European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - August 18, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Quagmire this time it s different historians say a american soldiers arriving in saudi Arabia. Operations in the persian Gulf have been sudden and dramatically Large gradual buildup in Vietnam. A contrast to the Symik Feinsilber associated press Addam Hussein s takeover of Kuwait was t 24 hours old when the Senate interrupted its business to deplore it and denounce him. But what was that Echo in the chamber Why did a senator or two refer in a looking Over his shoulder Way to the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution Why did minds turn Back to an August debate 26 years ago in that debate the Senate Over the misgivings of Only two senators reacted to reports that . Navy vessels had been attacked off North Vietnam s coast by authorizing president Lyndon Johnson to prevent further  lbs used that Resolution As the equivalent of a declaration of War the basis on which he sent More than a half million american soldiers to fight an asian War America s longest War the first it lost. Almost by stealth America was sucked into a guerrilla War on the Side of an unpopular government. Johnson hoped each escalation would be enough Only to find that each instead made withdrawal More difficult. And Vietnam deteriorated into a quagmire an inextricable situation. The United states could t win and Toulon t quit. Is the Gulf crisis another quagmire in the making another place where . Forces can t win and can t get out stuck in 100 degree heat unable to do More than wait to react to Saddam Hussein does history offer some guidance Here for the most part historians familiar with the Region and with the ways War develop Are More optimistic than that. They find some similarities to Vietnam. But they draw encouragement from some big differences not the least of which said John Gaddis diplomatic historian at Ohio University in Athens Ohio is that this thing really is a multinational Effort that grows out of a rather shocking provocation and neither was True in  Bernard Lewis a retired Princeton University historian and author of 20 books on the islamic world said Saddam Hussein made a crucial miscalculation last weekend. He sought to turn his invasion of Iraq into a religious crusade instead said Lewis he Only succeeded in isolating himself even in the Arab  if his Man Euver had worked Saddam might have made his Battle into an Arab against the West struggle instead he made it the world against Iraq Lewis said. Saddam called for a jihad a religious War for the Arab masses to Rise up against their leaders. And he did it just As the leaders were assembled in a Summit at Cairo. They were hesitating when he produced this Call to jihad said Lewis. This was a direct Challenge it was an act of  Page 16 the stars and stripes in response the leaders of Egypt Syria saudi Arabia and the other Oil states of the persian Gulf in an extraordinary Rebuff to a fellow Arab decided to Send a military Force to protect saudi Arabia from Saddam in Vietnam by contrast America s allies even in Asia largely limited their support to the sidelines. Only Australia new zealand Thailand and Korea sent sizeable combat contingents. Political scientist Nathan Brown a Mideast specialist at George Washington University in Washington said a quagmire in the persian Gulf May be the Best we can Hope for considering the. Alternatives a humiliating . Withdrawal or a military offensive against the iraqis in Kuwait requiring a scale of warfare that is politically  Brown questions whether the Bush administration thought through its options. What s interesting this time is that this is the first crisis where the great Powers have All been in agreement. Saddam Hussein does / have that ability to play thei i it superpowers against each other. John Gaddis historian Ohio University even if Iraq gains enough control in the Region to restrict Petroleum output and boost the Price i m not sure the repercussions Are serious enough to say our National Security is at stake Brown said. The worst that people Are talking about is a recession Brown said. We be lived through recessions before. That does t really affect our National  Brown recalls the Suez crisis of 1956 when Britain in a break with the United states decided it simply could not permit the canal to fall into Egypt s hands. But that s what happened. Eleven years later in the 1967 Arab Israel War the canal was closed for seven years and nobody  but Lewis views the threat of Saddam controlling the oilfields of Iraq Kuwait and saudi Arabia As Graver than that. You simply can t allow this Man to obtain a stranglehold on the world s supplies he said. George herring a University of Kentucky historian of the Vietnam War said he sees in the persian Gulf one big similarity to Vietnam and one big difference the difference he said is that the american commitment to Vietnam was slow and As concealed As Lyndon Johnson could manage. It grew from a few Hundred . Troops sent to advise the French in the 1950s to More than 200,000 troops engaged in full fledged combat in july 1965. Saturday August 18, 1990 in contrast the persian Gulf operations have been sudden and dramatically Large herring said where Johnson sought to underplay the buildup president Bush broadcasts his determination to commit whatever Force it takes to pry Iraq out of Kuwait. The similarity herring said is in the nature of the beast you Are dealing with. All the Vietnam policy makers have admitted in the last 10 or 15 years that the crucial mistake they made was underestimating the enemy and the enemy s willingness to make huge sacrifices.". If they miss that this time we re in bad shape herring said. They should have seen it in the Iran Iraq War. They missed it in the French War against the  Gaddis said the proper analogy is Korea not Vietnam. Then As now he said there was a Swift Cross Border invasion. Then As now it was met by a multinational  response. Korea became an american quagmire Tod but Gaddis sees a crucially different Factor at play this time. Korea proved difficult to get out of but what kept us there was chinese intervention in november 1950," he said. What s interesting this time is that this is the first crisis where the great Powers have All been in agreement. Saddam Hussein does t have that ability to play the superpowers against each other. It s been a most remarkable thing the unanimity that Bush has been Able to rally behind him Kenneth Oye of the Massachusetts Institute of technology in Cambridge an expert on economic warfare also finds remarkable the degree of compliance Bush has commanded so far in his Call for an International embargo against Iraq. But he questions the staying Power of nations for whom sanctions against Iraq and life without Oil from Iraq and Kuwait will be painful. If Saddam Hussein makes no big moves does t use Poison Gas does t go into Jordan does t stage air raids on the turkish Border if he just sits tight i suspect that International support for sanctions will lose ground Oye says. And if they Are not universally supported they lose their  he notes How president Carter s Grain embargo to punish the soviet Union for its Afghanistan invasion became so unpopular with Farmers that Ronald Reagan used it As an Issue in his Campaign against Carter. Lewis concurs that patience is the key. He says Saddam clearly Hopes the american people and business with their famously Short attention Span ultimately will pressure Bush to bring the boys Home jus is Public opinion ultimately forced the United states to find a face saving formula for leaving Vietnam with the War Union. But this time he thinks it won t work. My guess is that the iraqis will break under the pressure of sanctions before american patience wears out. But that s the key