European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - February 03, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Sunday february 3, 1991 the stars and stripes a. A Pago 19business new Dollar could be headed for new Low the Dollar was hit by a triple whammy late last week and analysts say it May be headed for a historic Low against a number of european currencies As a result. The first blow came thursday when the German Central Bank unexpectedly hiked key discount lending rates by Halla percentage Point a move that should entice More investors to buy Marks and sell the Dollar. But the knockout punches came Friday afternoon. First the . Labor department announced that unemployment Rose to 6.2 percent in Jan a qty from 6.1 per Randy Mcclain cent the month before and that nonfarm payrolls had shrunk by 232,000 positions. Next the . Federal Reserve responding within minutes to the shaky report Cut the nations discount rate from 6.5 percent to. 6 percent the lowest level since August 1989. The discount rate represents the interest the fed charges on Loans to commercial Banks and other financial institutions. A decrease often results in lower costs on Short term Loans for Consumers such As on adjustable rate mortgages and car Loans. A i done to think anyone expected this bad a number a said Petra Ott economist with Citibank in Frankfurt Germany. She said her Bank had actually forecast a slight increase in . Non farm payrolls on the month. The massive Job loss caught her institution of guard. It also caused the Dollar to move sharply lower. Late Friday afternoon in Europe the Dollar was trading at 1.468 Marks a loss of 3 pfennig when compared with the  currency s High for the week. The Dollar also weakened against the British Pound. At midweek one Pound was Selling for just Over $1.96. However with the slew of sorry economic data emanating from the United states on Friday the Pound gained almost 2 cents to Trade at $1,978 on the world Market. Military Exchange rates in Germany and England edged  weekend one Dollar Wal buy 1.44 Marks in Germany while one Pound is Selling for $2.02 at military Bank outlets in England. A a a. A a Ott said she believes the Dollar could lose another 2 pfennig or so against the Mark in Europe As a result of disappointing economic performance in the United states. She sees the 6ottom Tor the Dollar around 1.45 Marks. If that happens the military Exchange rate in Germany will drop to an All time Low of 1.41 Marks after taking into consideration the transaction fee charged by merchants National Bank for changing dollars into Marks. Up to now the lowest military Exchange rate in history was 1.43 Marks last dec. 11. Gunter Teich currency analyst with Bank of America in Frankfurt said the War with Iraq might help the Dollar rebound slightly in the Days ahead but Only if there Are drastic developments in the persian Gulf. A if Turkey or Israel or both become involved in the conflict the Dollar could strengthen a he. Said. A a. A however if the War continues to proceed according to plan there will be Little Impact on Exchange rates Ott said. Ott said there a Good reason for concern about How Long it takes to dislodge Saddam Hussein a forces from Kuwait. A a of the War drags on for quite a Long time the business climate in the states and consumer Confidence will be Hurt. That will aggravate . Economic problems a the Citibank economist said. A the Shorter the War the better it is for everybody a Teich said. Athe stars and stripes bad news can be Good for business of Security by Larry Mcshan Ethe associated press new York a the threat of iraqi terrorism in the United states has brought a business Boom to companies that Supply Security services and equipment company executives say. From International companies like Pinkerton a and Wells Fargo to smaller new York based firms executives report that Saddam Hussein and his Call for terrorist strikes against the unite d states Are Good news in bad economic times. A it s sad in a Way but its certainly been Good for business a said Adrienne Burke of pcs communication control inc., a Manhattan based Security firm. Since War started in the persian Gulf a Little Over two weeks ago burkes company has received an average of 100 Calls per Day from companies interested in bomb detection equipment. Pre War the figure was 10 Calls per month. Pcs which does about $15 million in business per year also is offering free consultation to companies in an Effort to drum up More business. Security Isnit cheap the simplest letter bomb Detector runs about $5,000, Burke said. A a there a such a fear out there. We re getting Calls from Banks department stores major Fortune 500 companies building managers and some transportation companies. A lot of Calls a she said. Pat Gallione owner of Gallione Security services inc. In Manhattan said most of her company a increase in sales has come from existing clients hoping to boost Security. Her company serves clients in new York new Jersey and Florida. A right now everybody a panicking a she said. Business is also jumping for Steven do Andrilli whose new York based guardian group International has a full line of Bullet resistant clothes. Recent customers include . Customs agents dozens of diplomats in new York and several judges. One Middle Eastern Diplomat had his Bullet resistant