European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - March 19, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 6 the stars and stripes wednesday March 19, 1986 1 million farms will disappear by year 2000, report says stateside Washington a a congressional office said monday that about 1 million farms now in production will disappear by the turn of the Century an attrition rate that was disputed by an agriculture department economist. The office of technology assessment said that . Agriculture is entering a new technological Era at a time when the character of agriculture is changing  if the present trend continues it is Likely that the num Ber of farms will shrink to about 1.25 million in the year 2000 from 2.24 million counted in the government s 1982 agricultural census. The number of Small and part time farms will continue to decline but will still make up about 80 percent of total farms the report said. The Large and very Large farms will increase substantially in number. Approximately 50,000 of these largest farms will account for 75 percent of the agricultural production by the year 2000." the report said moderate sized farms will decline in number and in proportion of total farms and will have a Small share of the Market and a declining share of net farm income. These farms comprise most of the farms that depend on agriculture for the majority of their income the report said. Traditionally the moderate sized farm has been viewed As the Backbone of american agriculture. These farms Are failing in their efforts to compete for their historical share of farm  Alden c. Manchester senior economist in the National economics division of us a s economic research serv ice said he does not think total farm numbers will decline As rapidly Between 1982 and 2000 As the congressional report indicates. Somewhere in the 1990s, i figure it s going to kind of Bottom out Manchester said in an interview. Farm numbers peaked during the depression of the 1930s and have been declining since then in general although there arc occasional blips in the trend sometimes due to changes in the government s counting methods. But it has t been going Down nearly As fast in the 70s and the 80s As it had been doing Back when people were sort of Rushing to leave the farm in the 50s and the 60s,"Manchester said. If the slowdown continues and a Bunch of ifs " Are involved the number of farms will flatten out completely before the turn of the Century he said. One reason Manchester said is the apparent popularity of part time farming by people who have outside income. The number of Small part time farms could decline for the next five to 10 years and then level off he said. Manchester said there also has been a slowdown in the decline of full time commercial farms and that those could become stabilized somewhere in the 90s" at a level no much lower than now. The office of technology assessment report which was released by rep. Cooper Evans a Iowa defined Small farms As those having sales of $20,000 or less a year. In 1982, those farms accounted for 60.6 percent of the nation s 2.24 million farms. Part time farms were in the $20,000 to $99,000 category accounting for 25.9 percent moderate sized farms sold $100,000 to $199,000 a year accounting for 8.1 percent Large farms sold $200,000 to $499,000 a year represent ing 4.2 percent and very Large farms $500,000 and Over 1.2 percent. . Farm population in percent of total . Population 25%f 20 j 15 10 does not include Alaska until 1959 and Hawaii until 1960 1940 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Chicago Tribune graphic source . Bureau of the census by the year 2000, the report said the most Likely projection shows that of the 1.25 million total farms Small and part time farms will account for about 1 million units or about 80 percent of the total compared with about 1.94 million or 86.5 percent for the combined categories in1982. Moderate sized farms in 2000 were projected at 75,000 units or 6 percent of the total compared with 180,700 units and 8.1 percent of the 1982 total. Large and very Large farms together were projected at 175,000 units rep resenting 14 percent of the turn of the Century total com pared with 121,700 farms in 1982, which were 5.4 percent of the total. The largest farms Are expected to adopt the greatest amount of new technologies the report said. And the farm of the future will be treated financially like any other business it will have to demonstrate profitability before Bank will finance its  Federal policy should be concentrated on creating a stable economic environment for agriculture and on help ing the moderate sized farms the report said. With few exceptions Small farms Are not viable economic entities in the mainstream of commercial agriculture nor can thebe made  the report concluded that Large scale Farmers do not need government subsidies to compete and survive. Philadelphia orchestra declines invitation to perform in .s.r. Philadelphia a the Philadelphia orches tra citing scheduling conflicts has declined the soviet Union s first invitation in seven years to a major . Orchestra to perform in that country. Orchestra officials said they had notified go Sconzert the soviet arts Agency that the group would not be Able to travel to Moscow and Leningrad for four concerts in May. We Are disappointed. We invested an awful lot of work in this said Stephen sell orchestra executive director. But we were unable to accept  Mother finds three children sues adoption Agency for 4th