European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - September 20, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes thursday september 20,1990columns David Broder democrats demise rooted in agreement Iota can be sure i la be ri6ht Buhl new when no cd so meet the press teamed Bob Dole and Thomas a Foley As guests the producers must have assumed that their audience knew without being told that Dole is the Senate Republican Leader and Foley is the democratic speaker of the House. But nothing they said would have Given you a clue to their partisanship. They agreed on everything that president Bush is handling the persian Gulf crisis just right that americans allies should Bear More of the costs of the mobilization against Iraq that the United states should sell a huge amount of arms to saudi Arabia and that Egypt a and eventually israelis debts to the United states should be forgiven. They agreed that the budget Summit must and would succeed that medicare cannot be exempted from spending cuts that new revenues should come from those with the greatest ability to pay. Most enthusiastically they agreed that House minority whip Newt Gingrich a a had disturbed their precious Harmony by saying Nasty things about the political opposition. And in Case you were in doubt each of them said the other was a swell fellow. Welcome to the wonderful world of bipartisanship. Democrats stand foursquare behind Bush in the showdown with Saddam Hussein. Democrats Are disarmed and beguiled by Bush a first supreme court nominee judge David h. Souter. Democrats go the extra mile in search of a budget agreement. Sweet Harmony is so soothing that Only the churlish would seek to upset it. When such Harmony Breaks out six weeks before the midterm election however it does cause problems for some people. Those suffering the most Are White House speechwriters and democratic Campaign strategists. The former Are clearly struggling to invent boilerplate arguments that Bush can employ on his frequent Campaign excursions to the states where republicans Are challenging democratic incumbents. They really have to reach to make the Over helpful democrats look like deadly enemies. But the democrats have the deeper problem As the issues Between the parties blur or disappear its always harder for Jim Fain democrats to mobilize their Core electorate a which is less attentive to politics a than it is for the republicans to do so. Democrats need emotional issues and Bush a bipartisanship is eliminating them. After the Webster decision and the 1989 off year elections some democrats believed that abortion rights would provide a rallying cry. But Bush finessed them with the Souter nomination. While the major abortion rights organizations said Souter a silence on the subject is enough to deny him a seat on the High court it is Clear that most democratic senators Are Likely to vote for the Bush nominee a and Hope that he does not become the fifth vote to overturn Roe is. Wade. The democratic Bac Down is even More obvious on the issues in Bush a budget deficit Summit. With the Economy skirting recession and Public pessimism deepening about the economic future the stage seemed set for an old fashioned pocketbook election. Many prominent democrats including Foley a Deputy House majority Leader Richard Gephardt Doha been sharpening the rhetoric against Bush so tax cuts for the  and yet there came Foley saying on a meet the press that democrats a could conceivably agree to Bush a capital gains tax cuts a if the president accepted some kind of compensatory tax hike for the wealthy. None of this May Cost the democrats much in 1990. Virtually All their House and Senate incumbents look secure. Gubernatorial elections have their own dynamics and the democrats appear Likely to make some significant statehouse pickups. But Over time the failure to draw Sharp distinctions with the Republican president and to find issues on which to mobilize their base vote will cripple the democrats chances of regaining the White House. That reality is underlined by a new times Mirror voters study. Using a sophisticated system of classifying the electorate by both values and partisanship the study shows the continuing decline of the democratic coalition. Older new Deal democrats Are dying off now constituting Only 7 percent of the electorate. Another group called a the partisan poor a which includes Many minorities has been the most reliable part of the democratic coalition. But in the last three years it has become much less so. These voters see the republicans As the party of the Rich but their growing distrust of All politicians makes them much less reliably democratic. Combine that with the growing scepticism the Survey finds among the Best educated voting groups about the democrats ability to nominate Able candidates to manage the Economy or to run the government and you have a formula for Long term frustration of democratic designs on the White House. 9i99& what All this Means is that consensus on the issues the message of the Foley Dole interview a is something that republicans can easily tolerate for now because powerful Long term political and demographic forces Are weakening the democrats. For the democrats however consensus inevitably spells decline. C Washington Post writers group the opinions expressed in the columns and cartoons on this Page represent those of the authors and Are in no Way to be considered As representing the views of the stars and stripes or the United states  says air strikes alone done twin wars defense Secretary Dick Cheney got it right for the wrong reason when he fired his air Force chief of staff Gen. Michael j. Dugan. The Washington Post had spread across its sunday front Page an interview with Dugan in which he argued for massive bombing of Iraq. By hitting Baghdad and if possible Saddam Hussein we could avoid a bloody land War he said. Poppycock. If the history of combat proves anything it is that wars cannot be won by bombing alone. Japan is the Only nation to surrender on such a basis and its troops had been pushed thousands of Miles across the Pacific in ground and naval Battles. Even so it took the atom bomb. The Bush administration sacked Dugan for talking out of turn. It is nervous about threatening any kind of offensive against Iraq mainly to avoid creating sympathy for Saddam among arabs but partly to prevent a Public backfire in this country. Cheney did not counter Dugans claim that the joint chiefs had agreed that bombing is a the Only answer that a available to our country to avoid costly land fighting. 4 this is the Crux of the problem however. If True it proves the joint chiefs incompetent unable to grasp the unmistakable lessons of history. It says they re still looking for and encouraging decision makers to expect a cheap fix. There a no such animal. In world War ii Germany Britain and Russia underwent carpet bombing for years. It wreaked enormous damage and human suffering but it Only stiffened the resolves of both military and civilian populations. The classic example is Vietnam where our air units were largely unopposed where we dropped Many More tons of bombs than exploded in All of world War ii. The israelis have gained air supremacy quickly in each of their wars and have used it with deadly effect in support of their armoured units but they be won where wars always Are won a on the ground. True desert fighting is far More influenced by air Power than is Jungle warfare. As on the sea offensive air support is decisive on the desert. It can Seal off battlefields from Supply and reinforcement As Well As destroy tanks munitions and troops. But you still have to have the grunts and tanks to take and hold ground strategic bombing alone never can get that Job done. Not Many will mourn if Saddam is eliminated from the heavens but his going is unlikely to end the fighting. Targeting his mistress another idea floated in the Post article seems a Tad much. Bush and his Pentagon so far have made sound decisions unlike Vietnam where our piecemeal commitments were the costliest course we could have chosen. They Are building up huge forces on the ground in the air and in neighbouring seas. There should be no thought of going to the offensive until the buildup is Complete about three months from now. Strategic bombing can be tried then if we decide finally that we can to get Saddam out of Kuwait without using Force. With a bully like that you never know. He s got the whole world against him. Strategic bombing might give him an excuse for backing Down. But if he decides to go for broke it will not bring him to his Knees. Dugan obviously had to go. They should have canned him though for mistaking the limits of his military a a not his political a Power. C Cox news service