European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 17, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 a the stars and stripes saturday november 17,1990 columns Ted Koppel Gulf status quo destructive to . Interests it is perhaps time for George Bush and George Mitchell to reacquaint themselves with the writings of another George a a fellow by the name of Orwell the president and senator Mitchell have always seemed Wise and temperate men. But their construction of the circumstances under which Congress might debate and vote on a declaration of War against Iraq seems if not intemperate then certainly unwise and almost orwellian. The president and the Senate majority Leader appear to be saying we Are at an interim phase in which it is hoped the threat or War by itself May be sufficient to achieve iraqis withdrawal from Kuwait debate and the possible declaration of War that might flow from such a debate Are still premature to be deferred until such time As warnings and sanctions have shown themselves to be unsuccessful. It would be fruitless to dwell on just How Short of any additional act of iraqi aggression one determines exactly when the usefulness of non military Means has expired. Let us therefore examine Why a continuation of the status quo without a congressional debate on the usefulness or pointlessness of War is destructive to . Interests. Current . Policy toward Iraq offers Saddam Hussein Little further incentive for responding to anything less than total War. President Bush has on numerous occasions made it Clear that he is prepared to accept nothing less than total compliance with All relevant . Security Council resolutions and that there can be no pre conditions. For Saddam therefore to offer a partial withdrawal from Kuwait or a willingness to negotiate at this time invites rejection and implies weakness. It also undermines his strongest strategy which is to continue playing for time in the Hope the Allied coalition will eventually self destruct. The Prospect of War after All is As corrosive to Western determination As it must be to the iraqi people. But whereas publicly expressed doubt in Iraq is an offence punishable by imprisonment or worse the right to dissent is the very foundation of the Western . Rosenthal tradition. Time therefore May not weaken Western resolve any More rapidly than iraqi determination but it will do so More visibly a and a coalition like any other Chain is Only As Strong As its weakest link. The Paradox of what now appears to be . Strategy rests in the probability that its commitment to use military Force weakens in direct proportion to the time it takes to strengthen that Force. In the time it takes to adequately prepare an in chances that Bush would be hard pressed not to defer the military option. We can expect Over the next couple of months to see the beginnings of Allied Maneu vers exercises feints in the direction of Iraq and Kuwait. Already for example the marines have announced their intention to launch an amphibious assault exercise on a saudi beachhead. Such moves might it is True be sufficient to so unnerve Saddam that he resigns himself to the inevitable. At least such exercises Vasion Force the determination to commit it will have been inversely diminished. Unless the first blow against Saddam is launched so unexpectedly and so massively As to forestall any further delay Saddam can remain confident of being Able to pre empt War at the last moment by the Mere suggestion of flexibility. Let us speculate that the moment comes when Saddam is faced by an ultimatum of War say within 48 hours. Could he not undermine the cohesiveness of the Allied coalition and thereby stave off invasion by the simple expedient of calling soviet president Gorbachev or French president Mitterrand and offering even a partial withdrawal from Kuwait or by offering to negotiate a total withdrawal surely that would be enough to Force such a Public outcry to a give peace one More would Force the iraqis to remain on full Alert and to use up fuel supplies and spare parts that cannot easily be replaced Bush and Mitchell May however have provided Saddam with the reassurance that he will have ample notice of any genuine threat against his forces or territory. The White House rejects the notion that the United states has adopted a War strategy. The implication is that should the administration Ever decide to embark on such a strategy there will be ample Opportunity at that time for Congress to address the matter. Such a commitment however has never been publicly stated. Absent any hostile iraqi action against . And Allied forces the executive Branch of government is bound by the Constitution not to Start a War without a congressional declaration. Mitchell seems satisfied that the president understand and accepts that. He declares self Content that the United states can afford to wait until the last moment the eve of War before Congress addresses whether a declaration of War should be forthcoming surely though such a supercharged atmosphere would be the worst of All Possi ble times for a rational debate. And does the passage of time Between now and that Uncertain moment strengthen or under mine the resolve of americans partners in the Region or is precisely the knowledge that democracies Are disposed to reason that provides Saddam with Access to a lever that can defer War at any time. The offer of any Compromise therefore is the one move he must save until last. We have heard often of the isolation of Saddam Hussein of his unwillingness to listen to views inconsistent with his own we regard that As a weakness and our own system As