European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - August 25, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Sunday August 25, 1991 the stars and stripes a Page 13 commentary Tom Wicker soviet hard liners 3-Day bark had no bite the idea of a hard line takeover in Moscow perhaps even a return to the cold War is no longer valid. The discontented hard line apparatchiks of the old soviet Union the inflexible communists the disgruntled military men a All who resented external Retreat and resisted in Tornal change a gathered their strength tried to seize Power and were rebuffed. Their coup do eat was rejected partly owing to their own mistakes and miscalculations but primarily because the soviet people having tasted Freedom and found it to their liking refused to go Back to the old system of control from the top. And that popular determination is the most significant fact to have emerged from three dramatic Days of life and death struggle. In Hindsight the coup seems to have been doomed from the Start but it hardly could have been expected in the beginning that the plotters would prove so indecisive and inept. As Only the most obvious example leaders taking firm action to seize Power surely would have moved Early and effectively to silence Boris Yeltsin. Even before the coup As the elect eded Blanche president of the russian Republic Yeltsin held a position nearly on the same level As Mikhail s. Gorbachev and operated from an even stronger personal Power base. Allowing him the Freedom to provide a Symbol As Well As the fact of resistance was a fatal almost incomprehensible error. It also seems apparent that the coup makers moved before they had indisputable control of the armed forces whose equivocal support was perhaps As important to their failure As Yeltsin a bold performance. The breakdown of soviet Unity and the changing role of the military under Gorbachev should have made the plotters wary of its backing and unwilling to move without it. The timing was bad too a As it usually is for last gasp efforts. The imminent signing of a treaty defining new Power relationships among the republics and with the Central government was the triggering event of the coup the hardliners obviously Felt that they had to act before the treaty went into effect. Yet the very fact that the treaty was about to be effected was bound to mean that the republics would not easily yield to a new Central government clearly opposed to it. In particular the largest and most important Republic Russia with the popular Yeltsin at its head was sure to resist the coup a which meant that even Moscow the capital City and the symbolic site of Central Power could not be subdued easily if at All. Without Quick and Ducci Sive control of Moscow the plotters could have had Little Hope for control of the vast territory of the soviet Union. Even after proclaiming their new government the coup makers did not or could not take another step essential to their purpose they did not take Swift command of broadcasting facilities within the country or to the world. Word that resistance existed continued and was growing came from Moscow from the Start and was not effectively silenced during the three Days of the coup. Above All however those who tried to seize Power either underestimated or ignored the powerful Force for Freedom that obviously exists within the old . The rest of the world misjudged that Force too As few leaders or observers anywhere believed on the coupes first Day that it would be rejected by a people unaccustomed to democracy and restive under the limited reforms attempted by the Gorbachev government. That they did so Shoi ild smooth the path of needed Reform and reorganization within the soviet system whether Gorbachev is fully reinstated or if effective Power now moves to Boris Yeltsin. Neither need tear or can plausibly profess to fear the Power of a reactionary opposition that proved so ineffective. Quot the Good news for americans is that those huge crowds in the streets of Moscow Leningrad and other cities and those tanks retreating before the Peoples determination mean there is no longer a realistic threat a if there Ever was a of a return to the cold War or even to the old style of repressive government in Moscow. Some americans have used that supposed threat to promote huge military expenditures or to thwart closer relations with Moscow but their View a like the sour faced men of the a emergency committee Quot fleeing for Central Asia a has lost All credibility. C to now York times hostage crisis May determine future of Iran by helping free Western hostages iranian president Hashemi a Sfanjani Hopes to reap economic and political rewards crucial to curbing discontent among his people and stifling Radical rivals. A Sfanjani Leader of Iran a pragmatists is painfully aware that unless he can kick Iran a moribund Economy into High gear and quickly he faces Domestic turmoil that will bolster his anti Western opponents. To do that he needs Large scale investment and advanced technology from the West. He has made some advances by building Bridges Over the last two years to end Iran a isolation partly by encouraging contracts with . And european companies. But he is not Likely to get the economic support he needs until the pro iranian zealots holding most of the 11 Western hostages in Lebanon unchain their captives. Recent reports from Iran indicate growing unrest As conditions Worsen with no sign of an economic upswing after More than a decade of War political upheaval and grotesquely inept economic management. Travellers from Iran and opposition sources claim that discontent Over rising prices food and housing shortages and growing unemployment have caused violent protests in Tehran and other cities. A a there a no question that a Sfanjani has big problems a Middle East analyst Hans Heino Kopietz said. A Sfanjani has acknowledged that the country a debt from the Iran Iraq War that ended in 1988 reached $10 billion said Kopietz until recently with London a International Institute for strategic studies and now a consultant. A . Team has reported that the damage to Iran a Economy in the 1980-88 War totalled $50 billion. A Many iranians particularly the big Bazaar merchants Are fed up with the hostage crisis. They see it is an impediment to economic development. They want it out of the Way a Kopietz said. A Sfanjani and his moderate faction Are widely believed to be behind pressure on the lebanese captors to release some of the hostages on humanitarian grounds and As a Goodwill gesture. His eagerness to free the Western hos tages kidnapped by extremist factions organized and funded by Iran in the 1980s, does not Stem from any sudden moral conversion. A Sfanjani is As committed to the islamic revolution As anyone else. But he has realized that the crusade to Export the revolution of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khamenei has failed. If a Sfanjani can help free the hostages the response by the United states and other Western Powers who have held Iran at arms length for More than a decade could be Swift and beneficial. Diplomatic relations with the United states severed in 1979, could be resumed within a year Kopietz said. The americans will Likely move to resolve the Issue of Iran a estimated $12 billion in assets Frozen in the United states since 1979, funds that Iran badly needs. The United states will also Likely Stop blocking iranian Oil imports the country a economic lifeline and restore Trade. European nations would move to restore Export credit guarantees analysts believe. Despite a liberalizing trend in social practices and economics under a Sfanjani there is still considerable anti Western hostility in Iran. This is a potent Force the radicals could exploit. The radicals led by former Interior minister Ali Akbar Mohtashemi Are virulently anti Western and consider themselves the True heirs of Khomeini who died in june 1989. They believe rats Anjanie a policies betray Khomeini a revolutionary teachings and will open the door once More to the foreign economic domination that existed under the late Shah. Until recently a Sfanjani appeared to have gained the upper hand in the Power struggle. But the radicals remain deeply entrenched in the bloated iranian bureaucracy and could undermine his efforts. A the radicals Are try ing to put a Sfanjani on the run. They see a Chance to exploit his failure to revive the Economy and improve conditions a Kopietz said. Cult offs note de Blanche is Tho Middle East news Eduora Lor the associated press and has covered the Region since a Jib