European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 27, 1994, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Now that elections Are Over the race is on for president Cypet Rbrown scrip Showard he Campaign for the 1996 Republican presidential nomination has been quietly under Way for a year but now it will be come visible. The size of the gop gain and demo cratic loss in this month s elections raises the possibility that president Clinton will face a primary Chal Lenge.  A. Sen. Arlen Specter  the longest of gop Long shots has made his candidacy Public. Over the coming months he will be followed by six to 10 others. ,. Toil Are going to see a few presidential campaigns open in the next 60 to 90 Days predicted Bill Lacy who ran sen. Robert Dole s 1988 Campaign. Campaigns Are going to Start their fund raising Start lining up the  there Are three tiers of gop candidates one consists of the Best known candidates and includes Dole former housing Secretary Jack Kemp and former vice president Dan Quayle. A second has sen. Phil Gramm of Texas former education Secretary and Tennessee gov. Lamar Al expander former defense Secretary Dick Cheney and California gov. Pete Wilson. A third tier includes Specter Massachusetts gov. William Weld and former Secretary of state James Baker. Looming Over the Field is retired Gen. Colin pow Ell former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. He is being urged to run by some even though its not Clear which political party he belongs to. Dole Kemp and Quayle Are the Best known right now but that May be deceiving. At this Point in the 1992 presidential Campaign Clinton was an asterisk when democratic voters were asked their Choice of candidates. Each of the three has major vulnerabilities. Dole who would be 73 in 1996, is considered by some too old and perceived As too harshly partisan because of his role As de Facto party spokesman Over the last two years. During presidential runs in 1980 and 1988, Dole had a penchant for losing his Cool under pressure. Kemp was at one time the Darling of party conservatives who have great Sway in the nomination process. But he has dropped from their favor and taken on the gop mainstream on Many issues such As the California initiative to ban social services for illegal immigrants which most republicans supported. "., / Quayle whether fairly or not is seen by the Public As not up to being president according to a variety of surveys. Many gop insiders believe the eventual nominee is More Likely to come from the second tier whose members Lack widespread name recognition but so far have been working the hardest in the Early Pri Mary states. Party leaders in Iowa and new Hampshire which open the Delegate selection process cite Gramm and Alexander As being the most Active in putting together organizations. The primary Calendar has been modified from past years to move several big state primaries into the Early part of the process. California and new York among others will vote in March and require candidates to have table stakes of $25 million in order to be viable. Dole Gramm and Wilson would be Best Able to raise the big Bucks. Fund raising will be More important than in the past because the process is More front loaded Lacy said. You Are looking at a situation where you have to have in the Bank going into Iowa and new Hamp Shire not Only the Money to wage campaigns there but to cover you for a Large part of the rest of the  a. Although no sitting president has failed to win re nomination when he sought it Only one democratic president has not had a primary Challenge since world War ii and that was Lyndon Johnson in 1964, who had just taken Over from the assassinated John Kennedy. Clinton s perceived weakness will almost certainly invite talk of a primary Challenge. Democratic Lead ers aligned with the president say they expect a Chal Lenge from the party s left Wing perhaps from the Rev. Jesse Jackson or. Former California gov. Jerry Brown. But they play Down speculation that a More prominent Democrat perhaps one less Liberal would take on Clinton. History says there will be a primary Challenge said Jim Brady vice chairman of the democratic National committee and the party s chairman in Louisiana. I Don t believe that anyone can seriously Challenge Bill Clinton for the democratic Nomi  Clarence Page it on Tab Batocal. Political Gap Between promises and policy Andy Rodney right after the election is the hardest Tim for candidates if they won that is. I they lost they re Home free. The win ners have to assess their Campaign promises and figure out the most Grace Ful Way of not fulfilling them. Right now the winners Are All looking at the cold hard facts of the offices they re about to take Over and they re wondering How in the world they can possibly do what they promised they would. In new York state a relative unknown named George Pataki Defeated the nationally known Gover nor Mario Cuomo. Pataki had campaigned on the Promise of big tax cuts. A few Days after the election he said that his first order of business would be see ing to it that the death penalty was made Law in the state. That s what i Call putting last things first. A few Days after that pronouncement one new York newspaper s headline was Pataki voices Shock at learning size of Gap in Bud get. Well of course you were shocked George. You should have known you would be. What you re really doing now is copping out. You re saying i m still going to try my Best to Cut taxes but it s going to be a lot harder than i thought and it s All Mario Cuomo s fault if i can  As a resident of Connecticut who pays new York state taxes i suffer taxation without representation and i m on Pataki s Side when it comes to reducing taxes. To Tell you the truth i d rather you concentrated on the taxes and put the electric chair on you la Pardon the expression the Back Burner. Down in Washington congressman Newt Gingrich the Man who s going to be the new speaker of the House of representatives is finding it s hard being a Winner too. He s in the limelight now and reporters Are writing stories about How he mercilessly left his cancer Ridden wife for a younger woman a few years ago. This is the kind of stuff a political Winner has to expect. It gets worse after he or she is in office than it was during the Campaign. It s enough to make candidates Hope they lose. Losers slide off the screen into anonymity and no one Ever asks about their private lives or even cares whether they re having one. Congressman Gingrich also suggested we ought to give priority to building a lot of big new orphanages to House the children of welfare families. He s taking a lot of heat about that and even Bob Dole is distancing himself from that idea. Americans never get Over being optimistic about the people they vote for. They continue to believe candidates Are serious when they Promise some thing. It s ridiculous but that s what they think. Most politicians have a Low opinion of voters. The people who get a politician s attention Are those with a lot of Money or Power who want something from him. Those people Are smart about what a politician docs or does t do. Those Are the people the Candi Date has to pay attention to now. That s Why it s so Tough on those recent candidates who Are now elected to office. They have to pay off and that s hard. Tribune Media services Andy Rooney la a former Start and stripes reporter. November 27,1994 sunday Page 9