European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - August 18, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes saturday August 18,1990 Howard Kleinberg Castro s Cuba in t about to come flying apart Miami at a time late last year when sledgehammers were smashing chunks out of the Berlin Wall when throngs rioted in the streets calling for the Over throw of Romania s stalinist government As poles Drew free air for the first time in five decades and As czechs celebrated a new Freedom by electing to their presidency a writer who had just been released from a communist jail there was a feeling that the demise of Fidel Castro was Only a matter of Days away. The Domino theory we were warned about by the late John Foster Dulles was happening but in reverse. In this City which houses a cuban nation in exile the events in Europe even the Short but Bright shining moments last summer in China and the ballot Box Over throw of the sandinista in Nicaragua were fuel to a dream held since 1959 when Castro swooped Down from the mountains to inherit what the fleeing Fulgencio Batista left behind. Florida gov. Bob Martinez of hispanic background but so far Renio cd As to speak with a Southern drawl that belies his roots took immediate advantage of the situation he faces a Tough re election Campaign this year. He formed a 20-rnember commission to look into what preparations Florida and the Federal government should make for the Day when Castro Falls which he saw As imminent. The commission s report issued in june claims that when Fidel is no longer in Power much of Cuba will try  to the United states which is a strange Way to rebuild a Homeland. Much of the thrust of the report dealt with that aspect. After Reading it i was t certain who still would be left in Cuba. The report also repeated what everyone seemed to be saying six months earlier that Castro would be gone at any moment. In More recent weeks a non cuban Miami lawyer who is leaving office As a county commissioner has joined with a cuban exile who is a professor at the University of Miami in what comes off to me As a sucker play a Dollar grab. The two have announced that they Are going to publish a Book in anticipation of Castro s fall in which exiles can list their properties confiscated by Fidel. All you have to do to be listed in the Book is come up with $ 150. The professor anticipating huckster ism criticism says the Book is legitimate but that we re not promising  and Well they should t. Naturally exiles do not need to pay to be in a commercially produced Book of expropriated properties if the time comes Legal documents will establish rightful  importantly despite the anticipation Fidel Cas Tro has not fallen and does t appear As Likely to fall As first was anticipated. What makes the Castro hold on Cuba stronger than Walter Mears n1n a Turtle other dictators holds in Eastern Europe is that Fidel got rid of his enemies. He let them All come to the United states. What remains behind in Cuba Are his supporters and those too frightened to do anything but accept what has happened. Castro has weathered three decades of economic Isola Tion from the United states. He has survived invasion and guerrilla raids he has the capability of stirring his subjects to fever pitch against Yankee imperialism and even the Many in Cuba who know better can to or wont do much about it. The history history of Eastern Europe has shown occasional revolts due to food shortages government abuses Etc. Poland had its bread riots and the Advent of Solidarity. Hungary had its revolt of 1956. Czechoslovakian Rose up in 1968. Certainly All those efforts were crushed under soviet tanks but a statement of dissatisfaction was made nevertheless. No such thing Ever has happened inside Cuba. Instead the professional class and much of the Middle class deserted Cuba for Florida. It is in Florida not Cuba that the revolt against Castro simmers with no where to go. Cuban exiles stand on their soap boxes and spit against the wind. Castro Long ago trained his people to live with deprivation. They grouse but they do Little else. Those who grouse loudest do it by floating off to Miami and relieving Castro of their discontent. More than nine months after the tremors Shook the foundations of both the Berlin Wall and the Iron cur Tain there is no evidence that any such thing is happen ing in Cuba. Commission reports to the governor of Florida and moneymaking schemes playing on exile emotions do not constitute a groundswell of counterrevolutionary activity against Fidel Castro. C new York times v gop lawmakers wary of backing budget plan in the political poker game Over a deficit cutting Deal president Bush has shown most of his hand and the democrats have yet to turn Over a card. That frustrates the White House irks Republican negotiators and makes some gop congressional candidates Down right angry and not just at democrats. Bush moved from never to maybe to of on a tax increase three abrupt Steps in 12 weeks without notice to the Republican candidates who feel at risk. Gop campaigners who had gone to the voters with their own versions of the no new taxes position that served Bush in 1988 suddenly came up Short one major Issue. Even when they d disagreed with him about the acceptability of a tax increase they Felt the Issue had been blurred. That internal Strain was worse for the fact thai the White House made no Effort. To create a Republican consensus for the president s changing position. When he called the budget Summit and said he would negotiate without preconditions dropping the no tax Barrier without Actu ally saying so the word went to congressional leaders of both parties. When he made it explicit saying tax Revenue increases would Hae to be part of a deficit cutting Deal it was by written statement no immediate explanation. And when the administration got specific 10 Days ago outlining a $54 billion deficit reduction plan Replete with taxes one a ceiling on deductions for state and local income taxes it went to gop Summit negotiators with no notice to the rank and tile. In a Way the major advantage of the party in the White House has become a liability. The democrats the congressional party Don t speak with one voice. They have to fashion bargaining positions with a consensus among House Senate and committee leaders. They talked privately about a democratic budget plan to put on the negotiating table but could t come to terms and did t push it. At the same time the administration put together its $54 billion package of spending cuts and tax increases and budget director Richard g. Darman presented it to the Republican bargaining team late in july. They agreed or at least acquiesced. But their consent built no consensus behind the White House plan. And that problem quickly got worse. According to the White House the Republican plan was prepared to be presented simultaneously with a democratic package. There was t any. Besides sen. Bob Packwood r-ore., went Public with the administration plan saying that a provision to limit the Federal deductibility of state income taxes ought to satisfy the democrats who wanted to increase taxes on the Rich. That and a proposal for Steep tax in creases on Beer and wine stirred an immediate backlash especially among governors who saw  a threat to state Revenue sources. The question of who d go first on unpleasant tax and spending Steps and thus take the political onus has been a stick ing Point All along. And the democrats insisted they had not signed off on any Deal to deliver simultaneous budget Cut Ting plans. Rep. Richard a. Gephardt d-mo., the majority Leader said there May have been some miscommunication about what was going to  so it seems. We have been dealing with the democrats in Good Faith Bush told res live congressional republicans on wednesday. We have a plan we Are pre pared to share with them when they pre sent  but it already had been shared with the democrats and everybody else Al though not formally presented to the budget Summit. And Bush s message to the republicans varied depending on who was de scribing it. He said he would veto appropriations Bills exceeding his original budget although he does t have any to veto just now. And that he said he would enforce Sharp automatic cuts in Federal spending potentially about $100 Bil lion Worth unless there is a settlement before oct. 1, when the new budget year begins. But his own aides differed on How Tough a Campaign stance hell take with the democrats on spending and the deficits with intensified budget negotiations due after labor Day. It May not make a lot of difference. Republican candidates have drawn their own lines on the Issue. That s one reason House republicans voted in a july 18 caucus against any new taxes or higher rates on old ones rejecting a Posi Tion Bush had just accepted. They re the ones with re election bids on the line this year and some of them suspect their political interests Are being risked in the administration quest for a 5-year, $500 billion deficit reduction agreement a Deal that would last past the next presidential Campaign. C associated press i i