los Angeles up a woman claiming she was never informed that her four children were placed for adoption after they were kidnapped 26 years ago has filed a $104 million fraud suit against Florida and a private adoption service. Celeste Griffing 53, finally Learned of her children s Fate in 1984 with the help of a television news producer and has been reunited with three of the four. A daughter Adrienne now 27, is still missing and Griffing said she filed the Federal court suit mainly to Force the children s Home society of Miami to open its files and Tell her who adopted the fourth child. Eleven tons of bagels spill close Highway for two hours Painesville Ohio a a truck carrying 23,000 pounds of bagels overturned and split open when it was hit by three other trucks in an Accident that injured one Driver police said. The Accident forced the closing of interstate 90 East of Cleveland for two hours while Snow lows cleared the bagels off the Road. It was raining fairly heavily. I would step on one and Start to slide. Some were still in packages some were in boxes and some were strewn out separately two or three High said Highway patrol sgt. William Costas who was the first officer on the scene. Costas said the Driver of the truck Marlin Denlinger 39, of Rose Creek minn., overturned his Rig after it edged off the Highway and he tried to swerve Back on. Train s bad brakes Start fire racing along 5 Miles of track Kenner la. A Sparks from faulty Boxcar brakes touched off a 5-mile-Long fire along a Railroad right of Way fire officials say. It was the longest fire we Ever fought though not our biggest said Mike Zito Kenner fire department spokesman. Capt. Gerry Foti and other firefighters discovered the Blaze sunday afternoon officials said. Zito said the fire raced through weeds Between eastbound and westbound tracks to the Illinois Central Gulf Railroad Yard where the train was halted. He said firefighters had to rely on 500-gallon tanks carried by pumper trucks because there were no hydrants in the area. Gop denies first lady has convention site role Washington a Republican officials having asked 11 cities to meet specifications for the 1988 gop Conven Tion Are trying to end speculation that an unwritten Standard is the approval of Nancy Reagan. Terry Wade communications director of the Republican National committee called reporters monday to say that inc chair Man Frank j. Fahrenkopf or. Had talked to the first lady and she said she did not have a  i just know mrs. Reagan has t Given any thought to the convention and will go along with the decision of the committee said Elaine Crispin the first lady s press Secretary. Crispin said that for about a month now we be been Reading these Little  those trickles Are the continuing speculation that mrs. Reagan would like the 1988 convention held in los Angeles the City the reagans consider Home. Fahrenkopf tried to Dampen that speculation last thursday when he held a news con Ference to announce that specifications for the convention had been mailed to 11 cities that had expressed interest in being the site. In addition to los Angeles the Candi dates Are Atlanta Detroit Houston Kan Sas City mo., Las vegas Miami Phila Delphia san Diego Seattle and St. Louis. There has been a great Deal of speculation that this committee has already made up its mind said the chairman. It s not  Fahrenkopf said he had been assured that president Reagan has no preference. Did that Assurance come from the presi Dent himself no said the chairman it came from White House chief of staff Donald Regan. What about mrs. Reagan was the next question. I Haven t talked to the first lady Fahrenkopf replied. Wade said monday that the chairman was concerned that the Way he answered the question put it up in the  Fahrenkopf talked to the first lady the next Day and was anxious to get word out that she had no interest in where the convention is held. He wanted to put it to rest Wade said. The process of screening bids for the convention is in the hands of the party s site selection committee made up of eight members of the inc and Fahrenkopf. The panel had its first formal meeting before Fahrenkopf news conference thursday. Ebbie Spivey chairman of the Mississippi Republican party and a member of the selection committee said someone had a copy of the morning paper i Don t even know which paper it was. At any rate there was a Small paragraph in there saying the site committee of the Republican National committee is meeting this morning. The republicans have decided to go to los an Geles and it is known that the democrats Are going to  Spivey added we had not even begun our meeting. I can see where the chairman would be concerned. We All thought it was a Hoot. We had not made that decision atall not one of  i really Don t believe the president is going to get involved said Carl j. Gillis or. Of Adri an ga., another member of the selection panel. Because if he was going to do something and  going to Hurt your feel Ings he d do it now rather than wait until we go and visit with All these  Spivey said my feeling is if the president decided he thought California would be a Good place most of us Are very proud of president Reagan if that s what he chooses that would be Fine with us. However he has made it very Clear he Lias no intention of making that decision for  the democrats Are at about the same Point in their selection process As the republicans. Both parties expect to receive the recommendations of their selection committees by the end of this year