European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - August 18, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Sunday August 18, 1991 the stars and stripes b Page 13 commentary . . Plays with wrong deck in hostage Deal the diplomats from the West Israel and the United nations who Are trying to get the hostages freed Are keeping their Mouths zipped about some of the Basic realities underlying the negotiations process. That is fair enough. It is not the Job of those diplomats to serve As educators of the Public about the whole vicious Story of hostage taking How it works or the dangers of it happening again. Their Job is to get the hostages out As soon As possible. But it is important for the rest of us to understand what is going on a mostly for the Sake of the hostages. In Case not All of them Are freed it will help to get them out eventually if the world knows who is keeping them chained. And if All Are freed soon the speaking of the truth might just conceivably dissuade decent nations of the world from following policies that encourage kidnappers to take More hostages for leverage and Reward. The first reality is that if a Deal is worked out and All hostages Are freed it will not be because of the negotiations themselves. It will be because the sponsors and masters of the kidnappers Iran and Syria have in their own Sweet time decided that it is in their Best economic military and political interests to free their victims at least some. Iran desperately wants help from the West to Patch up an Economy shattered by years of fear and fanaticism. So it is calling in the investment it has made in the Kidnap gangs the years of investment of financial and political capital. These gangs which use the name of god to carry out the work of the Devil were organized and sent into Lebanon by Tehran and have paid off by giving Iran years of political leverage. With Fine Candor professor . Ramazani of the University of Virginia summed it All up in a new York times article urging the United states now to fulfil Iran a desire for a major role in the persian Gulf. A the Prospect of the october peace talks reduces the usefulness of Western hostages As a lever to pressure the . And Israel on issues important to Iran a he explains. Plain enough David s. Broder the cat who kept g0min6 Back. Iran could not have protected the gangs without Syria. The gangs seized their victims in syrian dominated Lebanon and kept them mostly in the Bekaan Valley. That bears about the same relationship to Syria As Parris Island does to the United states Marine corps. Now Syria finds itself without soviet Aid and eager to be removed from Washington a Short select pariah list of terrorist nations. Could Iran and Syria have freed the hostages years ago of course. The syrians say they did not want to risk the lives of the hostages. But Syria never used the obvious weapon a threat to execute All kidnappers if one hostage was injured. The iranians done to say anything very much at least they have that much respect for our intelligence. So this is the end game a Syria and Iran trying to make a profitable exit from an Enterprise no longer paying off. But even now the diplomats do not know whether All the hostages will be released or some kept for future body bargaining. Another reality the terrorists and their sponsors have carried off a Fine piece of moral and political fakery. They have linked and equated the prisoners taken by Israel with the hostages. A hostage is a person who has no relationship to a fight Between two parties but is kidnapped by one to exert pressure on the other or on a third party like the always available . That definition precisely fits the Western victims taken in Lebanon but not most of the prisoners of War terrorists or gang leaders captured by the israelis. Maybe that fraud will help free the hostages lets Pray. But if we fail to Sec and state the difference we will be setting ourselves up for another round of hostage taking a a Point that i have heard Only Henry Kissinger make clearly and bravely on abcs night inc. Hostages have been released because after years of hideous Captivity the value has been sucked out of them soviet political prisoners gave exactly the right reaction when they were released from their own Long Captivity glad not grateful. If the kidnappers and their masters Are rewarded with Trade arms and absolution hostages will be taken again. Why not a Low risk Good payoff. Then the West can find at least one responsible party by looking in its own Mirror. C now York time banking storm Cloud threatens Bush Parade anyone with a taste for irony has to be struck by the situation that confronts Republican Campaign planners this summer. At a time when the democrats seem to be stumbling their Way toward throwing the 1992 election the republicans Are privately worried sick by a Are you ready a Bankers and Bank regulators. Among the leading brow wrinkles is the Man who May soon be moving into a leadership role in president Bush a reelection Campaign Secretary of Commerce Robert Mosbacher. The presidents old pal and chief 1988 fund Raiser told me in a recent interview that this concern was the focus of his last discussion with Bush before the president headed to Kennebunkport for vacation. A i saw this happen in Texas a Mosbacher said a and so did he Bush. We can to let it happen again  a a it is a belly Flop in the whole Economy triggered by a credit crunch caused by overextended Banks suddenly tightening their loan policies. Mosbacher and others inside the Bush administration fear that exactly such a crunch is happening across the country and voice their frustration at their inability to Stop it. An election year recession is the worst possible Nightmare for a president. Only twice in the postwar period have recessions occurred in years divisible by four and both times they spelled defeat for the party in Power. The recession that began in april 1960 helped thwart Richard Nixon a bid to succeed Dwight Eisenhower. The downturn from january to july of 1980 helped drive Jimmy Carter from office. Vice president Quayle has brought Back a series of a scr edit crunch warnings from his recent travels having been hammered on the topic by businessmen from Portsmouth n.h., to Salt Lake City. A i get that everywhere i go a Quayle told me recently. A if the financial situation Isnit stabilized and credit loosened a Little in the next three to four months then the possibility of a double dip a second recession on the heels of the one just ended becomes More of a  the Story As the business and administration people Tell it is a variation on the familiar saying that you have to be careful what you wish for because you might get it. In the Wake of the savings and loan Fias co and the Binge of speculative borrowing that fuelled Wall Street takeovers officials not Only wished for More order and discipline in the financial markets they went out and ordered it. Government regulators who had spent most of the 1980s averting their gaze from questionable balance sheets and dubious transactions were told that their jobs were at risk if they okayed Loans that went bad. Now the complaint is that those same regulators Are being  according to the complainants even sound performing Loans by credit worthy borrowers Are not being renewed. A loan officers a Mosbacher said a Are afraid to make Loans because they re afraid  be called before the Bank examiners if not a congressional committee to justify anything that turns  the regular surveys that the Federal Reserve Board makes of Bank lending officers depict the credit crunch at work. The latest issued july 17, focused on construction and a mini Perm Loans which builders and developers use to finance projects for the first five to eight years from the planning stage. A the Survey findings indicate that a significant share of the mini Perm and construction Loans on income properties that have come due in the past 12 months. Were not paid off according to the original terms a the report says. Many of these Loans arc still on the Bankers books. Because of difficulties borrowers have had in arranging permanent or a take out financing for the properties in question. Translated that Means that a real threat exists that the whole construction and development sector along with the Banks that finance it could get into much More serious trouble before election Day. A consistent with responses in previous senior loan officer surveys a the july 17 summary said a most respondents report that they have progressively tightened the terms on which they Are willing to make these Loans so the crunch continues and Mosbacher said a a it a Mot just developers who Are affected. A a it a Small and medium sized businessmen and  in a no expert but to me that smells like economic trouble for the country and political headaches for George Bush. C Tho Washington Post