockers. Their wages Range from the equivalent of about $5.90 an hour to about $10 an hour for evening work. The Only problem with americans is the occasional tendency to have other interests that interfere with their work schedules Goodchild said. Students sometimes take off work for school activities and on base exercises some times interfere with military spouses schedules. G