European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - August 4, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes Anthony Lewis Dukakis tries to turn muted soviet threat his Way new York by the Ordinary logic of politics foreign policy should help George Bush in this election Campaign. The United states is at peace the perception of soviet menace diminished the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in Retreat. When threats abroad sub Side those in Power expect to Benefit politically. But other factors Are at work in 1988. They May neutralize the vice president s seeming advantage or even give Michael Dukakis a net plus. Consider the area of foreign affairs that for Man years has been the most worrying to americans the relationship with the soviet Union. Republicans will argue that president Reagan has made the russians More reasonable by building up american military strength and using it More freely and that Bush will continue the policy of  to what extent the Reagan military buildup has influenced soviet policy is a complicated and debatable question. In any event the crucial Force for change was undoubtedly the accession to Power of Mikhail Gorbachev. Reagan has signed the inf treaty with Gorbachev and established a constructive relationship with him. Truculent anti soviet rhetoric has disappeared fro the White House. In significant ways that All helps gov. Dukakis. Tension with the soviet Union always tends to Benefit the conservative Side in american poli tics. Bill Pascoe of the right Wing heritage foundation speaking recently with Fred Kaplan of the bos ton Globe put it to the extent that the american electorate sees the soviets As a threat they vote for  the new Ronald Reagan eager for peaceful relations with the soviet Union has robbed conserva Tives of their favorite Issue. Such figures of the rights Jeane Kirkpatrick make their frustration Plain. But Public opinion is overwhelmingly favourable to the new Reagan policy and will remain so except inthe unlikely event of a soviet provocation before november. Dukakis Well appreciates How he stands to gain fro the muting of the soviet Issue. One of the shrewd strokes in his acceptance speech was his Praise for Reagan not once but twice on relations with the soviet Union. He is not going to let any space open up Between the president and himself on those issues if he can help it. A second Factor working for Dukakis is the change in Public attitudes toward military  show what politicians have known for some time americans agreed with candidate Reagan in 1980 that we needed to spend More on defense but they no think it is time to trim the expanding Pentagon budget. More and More people believe that the real threat to this country s future Security is economic. Felix Rohatyn expresses a general fear when he says America is Carl Rowan s pit Emma. A first rate military Power and a second rate economic  that concern plays to what Dukakis considers his Issue the need As he put it last week to rekindle the american spirit of invention and  the devel Oping scandal in defense procurement also plays to one of his political strengths his reputation for rectitude. Iran s decision to accept a cease fire in the War with Iraq could be helpful to vice president Bush. The Rea Gan intervention in the persian Gulf May have added a bit to the pressure on Iran and americans for Good reason do not like the Khomeini regime. If the hos tages in Lebanon Are released before election Day that could give a real boost to Bush. But there is a danger for Bush in Iran. It reminds people of the most ignominious episode of the Reagan years the attempt to Trade arms for hostages and of the vice president s refusal to discuss his part in it. Dukakis can be expected to be unrelenting about it. There was steel in his voice when he said that in a Dukakis administration if you sell arms to the Ayatollah Don t expect a Pardon from the president of the United  that leads to a last Factor in the calculation of How foreign policy May affect the Campaign. It is one of personality. Republicans like to say that Dukakis is inexperienced in foreign affairs but Reagan had no More experience before he became president. What he had was an ability to project strength Confidence in the country and himself. Dukakis has that Quality too. Not that he has Rea Gan s verbal gifts. But no one listening to him can think he is an Uncertain character a soft touch or a Pessimist about America. When american voters think about foreign policy they look less for details than for a president a person of Confidence and optimism. The new York times Campaign talk won t solve welfare problems for As Long As i have been covering politics in this town i have known to expect one thing in an election year a lot of demagogic eventually mean ingless talk about welfare  i remember 1968 when Richard Nixon made welfare bums and welfare cheats Flash Points in the vocabularies of White americans. He implanted the notion that the average welfare recipient was a fat Black woman with 10 illegitimate children Liv ing on government Money at the Waldorf Astoria hotel. The Nixon people spread the notion across the land that lots of poor women were deliberately get Ting pregnant and having babies to get More welfare Money. Even though the idea was absurd because the extra Money was Nickels and dimes millions of americans believed this canard. Hostility toward welfare Queens has been virulent in every administration since especially in the Reagan administration. When Nixon unleashed his anti welfare diatribes we were in the Early years of two powerful social revolutions the Rush of women into the work Force and the dramatic escalation of the number of House holds headed by women with children under age 6, or even under age 1. Women in the work Force with Young children were Only about 30 percent when Nixon was ranting against welfare. There Are now some 60 percent of women with Young children in the work Force. The idea of federally or employer supported Day care centers was a fledgling Issue in the con Gress in 1969 when lbs carried a powerful program about the tragedies that could befall a boy with Only a Mother in the House a boy left to face tragic temptations while his Mother was at work. I wrote a column about this to boy "j.t.," and Nixon called me off a Tennis court to say by Telephone that he would enact programs to ensure that there would be fewer unsupervised kids in the world of  then when Congress passed a Day care Bill Nixon vetoed it. I am appalled by each of these biennial plunges into mean rhetoric about workfare and other nostrums for reducing the welfare Tab. It seems that our politicians refuse to accept the reality that welfare is for poor people and that As Long As we run this society in a Way that leaves a Large percentage of our people poor we will have a Large welfare Bill. It is Folly to talk of forcing 70 percent of welfare mothers into jobs programs. Real jobs have never been available for most of these women. The jobs at hand too often Are so Low paying that the families headed by these working women still languish in poverty the poorest people in the land. Children left without proper care and supervision become targets for Many sorts of abuses and candidates for another generation of the welfare class. What we need Are lawmakers who have the wis Dom to Deal with the chronic underlying problems that keep the welfare Bill High inadequate Educa Tion for millions of children caught in America s underclass depression level unemployment among Blacks and other minorities hopelessness and rage that devours the ghettos. Until we find a Way to Deal with those prob lems no welfare Reform program is going to be Worth a Damn. 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