vastly Superior and indeed we remain free to raise As Many different views As there Are citizens of this country. Our elected representatives however remain in adjournment disinclined to debate the merits and dangers of War. Let us Hope that they and Mitchell first among them rethink the matter. A debate can Only serve the National interest it is possible that Congress might refuse to vote a declaration of War. If that turns out to be so it is better for the president to Bow the fragility of his political support before he commits . Troops to Battle. It is More Likely that Congress would stand behind the president and give him the declaration he seeks. If he had it it would certainly bestow upon him the absolute Freedom to use it but there could no longer be any doubt in Saddam a mind that whatever the president decides he has both the political and the military Means to exercise that decision a Ana More to the Point that he could do so at any time of his choosing. Until that time Saddam can cherish and nourish the spirit of uncertainty thereafter he might learn to fear it. Koppel is editorial manager and Anchor of the Abc new program  this column was written for the Washington pos Bush must Tell real reason for Gulf buildup president Bush made one profound mistake immediately after Iraq conquered Kuwait. Every Day it becomes More important that he Correct it before . Ground forces go into action against Saddam Hussein. Bush failed to state the single most important reason for going to War against Iraq a or even for organizing the worldwide embargo. That is to eliminate Saddam Hussein a Power to cause More death and destruction. Other reasons do not justify the deaths of americans a or placing them in deadly jeopardy. A perhaps Bush himself was reluctant to face it in the beginning. Certainly presidential Candor was not a Happy Prospect for administration officials who designed and pushed the failed disgraced policy of strengthening Saddam Hussein and appeasing him almost up to the hour of invasion. If they really wanted to convince Saddam Hussein of . Determination to oppose him at last the resignation of Secretary of state James a. Baker Iii and some of his top Middle East hands would have been one inexpensive bloodless Way of showing it. Whatever the reason Bush came up with War goals that simply do not satisfy a Large part of the . Public. The Public support needed by the president and every Soldier depends not so much on the length of a War but whether it sits Well in the american stomach. Bush told the country that one goal was to turn Back aggression. Every american intelligent enough to fight is intelligent enough to know that the United states did not feel compelled to go into Battle against other aggressions a China against Tibet the soviet Union against the world of Eastern Europe and Arab against Arab time and again. Why was was this one so important americans were told that another objective was to restore the Royal family of Kuwait. Name one american you know who thinks that is Worth dying for or even facing the possibility of death. Just one. And americans were told that the country could not allow a dictator with a proven taste for Power and blood to stand astride much of the worlds on Supply. That is an economic and political reality. But it is not convincing enough to americans who know that there Are Steps the United states has not yet taken to preserve its Oil Independence. Among them tougher conservation higher Gas taxes real attempts to break the open Cartel with a Western hemisphere consortium benefiting us and our neighbors. So with american men and women facing combat in the desert the . Debates Why they Are there. Bush has done Well preparing the country militarily for the possibility of War but has failed to prepare it politically and spiritually. He has not said the Bone truth left in Power Saddam Hussein will use his missiles and chemical Arsenal in the future As he has in the  if israeli destruction of his nuclear Plant in 1981 had not set him Back a decade or so Iraq would be a nuclear Power today. A does anybody truly believe that when he acquires them Saddam Hussein will not use nuclear weapons As blackmail or never slip a few to some of his terrorist gangs and allies like Libya does anybody truly believe that he would not use nuclear Power As a first resort or certainly a last if he Ever again faces a Strong coalition that threatens his Rule Stop this Man before he can kill millions. That is the Only War goal Worth putting before us soldiers As a reason for risking their fives. And it is the reason that . And Allied air Power should have been used to destroy his arsenals before american armies were shipped abroad. It is the reason that air Power should still be tried before armies Are sent into combat. The country and the president need matters of heart from each other a Trust Confidence and respect. But on the Edge of War Bush wasted his dignity and dwindling time by running around fighting local political Battles. When he decides he must Send More hundreds of thousands of americans into danger he Breaks the news to reporters at the White House instead of telling the parents himself in their living rooms. He talks almost every Day but always gives the Ini pression that he talks to be heard Only by Saddam Hus Sein or the . In the timetable of the Mideast crisis the Date that counts most is when the american president decides to address the american people in fall openness a rectify my the error he made telling them that the reason to confront the Power of Saddam Hussein is to end the Power of Saddam Hussein. A new York times