European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - February 21, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Friday february 21, 1992 the stars and stripes Page 13 commentary George of will disarray undermining gop  a was we amp 9ta�conservative a Bush strategist evidently mystified said wonderingly a the went up to new Hampshire and the Bottom fell  what a the mystery Bush becoming strident incoherent and preposterous finished this new Hampshire Campaign flexing Arnold Schwarzenegger a Muscles whining about negative campaigning and misrepresenting his last new Hampshire Campaign. A i never did take the pledge a Bush said plaintively referring to the no new taxes pledge in new Hampshire in 1988. There May be some Pett fogging hair splitting lawyerly sense in which Bush a claim is not technically false a perhaps he did not sign a piece of paper a but he repeatedly said he would not raise taxes and he won new Hampshire Only because of his barrage of negative ads saying Bob Dole could not be trusted not to raise taxes. Bush complaining about negative campaigning is a merriment. Never mind the Willie Horton pledge of allegiance Boston Harbor shelling of Dukakis or the branding of Dole As a senator straddle regarding taxes. But do remember the 1988 press release in which Bush a Iowa Campaign suggested Elizabeth Dole was corrupt. When a livid Dole asked Bush if he authorized it vice president straddle said maybe i did and maybe i did no to Bush probably will beat Buchanan As Ford beat Reagan in 1976 and Carter beat Kennedy in 1980. But by Noven Jer Bush May be As bedraggled As Carter was in 1980 lots of people were prepared to vote for Carter but few really wanted to a few Felt any passion. Reagan understood that he would win if he just passed the a presidential threshold test a if he was seen As a plausible alternative to the incumbent for whom few Felt enthusiasm. Hence Reagan a ads stressing his service As governor of the largest state hence his mild Demeanour in the debate. Today both Tsongas and Clinton probably could pass the presidential threshold test with a majority of voters. Bush has lost not Only a substantial minority of republicans he has lost almost All of the minority that matters most the conservatives who comprise the base for any Republican president. Politics is not merely numbers. Intensity matters too and the intense republicans Are conservatives. Some conservatives will grit their Teeth and stick with Bush because they dread having Buchanan defining conservatism. But Many More conservatives May soon believe it is better for their fighting Faith to be in opposition than in Power Bush a Way a in disarray that discredits conservatism. And they Are not Apt to be brought Back into the fold by violent fear of Tsongas or perhaps even of Clinton. The Day Truman became president most americans did not know what he looked like. The Day Tsongas won a primary in a state with fewer people than say metropolitan Charlotte  americans knew his pursed look and the Tang of his personality. Like another Massachusetts politician he May at first seem to have been weaned on a Pickle yet like the sainted Coolidge he has an arid wit and a politicians priceless Knack Eisenhower and Reagan had it too for being underestimated by rivals. But no longer. And those who Prosper As Tsongas has by the acceleration of events that modern Media make possible also can perish by the acceleration. Clinton finished a Strong enough second to say jauntily a see you Down South  he can still Hope a absent any new embarrassment a to be the first sitting governor elected president since for in 1932. Consider some numbers cited by John Pitney of Claremont College since the democrats first convention in 1832, no Democrat has won the White House without carrying a majority of Southern states. Non Southern democratic nominees have lost 62 percent of the time. Southern democrats have won 83 percent. For is the Only no Southern democratic nominee Ever to win More than 51 percent of the popular vote nationally. Clinton can take his a  argument into the Southern states with their Money eating Media markets and millions of Black voters. Democrats speak of a �?o43 percent strategy a 43 being the percentage of the White vote they need in november if their candidate also gets 90 percent of the Black vote and two thirds of the hispanic vote. Clinton has the record and rhetorical cadences to Appeal to Blacks and he can claim to match Tsongas ability to win Back moderate to conservative democrats who have been voting Republican. Finally the self caressing Mario Cuomo May at last have gone too far while going nowhere. Cuomo yesterdays Man who has never quite had a today went to Harvard in new Hampshire a television Range to encourage the write in Campaign on his behalf All the while saying a i  presume to interfere with the Good people of new  he got three percent. He did no to interfere. C Washington Post writers group David s. Brode voters blasted myth of Bush invulnerability after new Hampshire no one can doubt that George Bush must recast his presidency a not just his Campaign but his government a if he is going to win a second term. And after new Hampshire it is equally certain that the democratic party is finally ready for change. Bush could not have made a bigger mistake than to come campaigning on the final weekend before the vote with Hollywood Star Arnold Schwarzenegger. Fantasy Macho does no to substitute for Resolute real world action any More than a military Victory in the persian Gulf makes up for neglect of Domestic needs. The president was undeservedly Lucky that contentious to commentator Patrick Buchanan was his main opponent. Half of Buchanan a voters said in the exit polls that they wished another Choice had been available to them. Had a Republican with a record containing More governmental credentials and without bigoted utterances been on the ballot Bush might Well have been beaten by the very Republican voters who rescued his Candi Dacy Here in the 1988 primary. As it is Buchanan was just Strong enough to Force the president to Campaign in person a and thereby to expose the shallowness of his rhetoric and the thinness of his Domestic program. Those who Are arguing retrospectively that Bush and his surrogates should have attacked Buchanan a record and views More vigorously miss the Point. This election was not about Buchanan it was about Bush. And the fact that half the Republican primary electorate said they disapproved of Bush a handling of his Job a More than voted for Buchanan a suggests just How vulnerable he is at this moment to a democratic challenger. The problem is not the Bush Campaign. The problem is a presidency which refuses to come to grips with what More and More voters recognize As the Challenge facing the United states. The democrats realize the source of Bush a vulnerability and the size of the Opportunity it presents. That is Why they Are rejoicing that six of 10 new Hampshire voters in their primary chose the candidates with the most substantial alternatives to Bush a inadequate policies. Because they had thoughtful programs to offer former senator Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts and Arkansas gov. Bill Clinton the two leaders overcame obstacles that in most years would have doomed their bids. In other years when real world problems were not As weighty Tsongas mumbling platform style and his medical history would have made him the most implausible of presidential contenders. In most years Clinton would have been scuttled by the personal stories that swirled around him in the final three weeks of this primary Campaign. In time these weaknesses May enable Bush to beat either of these men in the general election. But this is no Ordinary year. This year the voters want real answers. Tsongas and Clinton were the two democrats who entered the race with a backlog of experience they had distilled into serious suggestions for ways to change the economic and social dynamic that is dragging America Down. Their proposals Challenge democratic orthodoxy especially the conventional Wisdom of Capitol Hill. More than others in the race they Are prepared to think and talk about a different relationship Between government and the private Economy a Tsongas Strong Point a and about a different non new Deal approach to social problems a Clinton a Forte. The acuity of the new Hampshire voters was their recognition that both these men a and the ideas they bring a belong in the kind of democratic administration that could replace Bush a muscle bound Domestic government. And by Luck or design the new Hampshire democratic electorate Distributee its votes in a fashion guaranteeing that both Tsongas and Clinton will go on to refine their message and test their Campaign skills in other parts of the country. New Hampshire has done its Job. Now Well see if the rest of the country can do As Well. C the Washington Post Wnters group