European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - June 30, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Sunday june 30, 1991. The stars and stripes a Page 13 commentary Leonard silk sub Par economic recovery on the horizon is the recession Over has the recovery begun at least to the nations most influential economic Prophet Alan Greenspan chairman of the Federal Reserve Board these Are not two sides of the same question but two separate questions. A a a a a a. During his recent congressional testimony Greenspan answered the first question by saying that although the data might be revised up or Down a a it a very difficult to get around the data of the last several weeks which Are strongly suggestive that the Bottom is somewhere in the second  since the second Quarter is now ending even with minimal Greenspan an and Koskinian hedging the recession is officially Over. But on the second question of whether the recovery has begun Greenspan said a we done to yet see any measurable upward  to non economists especially workers still looking for jobs or businesses hoping to escape failure an Economy that has not started to recover is still in recession. But the governments caution on the recovery is consistent with the consensus forecast of private economists that the recovery will be weaker than most recoveries. The economists seem to have a principle similar to sir Isaac newtons third Law of motion a action and reaction Are equal and  hence most expect the soft Landing of 1989-90 to be followed by the soft recon cry of 1991-92. Neal m. Soss managing director and chief economist of the first Boston corp., said in Tokyo earlier this month a although a dispute within the. Fed Over Short run monetary policy tactics attracted much notoriety this Spring i think there was always a Strong consensus at the fed on strategy for the Economy the same people at the fed who implemented the soft Landing in 1989 and 1990 Are now intent on delivering a soft Takeoff in 1991 and 1992.�?� the feds slowness to ease in the last few months he said is intended to avoid giving the Economy too vigorous a recovery lest it regenerate inflation. A the fed does no to want to give the Economy any More boost than is absolutely necessary to Clear the treetops a he said. In his congressional testimony Greenspan seemed to reinforce this saying he was a confident that we can come out of this with a recovery without re igniting inflationary forces which inevitably within a reasonably Short period create the next  Tucker but Many economists Sec other reasons than fed policy for expecting a sub Par recovery. Greg a. Smith of Prudential securities summarizes the Case for a slower than usual recovery As involving tax increases from state and local governments Little or no stimulus from the Federal governments fiscal policies a slower rate of increase in exports and a consumer lacking a the wherewithal to mount a sustained important increase in consumer  some economists even expect the Economy after a Short spurt of growth to relapse into recession in what is being called a a double dip or a a a shaped pattern. Adolphe Warner economic consultant to the Deutsche Bank said he double dip forecast is gaining ground. Their feared Model is what happened in 1980-83, when the Economy slumped recovered slumped and recovered again in a perfect w. A former fed economist Roger Kuba Rych who is now with Henry Kaufman amp co., said the two recessions of that period should be regarded As one a engineered by the fed to wrench inflation out of the  but Kubarych docs not think the present and the 1980-83 period arc comparable. A we done to have the inflation now a he said. He does however expect a slug. Gish recovery and he secs the possibility that the Economy will move ahead in fits and starts hampered by the inability of the financial system to support a More vigorous recovery. Although the recession appears to be generally Over some industries a including housing banking savings and Loans insurance publishing retailing the airlines and computers a Are still plagued by structural problems or hampered by weaknesses in other sectors. The Economy is like a vast network or matrix. Troubles in one Industry cause troubles in others the computer Industry depends on Banks insurance retailing and the airlines. Publishing hard hit by a falloff in advertising depends on financial services retailing airlines and computers. The recovery now getting under Way must still overcome such structural resistance. But there appears to be Little reason to expect an inflationary upsurge or tightening of fed policy that would cause the recovery to collapse. Financial strains Are Likely to make the expansion slower than usual. But barring a worsening credit squeeze unlikely with an election year ahead the recovery after an 11-month recession appears destined to follow through a like nearly All the cyclical recoveries before it. C now York times nows Sorvick economic Reform Cornerstone of new s. Africa while apartheid Dies quickly in South Africa its insidious legacy lives on. There can be no a new South Africa without redistribution of resources. How else can Black citizens recover from the centuries of loss in America discussion of affirmative action has become distorted and tainted marred by accusations of a reverse racism a bogged Down in divisive debate dismissed As the a politics of envy a picked up As a Call to arms by conservatives. In fact it is a rather simple premise because Blacks and certain other non european ethnic minority groups have suffered from decades to centuries of Gross discrimination that stymied their economic growth simply removing racist barriers now does not do enough. Blacks and Browns will always remain behind because they started so much further Back. Citizens of color then must be Given an economic boost. Perhaps americans can see the simple Justice of the proposition of affirmative action if they look at South Africa. Black nations and ethnic groups were conquered first by the dutch later by the British. The wars and pogroms led to the deaths of thousands of Blacks. The massive disruption and dislocation that followed led to the destruction of their economic base in agriculture and cattle. But the bitter tactics of racist oppression did not end there. Many Blacks tried to adjust to the new dispensation buying agricultural lands and starting up again the farm life upon which their ancestors had relied. But it did not last. With British complicity resentful afrikaners instituted a system whereby Many Rural Blacks became virtually indentured to White Farmers. When the afrikaner dominated nationalist party enshrined apartheid in Law in 1948, its Legal apparatus created even More perverse methods of oppression. It made Black land ownership illegal throughout most of the country. It forced hundreds of thousands of Blacks from Homes and businesses they had built and resettled them into Bleak unproductive terrain far from the cities where they had had jobs. Those Blacks who were Able to get jobs in factories and mines were paid less far less by Law. Now the pillars of apartheid have crumbled. But Many Black South africans remain far too poor to buy the land now available to them too undereducated by a miserably inferior school system to get Good paying jobs too sick from wretched living conditions to compete in the Economy. When Pretoria completes its release of political prisoners it will be time for Washington to consider lifting sanctions. In order for Black South africans to gain a measure of economic Justice South africans Economy must expand. Whites will be less fearful of granting Blacks a larger chunk of the economic pie if the pie is getting bigger. But Washington must not turn its Back on Pretoria once sanctions Are listed. President i a. De Klerk and the nations other moderate leaders must be pressured toward substantial economic reforms including dramatically increased spending on Black health housing and education. Without economic Reform there will be nothing new about South Africa. C me  tinos nes service