European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 23, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 a the stars and stripes Friday november 23,1990 columns Tom Wicker Bush must recover from disastrous autumn president Bush a eight Day trip abroad was not Elan cd so far As is known As an escape from the Trou Les that suddenly plague him at Home. But he could hardly be blamed it he a enjoying a week of Freedom from the nightly news and the daily headlines. First it was the budget fiasco and the perception of the president As unable either to make up his mind or bring his party along in whatever direction he was going. This after his Campaign pledge never never to raise taxes earned him a Steep drop in the polls and the 1990 Doublespeak award from the National Council of teachers of English. Worse Bush managed to do for the democrats what they had been unable to do for themselves. Virtually single hand edly he created the so called a fairness issues by his stubborn resistance to higher taxes on affluent americans while doing his Best to get some of them a capital gains tax break. The president then took to the Campaign Trail where he and the nation discovered that a number of Republican office seekers no longer wanted his help or even his presence. Worse on election Day the returns suggested that his influence on the voters a even in Texas one of his Home states a was smaller than his hat size. Almost As soon As the election was Over the Bubble of support he had won for mobilizing the persian Gulf coalition burst into a storm of criticism. His decision to Send More troops to provide an a offensive capacity which could have earned him another Doublespeak award since he had said originally that . Forces were a purely defensive woke Congress and the democrats and even some republicans to the Prospect of an unwanted War. Congress was particularly exercised because Bush and his Secretary of state James a. Baker Iii did some fast footwork around the question of a a consulting its members. Would they even do the constitutional thing and ask Congress to declare the War if they decided to Start it Bush responded by asking critics to tone it Down lest the country appear to be As divided As it actually is. Then on. The eve of his departure for Points East Bush had to confess that he was a concerned that we re in a downturn economically a though he hastened to add in one of those Catchy phrases for which he is renowned that he was a not a gloom and doom  but a president who wants to be re elected would rather be concerned about almost anything other than recession. All in All its been a disastrous autumn for a president who sailed through the summer with an approval rating above 70 percent. Its hard to remember a president who suffered such Flora Lewis it an abrupt fall from such High standing and that it happened to George Bush raises hard questions about him and his presidency. Most immediately will his decline be lasting clearly it does no to have to be Bush is Only at the Halfway Point of his term and has plenty of time and Opportunity to move up again in Public appreciation. And if he a right that real or threatened recession wont last More than six months a not everyone shares that View a the Economy could be in Good shape again by 1992. F 6 on the other hand most of Bush a political wounds were self inflicted witness the budget debacle and the abrupt escalation of defense into offence in the Middle East. Such perceived ineptitude has led to speculation in both parties and on Capitol Hill that Bush a political skills have deserted him or never really existed that his election was mostly the work of Clever handlers that his popularity derived from having had to make few Tough decisions and that an uninspired staff particularly its abrasive chief John Sununu serves him poorly. A suddenly floundering president moreover does not inspire the respect even fear that usually is a major weapon in the White House Arsenal. This could have fatal effect in Congress where Bush seems to have Only halfhearted backing even among republicans and its Likely to bring democratic presidential candidates out of the Woodwork and into Iowa and new Hampshire. The most serious question however is about the Core of belief on which a president or anyone usually can rely for guidance when issues Are Complex and difficult. This presidents waffling on the budget his inability to explain his intentions in the Middle East his managerial approach to an office that demands persuasiveness and vision a what these May Tell us about George Bush a personal Center is not reassuring. C new York time soviets now need to sort out their troubles Paris a the original purpose of the 1975 Helsinki conference was to substitute for a world War ii German peace treaty impossible to sign because of two Germany. So the soviets settled for a document guaranteeing the postwar Borders and in effect recognizing two German states. The United states Wasny to particularly interested but its european allies led the Way insisting As a Trade off from the soviets that the accords include a a third baskets pledging human rights. The agreements of the conference on Security and cooperation in Europe were written Olf As a sellout by the american right since the pledges did no to even provide lip service for democracy. That was a serious misjudgment. The emphasis on human rights further advanced by president Carters policies made a big difference. But the critics were proved right in their argument that communism could not Reform. They just failed to see that attempts at Reform would Lead it to self destruct. When another Summit meeting this year was agreed upon the Point was for All of Europe plus the United states and Canada to endorse a German settlement. But now Germany is off the Agenda re stored to full and single sovereignty. Instead of bothering with the a German question a members of nato and the moribund Warsaw pact signed a declaration renouncing the threat or use of Force against each other and proclaiming a the Security of each in Dissociable tied to the Security of  a French to station ran film of the Heads of government arriving and shaking hands in comic speedup a reflection of the Way history had suddenly accelerated. A a it a the Congress of Vienna without the dancing a said one Delegate. But unlike the conservative conclave of monarchs establishing the euro Pean Power balance in 1815, after the Napoleonic wars this treaty enshrines the concept of military restraint. The new Power balance is expressed through economic might. So the Csc Issue has turned out to be the problem of finding a place for the  president Mikhail Gorbachev has proposed changing his county a a name to Union of Sovereign republics in his Effort to hold the .s.r together a so they can still be called a Sov a but they wont even be soviet let alone socialist. It is a huge problem and he has a lot More sympathy on it from his fellow government leaders Here than from his compatriots. One of the Side events was the expulsion of foreign ministers from the three Baltic republics after the soviets objected. They had been invited As guests by the French but nobody wanted to Embarrass Gorbachev. The Eastern europeans All face a period of great difficulty and fragility As they try to recover from two generations of communist mismanagement and Spolian but their place in the new Europe will be secure. Nobody knows How to accommodate whatever comes out of the .s.r., if it emerges or what to make of Russia. It does no to fit in the european context but it is not an Ocean away like the United states. The new soviet threat palpable to europeans is disintegration leading to violence. Moscow a former allies Are bluntly told not to seek Protection from say slur it Nighbor by trying to join nato. Manfred Worner natos Secretary general said plainly a we done to want to create additional problems for the soviets and for  Ujj log so cold War ended without a fight in Europe although there were proxy wars outside. But for All the Fine new words of Amity the state scene has not been settled. The dangers if the Sovi jets cannot manage their transformation reasonably smoothly Are serious not Only because of their still huge Arsenal but be a cause 15, probably Many More new quark reling countries on the map could under a mine International order. The other key issues in Paris at the edges of the Csc Are examples of crises that could be expected to pro lifer a ate. They Are the persian Gulf and the Uruguay round Trade negotiations which if they were to break Down threaten to reverse the great expansion of Prosperity since world War ii. Marx preached that the capitalist state system was driven to wars by its search fori economic privilege and would collapse Asl a result. It turned out that economic co operation brought capitalist states Tol flourish and communism collapsed but it takes a state system to provide the base for cooperation. There is tremendous Promise for Thel world in a Europe that with american help has overcome its internecine wars. It wont be fulfilled until the soviets sort out their end of Empire. C new York times