European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - February 9, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Campaigns Roll on the eve of Oscar nominations by Kenneth turan los Angeles times if you listen carefully you can hear it building bit by bit Day by Day. Yes things Are relatively quiet now but soon the fuss will be considerable. Because feb. 19, at some ungodly hour of the morning stateside the better to accommodate the eager minions of the worlds pres the nominees for the 1991 Academy awards will be soberly announced. Leading to that Day a massive publicity apparatus has been at work trying to persuade the members of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences to cast their ballot this Way or that among the 238 eligible films. Civilians May talk about what ought to win an Oscar but those closer to the inside like High stakes gamblers everywhere Are concerned chiefly with figuring out who will end up with the brass ring not who deserves it. It is in that spirit and after an informal poll of faithful Oscar watchers that the following predictions arc modestly offered. Best picture sure to be nominated Are three pictures the Prince of tides bugs and the silence of the lambs. With its Glossy mainstream romanticism tides is the most Academy Friendly picture around and most observers consider it the Early favorite to win the Oscar. Bugs albeit somewhat colder in tone has Many of the same qualities. Lambs though its violence would ordinarily make it suspect has enough adherents to at least make the final five. With strengths across the Board these three films should also be the leaders in total nominations. The last two slots Are More problematical. There is a great Deal of sentiment for Beauty and the beast but it face s several hurdles including the fact that the Academy has never Ever nominated an animated feature. Also no one knows How much resistance actors who form a major voting Block will have toward a film that does very Well without them and there is also chafing at the perception that Disney is trying to stuff the film Down the Academy a Throat. Still beautify delivers so handsomely on so Many traditional Hollywood Virtues that in a weak year it is a Good bet to make the Grade. The Fisher King is a possibility for the fifth Slot As Are grand Canyon and both Thelma amp Louise and Juk though the tinge of controversy that surrounded both will Hurt More than help. More Likely though in some senses a Long shot is Boyz n the Hood. This is a picture very much in the traditional Academy Mold in the Way that Spike Leeds movies for instance never rebut it is hampered by having been released so Early in the year. Best director following the Best picture pattern barbra Streisand Barry Levinson and Jonathan Orion he term 20th Cantu by Fob 20�i Cantty Fob Bristor fic Turaj Oscar hopefuls clockwise from top left Anthony Hopkins Bette Midler Mercedes Kueht Danny Glover. Do Mac should be nominated for tides bugs and lambs though the Academy a past indifference to Streisand makes her More of a question Mark than she deserves to be. The final two slots could go any number of ways. Oliver Stone Juk and Terry Gilliam the Fisher King Are seen to have stronger shots As directors than their films do and though Cape fear is definitely not the Academy a cup of Tea a director of Martin Scorsese a ability can never be counted out within his own Branch. If Boyz n the Hood gets a nomination and possibly even if it does no to John singletons name will come up. Best actor once again the same three names occur Nick Nolc for tides Warren Beatty for bugs and Anthony Hopkins for his lip smacking chores in the silence of the lambs. Because Robin Williams is an actor the Academy seems fond of two nominations Over the past four Yea she should get picked for Fisher King but not Hook whose nominations will be almost exclusively in the visual categories. The last Slot once again is wide open. Danny Glover is possible for grand Canyon As is William Hurt for the doctor though that film May have faded from voters memories. River Phoenix was very Strong in my own private Idaho but its not Clear whether enough voters saw the film. And Robert de Niro though his work in Cape fear had the Quality of reprise can to be dismissed either. Best actress once you get past Jodie Foster for silence of the lambs and both acc a Davis and Susan Sarandon for Thelma amp Louise this category appears to be the most amorphous of the lot with voters Likely to go with familiar names and faces in the absence of any other guidelines. A in this spirit and because the film probably appealed to Academy types More than the general Public Bette Midler who was in fact Fine once the Latex was removed should get nominated for for the boys and even Michelle Pfeiffer has a Chance for Frankie amp Johnny. Laura Dern in rambling Rose and Mary Stuart Masterson a excellent work in Fried Green tomatoes depend for their chances on How Many members saw their films. Best supporting actress Mercedes Ruchla As Jeff Bridges Long suffering partner in Fisher King Juliette Lewis As the abused innocent in Cape fear and Kate Nelligan As the Mother from hell in Prince of tides head everyone a list of nominees. Because the studio has placed Fried Green tomatoes Jessica Tandy in the supporting category a nomination for her seems Likely. Rounding out the group could very Well be Maggie Smith Well liked five nominations so far and truly Luminous in Hook. Best supporting actor the richest selection in any of the categories with so Many potential names that picking them blindfolded out of a hat seems As Good a Way As any of determining the nominees. Surest selection looks like canny Veteran Jack Palance twice nominated but never a Winner who stole City slickers right out from under his no doubt better paid co stars. Right behind him should be the not quite As amusing Alan Rickman whose sheriff of Nottingham was easily the Best thing about Robin Hood. Also promising Are Robert Duvall a much put upon father in rambling Rose and Ned Beatty a Cameo in hear my song. Best original screenplay the writers Branch of the Academy is traditionally the most adventurous opting for choices that would give the rest of the membership a coronary. This year the surest nominees include James Toback for bugs and Cal lie Khouri for Thelma amp Louise. Best adapted screenplay after you get past silence of the lambs its anybody a guess. February 9, 1992 sunday a Page 9