European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 17, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Magazine earthquake forecasts Italy due for a big one by Steve Taylor Munich Bureau est easy Missouri. The theory used to predict a major i 1 earthquake along the new Madrid fault there is not based on scientific fact an expert said recently. Take note northeastern Italy. The chances of a big one in Italy Are growing another expert said. That one will be caused by the Adriatic plate pushing against the Alps. Aviano a and the army a Southern european task Force at Vicenza Are sitting on top of this plate. Tom Goedicke a former lecture at the University of Maryland in Italy in 1989, said in july that he saw no evidence of a major quake looming in that area. But a Small earthquake in Northern Yugoslavia changed his mind in late october. He thinks the plate underneath that area of Northern Italy is beginning to move and a quake could strike As Early As Well next week. Or 20 years from now. Ever since a new Mexico climatologist predicted the Quot big one Quot for Missouri a of All places a a controversy has surrounded the question of who a right and who a wrong. A the answer depends on with whom you talk. Quot you or i could do no better by flipping a Coin Quot said Robert Uhrhammer about the Missouri earthquake prediction made by Iben Browning a climatologist and a private consultant for business and Industry who lives in Sandia Park . Uhrhammer is a research seismologist at the University of California at Berkeley. Browning predicted a 50 percent Chance of a major temblor on or about dec. 3 this year. In the meantime residents in the area Are growing nervous and stocking food and water. The National guard in three states plans to mobilize 40,000 troops that week. Browning uses a theory called the tidal effect theory. Stress placed on the Earth a crust by the Force of the Sun and Moon especially when they re All lined up can trigger quakes. Goedicke strongly supports that theory but wont go As far As Browning in predicting an actual location or even a particular Date. He does agree however that the potential for an earthquake somewhere is much higher on dec. 3 and dec. 4. Technically called syzygy this Sun Earth Moon alignment can predict Quot windows Quot or periods when the threat of an earthquake is greatest Goedicke said. The window starts three Days before and continues until three Days after a syzygy. The relationship Between the two is surprising. A the san Francisco earthquake of 1989, at 6.9 on the Richter scale struck inside of a window. Two Days later a 6.5 quake occurred in China. A another quake took place in China in april 1990 a this time 6.9 on the Richter scale a just one Day after a syzygy. A in Iran an earthquake of 7.7 magnitude was registered one Day after the syzygy on june 22,1990. A the philippine quake in july measuring 7.7, smashed the islands Only two Days outside of its window. A a current earthquake window began nov. 15 and ends nov. 21. There was an earthquake of 3.5 on nov. 15, 10 Miles North of Charleston . A of 28 earthquakes registering More than 3.5 on the Richter scale Between december 1988 and july 1990,71 percent occurred inside earthquake windows according to Geo Dickey a figures. The remainder came within a few Days. Those facts support the theory Goedicke said. It s a theory that he has supported strongly since studying earthquake activity in Naples Italy in the Early 1980s. But the tidal pull theory As Douglas Schnur Renberger called it is not widely held in the seismology Community. Schnur Renberger a professor of geology at the University of Maryland in Munich said Quot that is not a generally accepted Way to predict  in his opinion there has not yet been a successful Way to accurately predict earthquakes which occur nearly every Day at some level of intensity. While Goedicke s figures May show a connection Schnur Renberger said that no one has yet published data to convince the scientific Community of a Strong positive correlation Between tidal pull and earthquakes. Uhrhammer agreed a the tidal effect theory shows up in the literature about every 20 years. Every time it gets shot  other seismologists have said there is a 50 percent to 60 percent Chance of a 6.3-magnitude earthquake occurring in Missouri by the end of the Century. That a according to the Quot statistical Odds of occurrence Quot Uhrhammer said. Quot but its not an indication that a significant event will happen on a specific  said that on average an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater occurs somewhere in the world every three weeks. The last major earthquake in Missouri was during the Winter of 1811 -12. It caused the Mississippi River to Roll backward Hills and islands to disappear. Forests Sank and lakes formed As the Earth rocked violently. The . Capitol Shook and Church Bells in Boston rang out from the Force of the earthquake which measured an estimated 7.8 to 8.3 on the Richter scale. As a reminder of that potential a 4.6 earthquake Shook parts of five midwestern states this year on sept. 26. But its Northern Italy that Goedicke worries about. He uses three major factors in determining whether the likelihood of an earthquake has increased a the movement of the underlying plates a the friction along the fault a the tidal effect especially along vertical or near vertical faults. For people living in northeastern Italy the earthquake threat results from fractures in the crust and a syzygy putting More stress on those fractures. Goedicke said that the Adriatic plate is still pushing against the Alps and a fracture line runs next to the american air base at Aviano and another near Vicenza Headquarters of the army a Southern european task Force. He is especially concerned because of the alluvial Type of Earth that predominates the area. This Type of ground mostly made up of old River Beds is unstable. Goedicke also questions the stability of some of the buildings in the area. The Way some buildings Are constructed Quot is just asking for a disaster Quot he said. Buildings must be Able to move with the quake. Quot buildings can be in tune Quot to an earthquake he said. Because an earthquake transmits seismic Waves lasting about 3.5 seconds buildings of about 30 stories Are surprisingly More in tune than buildings of 10 to 15 stories he said. Some designs just done to work. Many buildings in Italy which Are constructed out of Cement or Stone Are in that category he said. A one Story Wood Frame bolted firmly to its foundation is the safest he said. No Prophet of doom Goedicke simply wants people to be aware of the potential danger. Whether people take them seriously or not earthquake predictions make interesting stories something Quot a lot of people picked up on Quot Uhrhammer said. But Quot if this Guy Browning is wrong what a the disruption on human life Quot Schnur Renberger asked. But what if he s right saturday november 17, 1990 the stars and stripes a a a Page 13