outfit hand delivered to his embassy last week. Do Andrilli said. Ton of the line bulletproof threads Cost in the neighbourhood of $550. �?o1 Hope the War ends but its creating business for me Quot do Andrilli added. A i did no to create the War i did no to it Cate the terrorist threats. In a just addressing Peoples direct and immediate needs in a rational  Gene Mastrangelo risk assessment manager for bust1-Ness risk International in Washington said some clients Are so concerned about letter bombs they Arentt opening mail on their property he said. Increased Security is obvious at airports but Pinkerton a chairman Thomas w. Wathen said word in the Industry is that Petroleum companies and Utility firms arc also seeking help around the Globe. Pinkerton has seen an increase at its 151 offices nationwide As Well As a boost at its two London offices said Wathen. The company is calling the boost a not significant a although that could change if the War continues. A fortunately or unfortunately whatever adverb you choose the longer the War goes on the More Impact it will have on our business a said Sonia Luna Pinkerton a director of strategic planning in Van Guys Calif. Wathen said that the end of the War wont necessarily mean the end of new business. A a in be hoped for a Short War from a personal standpoint. But from a business standpoint in be told our clients that if the War ends tomorrow the threat of terrorism does no tend a said Wathen. Make that investment now business expert advises by Alan Gersten Dpi business writer new York a although the country has fallen into recession and unemployment is rising financial author Quot Gary l. Klott thinks this is a Good Tipsie to invest. Klott whose Book a the Complete financial guide to the 1990s�?� was recently published feels a investing is for the Long term at least three to five years. You have to look at these times As a bargain.�?�. A markets go up and Down but stocks have performed better than most investments Over the Long term a said Klott a former new York times and United press International business writer. A we always recover from a recession and i go with the consensus that this will be a Short and fairly mild recession that could end during the second Quarter of this year a he said. For example inventories Are a fairly lean Job losses have started to slow and companies have been cautious since 1987,�?� Klott said. Since 1987, businesses have been cutting Back to compete in foreign markets and streamlining operations. A we done to have much farther to go a he said Klott said that . Unemployment now at 6.2 percent is not predicted to go As High As the 10 percent level of the last recession which ended in november �1982. A. In the Long term investors must look at emerging trends like biotechnology health care pharmaceuticals infrastructure the environment Europe and Asia Klott said. During the 1980s, biotechnology firms spent a lot of time and Money on research. A this will pay off in the 1990s,�?� Klott predicts. A a they re working on drugs to cure aids and  there a no guarantee a cure for either disease will be t found in this decade he said but other fundamental changes in american life argue in favor of a Bright future for biotech firms and health care companies. In the 1990s, the number of people Over the age of 85 will increase from 3.3 million to 4.6 million a gain of about 40 percent Klott said. The aging of America Means investment  will grow in pharmaceutical companies that Supply drugs to keep elderly people healthy and alive  of these elderly people also might use Home health care As an alternative to nursing Homes. That Way the elderly a with trained assistance a could stay at Home but still receive appropriate medical care Klott said calling it a a much cheaper alternative to nursing  \ a a a a a another Opportunity can be seized by investing in companies that repair the nations crumbling infrastructure he said. A forty four percent of All Bridges in the country Are in need of repair or replacement a Klott pointed out. A forty percent of All roads need replacing or resurfacing and so do 25 percent of the country a interstate roads.therefore smart investors will look at the engineering and construction companies that have a lot of Public works projects Klott said. Linked with that Are construction and engineering companies that a amp Ftfe Fuff environmental services he said. A some Mutual funds specialize in environmental companies a Klott  Mutual funds to consider arc those that invest in Europe and Asia where the economies Are generally expected to perform better than that of the United states. A Europe will outgrow America in the Long term a Klott  economic unification pegged to begin in 1992, will mean Large competitive struggles initially Klott predicted but some countries will emerge As dominant after they gain in Market share creating investment  Europe is out of the Money now but the crumbling of communism there will eventually pay off for capitalism Klott predicted. A Japan is a Tough Call a Klott said. That country a growth will be slower than before but a never give up on Japan. They Are a highly educated and industrious people and you can to Ever count them  however other Pacific rim countries such As Thailand Malaysia Singapore Taiwan and Indonesia might grow faster than Japan he said