European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - August 24, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Saturday August 24, 1991 the stars and stripes a Page 13commentaryellen Goodman Dawn came with an ominously heavy rain and we turned on the radio for word of Hurricane Bob coming up the Maine coast. What we heard however Hadnot been predicted by even the most knowledgeable expert. There was news from the East. Winds of change. The soviet Union was suddenly As unstable and dangerous As any tropical storm. In the Cove fishermen secured the last floats and Dorries working together in their deceptively unhurried Way. On Shore we followed their Lead stashing the chairs and Hammock in the barn taping windows pausing regularly to listen to the updates from Moscow As Well As Portland. The speculation about damage the snippets of information mixed with opinion the memories of past upheavals came interchangeably from meteorologists and Sovi ecologists. There was More speculation from the Kissinger than the National weather service. As we went about our business moving the Wood on our neighbors porch checking windows bolting the door we were mindful of the uncertainty of the world. Our double vision focused on Gorbachev and on Bob on revolution and on the search for the Hurricane lamp. Is this we mused what the environmentalists mean when they say a think globally act locally we dug out flashlights and candles. By lunch the lights were gone by 3 . The phone was out. Our Contact with the world off Island was Down to one Battery operating a single Headset radio. Every Naif hour it delivered the news that Gorbachev was a sick a that a a a committee had declared itself in command that Bob would hit with the High tide. And that All we could do now at this Shoreline was wait and see. As the winds Bent the Maple Trees As if they were Bamboo and the rain came in great sheets across the Bay i thought about that other sea change. I had been in Moscow just weeks after Gorbachev had taken Power. The most remarkable images were brought into my hotel room and into soviet Homes by the evening news., a new face a Man not yet familiar to the world was strolling through the City Square talking to Ordinary citizens one night. The next night he was in a Bob Dart storms worse nature s those were the inns i Joe staun Tuere is a  6o& factory arguing animatedly and also a this was extraordinary a listening. The soviets i met those weeks weathered and cynical were not Quick to believe in change or certainly in its permanence. Yet under this weary surface there was something Akin to Hope. Even my interpreter the woman i came to Call Anna the Flake because she made a farce of Kab efficiency admitted that this Man was different. After a string of old men propped into the presidents chair something new was happening. Evidence of the third world Economy abounded. The hotel i was in served soft boiled eggs at 7 . And hard boiled at 7 30 . Buying a loaf of bread a the one thing in abundance a required standing in three lines before three surly workers. And those were a the Good old  the most useful Way for a beleaguered journalist to confront soviet red tape was with one russian phrase that Means a this is  uttered in desperation to clerks to bureaucrats even to sociologists in Leningrad it brought a knowing smile and help. Everyone knew the system was crazy. So much happened in those years. So much More seemed possible. The world breathed More easily a Eastern Europe More freely. But in Russia the system remained crazy. What happens now there is no forecast to rely on. Playing scrabble at the Kitchen table by kerosene lamp we pass the news Back and Forth. The Early word coming through the Battery powered Headset is that a hard liners have taken Over and that the seas Are 20 to 30 feet. We live now in these two worlds one natural the other Man made a one As local As a single Cove the other As global As the satellite beaming its news from one continent to another. But our lives depend on both. Swiftly the Hurricane moved on More gently now to other coves. In the clarity of the next morning sunlight we go out to assess its damage. The storm has picked the weakest branches. Chestnuts litter the ground. One Pear clings to the tree. Within another Day the coup would also be described As a dangerous gust. But Man made storms arc rarely so selective or so Short lived. Here at the Eastern Edge of the country at the end of one storm and Stilt in the Eye of another the Ocean seems deceptively peaceful. C the Boston glob once again we see Good Guys beat bad Guys for americans watching it unfold on television the Quick and Happy conclusion to the drama in the soviet Union provided another boost to the National psyche. A it was a very reassuring ending. There Are definite parallels to desert storm a said Ray Browne a professor of popular culture at Bowling Green state University in Ohio. A the Good Guys were threatened by the bad Guys a we know they were bad Guys because iraqi Leader Saddam Hussein embraced them a but the Good Guys won in the end a he explained. A and there were Only about 100 hours of  in this nation of Short attention spans the collapse of a coup in the soviet Union was quickly interpreted wednesday As a Boon for the . Economy for the political futures of Boris Yeltsin and George Bush and for the average Guy is concept of cosmic order. A a it a like the �?T60s finally got to the soviet Union in 1991,�?� Browne said summing up history in terms that baby Boomers could understand. Indeed As the Distant events began to Wane there was a Rush of experts to explain what it All Means Yeltsin the elected Leader of Russia and the soviet people were proclaimed the obvious winners in this intrigue while the eight unsuccessful coup sters Are the obvious losers. But less obvious ramifications will be Felt on main Street .a., As Well As in Moscow according to economists political analysts and academics. For instance midwestern Farmers Are breathing a sign of Relief because the restoration of Mikhail s. Gorbachev and constitutional government in the soviet Union probably will mean a restoration of Grain credits that enable the soviets to buy their crops. There Are other potential benefits that can be measured in dollars and cents. The failure of the coup helps a give people a feeling of peace and stability a said Don Bowles an economics professor at american University in the nations capital. A this could be the a Factor that could improve consumer confidences and Spur spending needed to kick Start a sluggish Economy. The outcome will also help Stabi Lize Oil prices he said and a rising Oil prices might have tipped us Back into  financial markets greeted the collapse of the coup with Joy. Wall Street stocks soared Over 88 Points to beyond the 3,000 Barrier their biggest gain since january. Politically the Odds increased that president Bush will occupy the White House for another four years. The turn of events a certainly looks very positive for the world the nation the soviet people and coincidentally for Bush a said William Schneider a political analyst with the american Enterprise Institute. An International crisis a exaggerates the stature Gap Between the Republican president and his democratic challengers said Schneider. A sometimes Bush seems to be president of the world. Foreign policy successes have enhanced his image substantially. The democrats have some potential candidates with National reputations but they done to have foreign policy  underscoring the situation sen. Albert Gore jr., d-tenn., announced he would not seek the presidency in 1992. The Only declared democratic candidate former sen. Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts praised Bush a handling of the crisis. The people who stood up to tanks have also won a new respect and perhaps some financial help in replacing communism with capitalism. On Capitol Hill there was already talk of providing Aid and Trade advantages to the soviet Union. There was perhaps also a new understanding of How Little is actually understood about the soviet Union. A i done to think the average american has Inderst kid the extent to which there has been political chaos in the past six months and How much Power has moved away from Gorbachev to Yeltsin and How much from Moscow to the republics a said Louise Shelly an International affairs professor at american University. A a they re in for an unstable period in the future a she cautioned. A just because a coup failed does no to mean everything goes Back to the Way it was  c Cox nows service